Brent falls below $90 for the first time since August as Trump holds off on new strikes; Iran's security chief says the strait stays closed
Oil prices have fallen sharply. Brent touched $89.65 on November 10, its lowest since August 31, and traded near $92, about 23% below the October 30 peak near $118. President Trump said he would hold off on further strikes on Iran after appeals from regional countries, while keeping the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Attacks have not stopped. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 ships attacked in October, the highest monthly total of the war, and the International Maritime Organization has confirmed 130 incidents with at least 25 seafarers killed. On November 10 an ADNOC vessel was damaged in UAE waters and a tanker was struck off Oman. Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the strait remains closed.
Why it matters
A fifth of the world's oil still runs through a contested strait, and the disruption is feeding inflation and recession risk worldwide.
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Waves crash on the rocky shore of Hormoz Island, Iran with clear blue skies.
Straits of Hormuz between Oman and Iran
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"How perfectly civilized of us — we assassinate a man and then act bewildered that his friends are cross about it."
Iran's elite military force, which controls the country's missile program and naval operations in the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz.
The alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner producers including Russia, which collectively manages roughly 40% of global oil output.
A multinational defensive and support operation for merchant shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, coordinated by France, Britain, Germany, and Italy in response to the Iran crisis.
Pakistan emerged as the key mediator between the United States and Iran in April 2026, brokering the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7–8 and hosting direct negotiations in Islamabad.
Oman stepped in as a second mediation track after the Pakistan framework collapsed. It has historically served as the most trusted back-channel between Washington and Tehran.
February 2025 November 2026
ADNOC said one of its vessels was damaged in an attack in UAE territorial waters. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile about 35 kilometres northeast of Lima, Oman. The Revolutionary Guard said two tankers hit naval mines in the strait. The International Maritime Organization has confirmed 130 incidents in the region since the war began, with at least 25 seafarers killed.
Brent touched $89.65 on Tuesday, its lowest since August 31, before trading near $92. It settled Monday at $92.57, down 5.85%, roughly 23% below its October 30 peak near $118. WTI traded near $86.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Washington had not given an acceptable response to Tehran's conditions and that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Trump said he would hold off on further military strikes on Iran after appeals from regional countries, but would maintain the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
A tanker caught fire about eight nautical miles northwest of Khasab, Oman, on Saturday evening and its crew was evacuated, UK Maritime Trade Operations said. On Sunday the Revolutionary Guard said three tankers had caught fire on what it called an illegal route; Reuters could not confirm the Iranian account.
Video verified by Reuters showed damage to an Aramco office building in Riyadh after missile strikes claimed by the Houthis on November 8. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said debris caused limited damage and no injuries.
US Central Command said a US military aircraft fired on and disabled a St Kitts-flagged cargo vessel that tried to leave regional waters after visiting an Iranian port.
Republicans lost the November 3 midterm elections. Analysts later pointed to Trump's more conciliatory tone on Iran since the defeat.
The Revolutionary Guard said three oil tankers had incidents on routes it does not authorize, in the eastern and western parts of the strait. It said one supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels struck a mine and exploded. The Guard gave no vessel names, flags or crew details.
Oman's Maritime Security Center said the Royal Navy of Oman evacuated 25 crew from a Panama-flagged commercial vessel that was attacked and caught fire about 1.6 nautical miles off Musandam. The crew received medical care. No one has claimed the attack.
Qatari mediators went back to Tehran to try to broker an agreement between Iran and the United States. The two sides still disagree on sequencing: Washington wants all issues on the table early, while Tehran wants the US to lift its port blockade and oil export restrictions first.
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the strait's main shipping lanes have been cleared of Iranian naval mines. He also said Iran's navy has been destroyed and the Revolutionary Guard no longer operates in the waterway. Iran has not confirmed this.
Brent front-month futures for December delivery rose more than 2% and briefly topped $117 a barrel. Analysts cited fears of renewed US-Iran hostilities, shrinking stocks and higher shipping costs.
UK Maritime Trade Operations said a boat attached two explosive devices to the tanker above the waterline about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The blasts started an engine-room fire, which was put out with no injuries or pollution reported. The vessel resumed its voyage.
