Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Force in Play

Leadership decimated; command structures targeted; retaliatory capability significantly degraded; succession unclear

Operation Epic Fury, launched jointly by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026, has escalated dramatically into its third week with expanded targeting, regional escalation to Gulf state civilian infrastructure, and the first significant fracture within the Trump administration's national security apparatus. By March 17, the campaign had struck more than 15,000 Iranian targets using precision munitions, destroyed over 20 Iranian naval vessels including the country's top submarine, and killed 49 senior Iranian regime leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On March 13, US forces executed a large-scale precision strike on Kharg Island—Iran's critical oil export hub—destroying 90+ military targets including naval mine storage facilities and missile bunkers while deliberately preserving oil infrastructure as a strategic warning. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones across the Persian Gulf region, killing at least 13 American service members and escalating attacks on non-US targets in neighboring Gulf states, including fatal strikes on Abu Dhabi and drone attacks near Dubai's airport and Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. On March 17, Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, became the first senior Trump administration official to resign over the war, stating Iran "posed no imminent threat" and that the US entered the conflict "due to pressure from Israel." The operation represents the largest sustained US aerial campaign in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, but now faces mounting questions about its legal basis, military end state, and whether an air war can achieve the administration's promise of "freedom for Iran."

Updated 3 hours ago

Built World

Conducting retaliatory strikes across Gulf region

Dubai International Airport processed 95.2 million passengers in 2025 and overtook Atlanta in January 2026 as the world's busiest airport. On March 1, Iranian retaliatory missiles and drones struck its terminals, forcing a full evacuation and suspending all operations. On March 16—16 days into the conflict—a drone struck a fuel tank near the airport, reigniting flight suspensions and forcing Emirates to cancel additional flights despite partial airspace reopening. Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Kuwait airports shut down simultaneously on February 28, severing the three Gulf hubs that together route a large share of long-haul traffic between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Updated Yesterday

Built World

Claims full control of Hormuz; warns attacks on aggressors/allies; continues missile/drone ops

Entering its third week, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has pushed Brent crude to $104.22 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western shipping. President Trump is preparing to announce an international coalition to escort commercial vessels through the strait, with the White House signaling the announcement could come as soon as this week. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged on March 15 that the U.S. military is not yet ready to begin escort operations, stating 'It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready.' Japan released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves on March 16, and the IEA projects an 8-million-barrel-per-day production decline for March. U.S. gasoline averages $3.70 per gallon after jumping more than 70 cents since the operation began.

Updated Yesterday

Force in Play

Continues Hormuz blockade enforcement amid U.S. Kharg strikes; vows harshest blows

The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective Iranian control as new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows to maintain the blockade as 'leverage' and urges Gulf states to expel U.S. bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues coordinated attacks on commercial shipping, stranding over 1,000 vessels worth $25 billion in the Persian Gulf; Iraq has halted 1.5 million barrels per day of production, QatarEnergy's LNG facilities are offline, and Saudi Aramco cut output by 20% to 8 million barrels per day as storage overflows. A March 14 drone attack caused fire at UAE's Fujairah port, partially suspending operations at this key oil hub outside the strait.

Updated 3 days ago

Force in Play

Directing Iran's retaliatory campaign

For more than four decades, US embassies in the Middle East and Africa have faced bombings, sieges, and missile strikes. None has been attacked in Western Europe — until an incendiary device detonated at the entrance of the US Embassy in Oslo at 1:00 a.m. on March 8, shattering windows and sending smoke into the street. No one was injured. Norwegian police say terrorism is one hypothesis under investigation, and they are weighing whether the blast is connected to the eight-day-old US-Iran war.

Updated Mar 8

Force in Play

Operating independently of presidential authority during wartime

Iran's Supreme Leader controlled both the presidency and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for over four decades. Eight days after a joint United States-Israeli airstrike killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that unified chain of command has visibly fractured: President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a halt to strikes on neighboring countries and personally apologized to Gulf states for hitting their civilian infrastructure, only for the IRGC to strike a U.S. air base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hours later and issue a statement telling the public to 'ignore Pezeshkian's words during the war.'