After the US destroyed much of Iran's radar, the IRGC began using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify targets and expanded attacks into the Gulf of Oman and waters off Qatar and the UAE. Officials said Tehran is moving toward complete closure of the strait for non-compliant vessels; Brent settled near $106. A suspected Houthi strike hit Saudi Aramco's headquarters.
Multiple vessels were hit, including two outbound tankers and one at anchorage near Oman's Sohar port, where ship-to-ship transfers occur. The shuttle system uses tankers coordinated with the US military through southern corridors near Oman; the IRGC said three tankers suffered major damage from mines.
The IRGC Navy said an unnamed crude supertanker hit a naval mine and caught fire while using an unauthorized route through the waterway. Kpler data showed crude through the strait averaged 8.5 million barrels per day for the week ended October 7, about 40% below normal.
Kpler data showed Gulf crude flows excluding Iran exceeded 81% of pre-war levels in September, with wider Middle East exports above pre-war levels on 14 days that month. Iran's latest proposal (a ceasefire on all fronts, the US lifting its blockade and sanctions, and the Strait reopening in seven days before nuclear talks) gained no traction.
Trump rejected Iran's late-September proposal to reopen the Strait and restart negotiations, saying Iran wanted a deal because it was 'losing so badly' but that the offer 'would not be acceptable.' Mediators continued working on a framework.
CENTCOM says that since the blockade was reimposed in mid-July, US forces have disabled four commercial vessels, turned around 135 ships, and destroyed 10 tankers linked to Iran. Washington says Tehran has exported no oil through the blockade line.
The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding in June that briefly eased the conflict before breaking down. Iran now demands a return to the collapsed agreement as a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump declared the ceasefire on 'massive life support' after calling Iran's proposal 'simply unacceptable.' Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US is making unreasonable demands, and no new talks were scheduled.
Iran delivered its formal response to the US 14-point proposal through Pakistan's mediation channel. Trump immediately rejected it as 'totally unacceptable' and accused Tehran of 'playing games'; the proposal requires Iran to halt enrichment for 12 years and transfer 440 kilograms of enriched uranium.
A fourth round of high-level talks was held in Oman. Both sides described the discussions as 'difficult but constructive' and agreed to continue negotiations.
CNN reported that US intelligence says Khamenei has been absent from public view for over 60 days after sustaining serious injuries. US officials told CNN they cannot reliably reach him, which they say is a core obstacle to any binding deal.
US forces disabled the Iranian tankers M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda with precision munitions during blockade enforcement. Trump simultaneously imposed sanctions on 12 companies and individuals facilitating Iranian crude sales to China.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired eight cruise missiles and 24 suicide drones at three US destroyers in its largest single naval attack of the conflict. US forces struck Iranian coastal installations at Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island in response.
Trump paused the convoy escort operation, citing 'very good talks'; oil prices fell more than 7% on deal hopes. US F/A-18s disabled the Iranian tanker M/T Hasna with cannon fire to its rudder. A French container ship was struck in a separate escalation near the strait.
The US-Israeli joint military campaign Operation Epic Fury reached its official end date. Oil prices surged and Brent climbed toward $115 as violence at the strait intensified.
Iranian forces fired missiles at two US destroyers and launched a drone strike that sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. US naval forces sank six Iranian boats during the exchange.
Trump announced the US would begin escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz starting May 4, applying pressure on Iran ahead of renewed talks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met President Putin at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library in St. Petersburg. Putin praised Iran's 'courage' and reaffirmed Russia's strategic partnership as Iran sought a diplomatic channel outside the collapsed Pakistan framework.
President Trump abruptly canceled plans for special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to travel to Pakistan for Iran peace talks, posting on Truth Social: 'Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!' Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had briefly returned to Islamabad for talks before departing—first leaving Pakistan and then traveling to Moscow—signaling Tehran is seeking alternative diplomatic channels through Russia.
Iran's Parliament Speaker and lead peace negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was forced out by IRGC hard-liners, deepening the rift between the Guard and civilian foreign ministry. Simultaneously, CNN reported the Pentagon was developing strike plans targeting Iran's Hormuz defenses—fast-attack boats, mine-laying vessels, and coastal missile batteries—if the ceasefire fails. Options also include targeting individual Iranian military leaders. Brent crude topped $105 on the combined news.
Pentagon officials told Congress that clearing Iranian naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz would take approximately six months even under active operations. Separately, U.S. intelligence sources told Axios that Iran was continuing to deploy additional mines in the strait, compounding the clearance timeline and extending the window during which commercial transit remains unsafe.
President Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran pending a 'unified proposal' from Tehran, citing open infighting between IRGC generals and civilian negotiators. The U.S. naval blockade and mine-clearing operations continued uninterrupted. An adviser to Iran's parliament called the extension 'a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike.'
U.S. destroyer USS Spruance disabled the Iranian cargo ship Touska by firing into its engine room during enforcement of the naval blockade. Iran condemned the action as a ceasefire violation. Oil prices jumped as both sides traded accusations of breaking the Pakistan-brokered truce.
Iran's IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz to all foreign commercial shipping in direct retaliation for the U.S. naval blockade of its ports, recreating the dual blockade that has since reduced transit through the waterway to near-zero. Iran had briefly opened the strait during the ceasefire period.
After direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 11–12 without agreement despite 21 hours of talks, President Trump announced a full naval blockade of Iran, barring Iran-linked vessels from Gulf ports. U.S. Navy mine clearance operations in the Strait also began. Oil prices climbed back toward $100 per barrel on the announcement.
President Trump announced a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire halting U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran; Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and enter direct negotiations in Islamabad. Iran rejected an earlier 45-day framework proposed on April 5, instead submitting its own 10-point plan covering sanctions relief, war reparations, nuclear issues, and reconstruction.
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed strike on South Pars plant at Asaluyeh (50% of Iran's petrochemical production), a key revenue source for war effort. Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel and Gulf neighbors as mediators circulate 45-day ceasefire proposal.
S&P 500 futures drop 0.7%, VIX surges 41% to 26.95 as markets react to Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissing negotiations; Trump's March 23 five-day delay on power plant strikes nears end amid ongoing Hormuz blockade.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol declares the world faces an energy crisis worse than the twin oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 combined, with 11 million barrels per day removed from global supply. Global stock selloff extends as Brent crude surges above $110 and WTI trades near $100.
Retaliating for Israel's South Pars strike, Iran hits Qatar Ras Laffan LNG (20% global supply), Kuwait Mina Al-Ahmadi/Abdullah refineries, Saudi Samref Yanbu refinery, UAE Habshan gas/Bab field; UAE shuts facilities as precaution.
President Trump downplays challenges of clearing Strait amid IRGC asymmetric threats (drones, speedboats, mines); urges China, France, Japan, South Korea, UK to deploy warships as Iranian oil exports to China continue at ~1M bpd.
President Trump states U.S. heavily bombed military targets on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub and Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz 'soon, very soon' if blockade continues.
Fire at Fujairah storage facilities after intercepted Iranian drone debris partially suspends oil loading at key Gulf hub handling 1.8M bpd; Iran warns of strikes on U.S.-linked regional energy sites.
Trump officials state Navy escorts 'soon' pending air superiority; crude drops below $100 despite war entering day 14 amid reserve release hopes.
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei delivers first public remarks via state media, vowing to continue using the Strait of Hormuz blockade as 'leverage,' calling on Gulf states to expel U.S. bases, and pledging to avenge martyrs. Oil surges past $100/barrel on the statement.
The International Energy Agency announces that 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize markets. Crude oil surges past $100/barrel on March 12 morning (reached $117 earlier in week). Export volumes operating at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels.
IRGC strikes hit at least three vessels overnight, including German-chartered Source Blessing struck by projectile shrapnel near Basra (fire extinguished, crew safe). U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirms escort operations are 'not ready' and will take weeks, contradicting earlier claims of successful tanker escort on March 10.
Intelligence data shows Iran continues loading approximately 1.5 million barrels of crude daily in March while China receives about 1.25 million barrels daily, maintaining its own export corridor while enforcing blockade on international shipping.