Updated Mar 8

Force in Play

Conducting retaliatory strikes across the Gulf under new leadership

For over two weeks since February 28, the US-Iran war has primarily targeted military sites and oil facilities. The March 8 Iranian drone strike damaging a Bahrain desalination plant marked the first confirmed hit on Gulf water infrastructure, injuring three people and damaging a university building. Bahrain's water authority reported no supply disruptions, but the attack followed a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island plant days earlier that cut water to 30 villages.

Updated Mar 8

Force in Play

Command structure severely degraded; interim council and remaining branches facing sustained US-Israeli strikes that have reportedly destroyed much of Iran’s missile arsenal and portions of its navy while Tehran continues regional retaliation.

Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as supreme leader for 36 years until joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, killed him along with family members and multiple top military and intelligence officials at his Tehran compound, triggering an opaque succession process under fire. With the Assembly of Experts’ Qom site damaged in Israeli strikes and its deliberations driven underground, acting leader Ali Larijani faces a power vacuum in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ interim command council is trying to preserve operational control while missiles and drones continue to fly across the region.

Updated Mar 7

Force in Play

Senior leadership decimated; naval assets targeted in Indian Ocean

For four decades, the United States and Iran avoided direct, large-scale war. That changed on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership compounds, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The assault followed collapsed indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Gulf, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Embassy in Riyadh.

Updated Mar 4

Force in Play

Consolidates power amid succession crisis; Qalibaf faction positioning for Supreme Leader role; sustains proxy operations via Hezbollah

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has been operational in the Arabian Sea since late January 2026, with the USS Gerald R. Ford joining in the Mediterranean, creating dual-carrier presence amid Iran's crackdown on protests that began in December 2025. On February 25, the U.S. deployed 12 F-22 Raptors to Israel's Ovda Airbase, the first such deployment, alongside KC-46 tankers at Ben Gurion in the largest Middle East buildup since 2003. On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched 'Operation Epic Fury,' striking Iranian nuclear sites, naval forces, and military infrastructure, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated on March 1 with missile and drone barrages on 27 U.S. bases, Israeli headquarters in Tel Aviv, and Gulf sites in UAE, Qatar, and other nations, causing civilian casualties.

Updated Mar 2

Force in Play

Primary force conducting crackdown

On February 14, 2026, an estimated 250,000 people marched through Munich during the Munich Security Conference, the largest protest ever held in Europe against Iran's government. The same day, 350,000 gathered in Toronto and 60,000 in Los Angeles—part of a coordinated Global Day of Action called by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, who has lived outside Iran for 47 years. Reports indicate over one million participated worldwide.

Updated Feb 15

Force in Play

Targeted by new Australian sanctions; fears of US strikes reigniting unrest

Iran's last nationwide uprising killed roughly 500 people over several months in 2022. The current one has killed at least 6,842 people—and possibly more than 30,000—in just over five weeks. On January 24, 2026, the UN Human Rights Council voted 25-7 to extend an independent investigation into what officials are calling the deadliest mass killing in Iran's contemporary history. By January 27, the U.S. had deployed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East as President Trump weighs military strikes; leaked documents now reveal Supreme Leader Khamenei approved a premeditated blueprint for the crackdown months in advance.[1][2]

Updated Feb 4

Rule Changes

Now designated as terrorist organization by EU, US, Canada, Australia

For over two decades, the European Union resisted designating Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, wary of severing diplomatic ties with Tehran. On January 29, 2026, that resistance collapsed. All 27 EU foreign ministers voted unanimously to place the IRGC on the same legal footing as al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Islamic State—a designation that triggers automatic asset freezes and travel bans across the bloc. Within hours, the United Kingdom signaled it would follow suit with separate legislation targeting hostile state agencies.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Designated as terrorist organization by EU; 214 members killed in protests