IRGC launched coordinated wave of drone and missile attacks on at least three commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz (Mayuree Naree, ONE Majesty, Star Gwyneth); U.S. military confirmed Iran planting naval mines and destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers; Pentagon disclosed approximately 140 U.S. service members wounded in first 10 days of operations; Iranian drones also struck Dubai International Airport, injuring four people.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced France is deploying a dozen ships to the Middle East under Operation Aspides, a 'purely defensive, purely support' escort mission for merchant vessels. Britain, Germany, and Italy are coordinating to support commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari announced Iran will begin targeting banks across the Middle East linked to the U.S. and Israel, warning civilians to stay at least one kilometer away from financial centers in the region.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told parliament that U.S. and Israeli military actions may have violated international law, calling for swift accountability for civilian casualties including 168 children killed in a school strike. Greece announced three-month caps on profit margins for gasoline and foodstuffs to prevent price surging.
A Sri Lankan court ordered the return of bodies of 84 Iranian soldiers killed when the U.S. submarine-launched torpedo struck the Iranian warship IRIS Dena off Sri Lanka's coast on March 5. Thirty-two crew members survived the attack.
President Trump tells CBS News ships are still transiting Hormuz, war will end 'very soon,' and he is considering U.S. takeover if Iran interferes further; WTI drops to $87, Brent to $91. IRGC sets new conditions for passage requiring expulsion of U.S./Israeli ambassadors; U.S. Defense Sec. Hegseth warns of harsher strikes if oil flow blocked.
Iranian forces launched coordinated missile and drone attacks on tankers exiting Persian Gulf, prompting insurers to declare strait unpassable; only one Iranian bulk carrier transited amid de facto blockade entering day 7. Brent surged past $115 (24% daily), WTI hit $120 (30-40% weekly), stranding 1,000+ vessels.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims drone attacks on the oil tanker Prima in the Persian Gulf and the U.S.-linked tanker Louise P in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting continued risks to commercial shipping amid the blockade.
West Texas Intermediate crude posts a record 36% weekly gain and climbs above $90 per barrel as more than 350 commercial vessels remain stranded in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Iraq shuts around 1.5 million barrels per day of output due to storage limits.
IRGC announced the strait under 'complete control of the Islamic Republic's Navy,' halting all tanker traffic which carries 20-30% of global oil and gas. VLCC freight rates hit record $423,736/day as insurers withdraw Gulf coverage. Brent crude surged past $82/barrel.
U.S. futures extended selloff with Dow down 494 points (1%), S&P 500 futures -1.05%, Nasdaq -1.33%; Brent crude hit $78.41/barrel highest since June 2025; gold rallied to $5,270/oz as safe-haven buying intensified amid Hormuz fears.
Brent crude jumps as much as 13% to over $82 before settling around $78. The Dow drops 282 points, the S&P 500 loses 0.5%, and the Nasdaq declines 0.4%. Defense stocks surge while airlines and travel stocks plunge. Gold rises nearly 2% and the VIX hits its highest level of 2026.
Iran launches roughly 170 ballistic missiles at Israel, U.S. bases in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. At least three people killed in the UAE and eight in Israel. The IRGC claims it targeted 27 U.S. military installations and the USS Abraham Lincoln.
The IRGC broadcasts radio warnings that no ships may pass through the Strait of Hormuz and strikes at least three tankers, including one off Oman that catches fire. Tanker traffic drops approximately 70%. Maersk and other major shippers suspend all Gulf transits.
OPEC+'s V8 group agrees to a 206,000 barrel-per-day production increase for April, above the 137,000 bpd analysts had forecast but far below the 400,000–500,000 bpd some said was needed. Analysts warn the increase is meaningless if oil cannot transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes hit over 1,000 sites across Iran using Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and attack drones. Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior military commanders are killed during a national security council meeting. Three U.S. service members are killed.
Six IRGC Navy gunboats approach the U.S.-flagged tanker M/V Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz and order it to stop. The tanker accelerates and the guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul escorts it to safety.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group reaches the Gulf as part of the largest U.S. military deployment to the Middle East since the Iraq invasion, including a second carrier group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford.
A U.S.- and Qatari-mediated ceasefire takes effect. Iran reports at least 610 citizens killed; Israel reports 28 deaths. The ceasefire holds into 2026 despite early violations.
On Trump's orders, the U.S. strikes the Fordow and Natanz enrichment facilities and the Isfahan nuclear technology center with bunker-buster munitions.
Israel begins Operation Rising Lion, striking military leaders, nuclear scientists, and nuclear facilities across Iran. The scheduled sixth round of U.S.-Iran talks is indefinitely suspended.
The IAEA declares Iran in non-compliance with its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty safeguards agreement for the first time since 2005, citing a stockpile of over 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity.
The first round of Omani-mediated nuclear talks opens in Muscat, followed by a second round in Rome on April 19.
Trump sends a letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei demanding full nuclear disarmament and an end to support for proxy groups, offering sanctions relief in exchange. Iran initially calls it 'a deception,' but reverses course weeks later.
President Trump signs executive memorandum restoring maximum sanctions on Iran, directing Treasury to impose maximum economic pressure and State Department to drive Iranian oil exports to zero.
Discussed by: Atlantic Council analysts and U.S. Central Command briefings suggesting the U.S. Navy is already engaging IRGC naval assets
The U.S. Navy, which has already sunk at least nine Iranian warships according to Axios, establishes a protected corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and provides convoy escorts for commercial tankers. Insurance markets adjust, major shippers resume transits, and oil prices settle in the $75–85 range. This outcome depends on the U.S. neutralizing Iran's coastal anti-ship missile batteries and the IRGC running out of capacity to threaten commercial shipping. In this scenario, the price spike is sharp but short-lived—weeks, not months.
Discussed by: BloombergNEF models projecting $91/barrel by late 2026 under sustained disruption; Barclays and UBS analysts modeling $100–$120 scenarios
Iran's mine-laying capability, coastal missile batteries, and drone arsenal prove harder to neutralize than expected. Tanker insurance rates soar, keeping commercial traffic away even as the U.S. Navy operates in the area. Iran's 1.6 million barrels per day of exports—mostly to China—go offline. With 20% of seaborne oil effectively bottlenecked, Brent climbs past $100, gasoline exceeds $4 per gallon across the U.S., and the inflationary shock tips a fragile global economy toward recession. This is the scenario that makes the 1973 and 1979 oil crises the relevant historical comparisons.
Discussed by: Chatham House analysts and diplomatic correspondents covering Iran's interim leadership council
The decapitation of Iran's senior leadership creates a power vacuum that new leaders use to pivot toward survival rather than escalation. The interim leadership council—formed March 1 with members of the Guardian Council, judiciary, parliament, and presidency—prioritizes regime continuity over retaliation. The IRGC quietly stops enforcing the Hormuz blockade, perhaps in exchange for a ceasefire. Oil markets calm over weeks as the existential threat recedes. This outcome depends on whether Iran's fractured leadership can assert control over the IRGC, which has historically operated with significant autonomy.
Discussed by: Council on Foreign Relations analysis; Al Jazeera and TIME reporting on Iranian strikes already hitting UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia
The conflict has already spread beyond Iran's borders: Iranian missiles struck targets in at least seven Gulf states on March 1. If sustained attacks damage oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Kuwait—which collectively produce over 13 million barrels per day—the supply shock expands far beyond Iran's own exports. This is the catastrophic tail-risk scenario in which the world's primary oil-producing region becomes an active war zone. Brent could spike well above $120 and global supply chains face disruption on a scale not seen since World War II.
Discussed by: French, British, German, and Italian defense officials coordinating Operation Aspides and Strait protection efforts
France, Britain, Germany, and Italy deploy coordinated escort missions that establish a protected corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial tankers. The multinational presence, combined with U.S. Navy operations, creates sufficient deterrence against further Iranian attacks. Insurance markets adjust downward, major shippers resume limited transits, and oil prices stabilize in the $85-95 range within 2-3 weeks. This outcome depends on Iran choosing not to escalate against a multinational force and the coalition maintaining sustained presence without major casualties.