Bazaar merchants bankrolled Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Now they're in the streets demanding its end. What began December 28 as protests over the rial's collapse to record lows escalated into the largest uprising in the Islamic Republic's 46-year history—spreading to all 31 provinces and uniting working-class laborers, students, and merchants in calls for regime change. The death toll remains highly disputed: activist groups have verified at least 6,100 killed, while leaked government documents suggest 27,500-36,500 deaths. By January 17, the regime had reestablished control through unprecedented force, killing an estimated 147 security personnel in the process.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Designated terrorist organization by EU on January 29, placed on same list as al-Qaeda and ISIS; faces asset freezes, funding prohibition, travel bans; led massacre that killed at least 6,126; hundreds of junior officers defected; carried out at least 52 executions

Iran's nationwide uprising, which began when Tehran's bazaaris marched on December 28, 2025, was crushed through what may be the deadliest massacre in the Islamic Republic's history. While early reports during the internet blackout confirmed 572 deaths, evidence emerging after partial internet restoration in late January reveals at least 6,126 people killed according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency—with some estimates ranging from 12,000 to over 36,500. Most deaths occurred during a 48-hour period on January 8-9 when Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces opened fire on protesters across all 31 provinces. On January 17, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly acknowledged 'several thousand' people had been killed, while President Trump called him a 'sick man' and declared 'it's time to look for new leadership in Iran.' Over 42,000 have been detained, with at least 52 executions already carried out and the judiciary threatening swift trials for thousands more under 'mohareb' (enemy of God) charges.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Continuing crackdown operations; reports of chemical weapons use

The Islamic Republic has survived four decades of protests—but never anything like this. What began on December 28 as Tehran bazaar merchants protesting a collapsing currency became Iran's largest uprising since the 1979 revolution, with demonstrations reported in all 31 provinces. The government responded with an internet blackout and live ammunition. On January 21, Iran issued its first official death toll: 3,117 killed. Independent monitors report dramatically higher figures—the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency documented at least 5,002 deaths as of January 23, while a network of Iranian doctors estimates 16,500-18,000 killed and 330,000 injured, making this potentially the deadliest crackdown in modern Iranian history.

Updated Jan 23

Force in Play

Deployed tens of thousands to lock down Tehran; fears defections but none confirmed; lost at least 10 members in Kermanshah clashes

On December 28, shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their stalls and took to the streets. The Iranian rial had just hit 1.4 million to the dollar—double its value from a year earlier. Within days, the protests spread to all 31 provinces, evolved from economic grievances into demands for regime change, and drew comparisons to the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic to power.

Updated Jan 20

Force in Play

Leading crackdown on protesters with live ammunition

Iran's judiciary chief announced January 14 that detained protesters face fast-track trials and executions despite Trump's warning of "very strong action," as the death toll reached at least 2,571 according to Human Rights Activists News Agency—quadrupling in just two days and exceeding any crackdown since the 1979 revolution. Erfan Soltani, 26, became the first protester sentenced to death after a four-day proceeding without legal representation, though his execution was postponed amid international outcry. The U.S. began evacuating hundreds of troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar—home to 10,000 personnel and Central Command's forward headquarters—positioning them out of range should Trump's threatened strikes trigger Iranian missile retaliation.

Updated Jan 14

Force in Play

Leading violent crackdown with live fire on protesters

The Iranian rial lost half its value in six months. On December 28, merchants shut down Tehran's Grand Bazaar—the same traders who helped topple the Shah in 1979. Within two weeks, what began as shopkeeper strikes morphed into the largest uprising since the Islamic Revolution. Now, after five days of near-total internet blackout, the death toll has exploded: credible estimates range from 500 to over 3,000 killed as the IRGC fires live ammunition into crowds hidden from the world's view.

Updated Jan 13