Discussed by: Iranian military command threatening U.S./Israeli-linked banks; analysts warning of systemic financial risk
Iran follows through on threats to attack banks and financial infrastructure across the Gulf, targeting institutions in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar. Successful strikes on banking centers disrupt regional financial systems, trigger capital flight, and create a secondary economic shock beyond energy markets. Combined with the oil supply disruption, this scenario could accelerate global recession and force emergency central bank interventions. The scenario depends on Iran's capability to execute precision strikes on hardened financial targets and the willingness to accept escalatory consequences.
Discussed by: IEA officials and energy analysts responding to 400M barrel reserve release
The G7/IEA emergency release of 400 million barrels provides sufficient supply cushion to prevent further price escalation. Combined with U.S. Navy escort operations launching within weeks, oil prices stabilize in the $95-105 range as market confidence partially recovers. This outcome depends on the reserve release being perceived as credible and sustained, and the IRGC not escalating attacks in response.
Discussed by: Iranian military commanders and analysts tracking new leadership's strategic direction
The new supreme leader, emboldened by his first public statement and seeking to consolidate power, authorizes intensified attacks on tankers and threatens strikes on Gulf financial infrastructure. Oil prices surge past $120 as markets price in prolonged disruption and the possibility of broader regional conflict. This outcome depends on Khamenei prioritizing retaliation over regime survival and the IRGC maintaining operational capacity despite U.S. strikes.
Discussed by: Bloomberg energy analysts, market commentary on March 23 noting binary outcomes for Brent ($80 vs $150)
If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed beyond the fourth week of disruption, emergency reserve releases (400M barrels = 3 weeks demand, 1.4B barrels total = 10 weeks demand) will be exhausted. Markets are pricing in two distinct scenarios: Strait reopens within a month (Brent $80) or remains closed (Brent $150). The latter would force global recession, accelerate energy diversification away from Middle East dependence, and trigger emergency central bank interventions.
Discussed by: CNN, Iran International, and Axios reporting on IRGC's forced removal of lead negotiator Ghalibaf and the internal Iranian power struggle; Goldman Sachs Global Institute president Jared Cohen
With the IRGC having sidelined Iran's civilian negotiators and ousted its lead peace negotiator, the Revolutionary Guard now effectively controls Iran's diplomatic posture. Hard-liners may prefer continued confrontation to any deal conceding nuclear or ballistic missile limits. Goldman Sachs's Jared Cohen warned the strait may never fully reopen under the current Iranian regime, since Tehran has discovered how much leverage the closure gives it over the global economy. In this scenario, the ceasefire holds in name while talks go nowhere, the dual blockade persists through at least the six-month mine-clearance window, and Brent climbs back toward $120 as strategic reserve releases approach exhaustion.
Discussed by: Goldman Sachs Global Institute (Jared Cohen); Fortune reporting on Goldman's Strait of Hormuz scenarios, April 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs outlined a settlement in which oil tankers resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran retains the unilateral right to close the waterway again at any time and for any reason. Iran would agree not to fire ballistic missiles while keeping 1,000–2,000 of them in reserve. Cohen predicted: 'You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control.' In this scenario, oil prices settle in the $85–100 range as partial flows resume, but insurance markets never fully normalize and shipping insurers build in a permanent Iran-risk premium. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline diversion and UAE's Fujairah bypass capacity provide a partial buffer.
Discussed by: CBS News, NPR, and Fortune reporting on Araghchi's Moscow trip; The National News on Iran-Oman transit fee negotiations
Iran's Foreign Minister traveled to Moscow after the Islamabad framework collapsed, suggesting Tehran is seeking a non-U.S. mediation track. Russia—which maintains ties with Iran and has leverage with Washington—or Oman, which has historically brokered U.S.-Iran back-channel communications, could provide a face-saving framework that sidesteps the IRGC-civilian split. If alternative mediation succeeds, the strait could partially reopen under a monitored transit regime with Iranian toll collection, easing oil prices toward the $85–95 range over several weeks.
Discussed by: CNN intelligence reporting (May 8); US officials cited by The National (May 10); Voice of Emirates analysis of Khamenei's 60-day absence (May 10)
US intelligence says Mojtaba Khamenei has been absent from public view for over 60 days and US officials cannot reliably reach him. Without a supreme leader who can authorize a deal, the IRGC and civilian factions continue operating in parallel with no unified negotiating position. The conflict could extend well beyond the six-month mine-clearance window as neither side has a counterpart capable of making binding commitments. This scenario ends only if Khamenei publicly re-emerges and takes clear control of the negotiating brief, or if Iran's constitution triggers a formal succession process.
Discussed by: Two senior Iranian officials cited by Reuters (October 13-14)
Officials said Iran is moving toward a situation where no vessel violating its restrictions passes, with one saying 'it will be complete closure soon.' Iran already expanded attacks beyond Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and waters off Qatar and the UAE. If the strait genuinely closes, oil would likely spike well above $120 and the shuttle corridor would shut down.
Discussed by: Axios, cited by Iran SitRep (October 13)
Axios reports the US plans to attack Iran before Israel's late-October vote. A strike would likely end the remaining talks and could push oil prices sharply higher entering the US midterms. The risk is heightened by Iran's expanded attacks and its stated move toward complete closure.
Discussed by: Qatari mediators; Trump says the war is 'going to end soon' (CBS News, October 30)
Qatari mediators return to Tehran to close the gap over sequencing. A framework that links a lifted US port blockade to a phased reopening of the strait would ease attacks and pull Brent back below $100. Both sides have so far rejected each other's sequencing.
Discussed by: Traders cited by Gulf News and Reuters; Middle Eastern producers cutting prices to attract buyers
Brent has lost about 20% this month as traders bet on a US-Iran de-escalation and more oil moves through Hormuz. Middle Eastern producers are cutting prices to attract buyers, and LNG traffic through the strait is at its highest level since the war began. If attacks keep easing, Brent could settle in the $80s. A fresh strike on a Saudi pipeline or another tanker attack would reverse the slide.
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
After the United States supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, Arab members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an oil embargo on the U.S. and other nations. Oil prices quadrupled from under $3 per barrel to nearly $12, and Americans faced gas station lines stretching for blocks.
U.S. GDP growth fell from over 5% to negative territory. The Nixon administration imposed fuel rationing and a national 55-mph speed limit.
The crisis created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, accelerated fuel efficiency standards, and demonstrated that Middle East conflicts could deliver severe economic damage to distant economies through the oil market.
The 1973 embargo remains the benchmark for a weaponized oil supply disruption triggered by Middle East conflict. The current Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a similar mechanism—physical denial of oil transit—but at a scale that could affect 20% of global seaborne supply, far exceeding the 1973 embargo's direct impact.
The overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini disrupted Iranian oil production. Although global supply fell by only about 4%, panic buying and speculative hoarding more than doubled crude prices from roughly $15 to $39.50 per barrel over 12 months.
A second wave of fuel shortages hit the U.S. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply, contributing to the early 1980s recession.
The crisis proved that even modest physical supply disruptions can trigger outsized price swings when markets lose confidence in supply stability—a dynamic visible in the current strait shutdown.
The parallel is direct: political upheaval in Iran disrupted oil markets far beyond the actual volume of supply lost. The current conflict combines regime decapitation with a physical chokepoint disruption, creating both the political uncertainty of 1979 and a logistics crisis the earlier episode lacked.
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 removed roughly 4.3 million barrels per day from global markets. Oil prices doubled from $17 to $33 per barrel within weeks. Coalition forces launched Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, liberating Kuwait after a 42-day air campaign and 100-hour ground war.
Oil prices spiked but fell sharply once the coalition demonstrated quick military success, dropping back below $20 by early 1991.
The episode showed that markets can recover rapidly if military action resolves the supply disruption cleanly—but also that the initial shock can trigger recession, as the U.S. experienced in 1990–91.
The key question from the Gulf War analogy: can U.S. military dominance quickly restore oil flows, as it did in 1991? The Strait of Hormuz is a harder problem than liberating Kuwait—it requires sustained naval control of a narrow waterway flanked by Iranian missile batteries, not a decisive land campaign.