Two weeks into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz remains a combat zone with near-zero commercial transits despite a successful US Navy escort of an oil tanker on March 10. The US destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels that day to prevent strait blockages, but Iranian forces struck three more cargo ships in and near the strait, bringing UKMTO-reported incidents to 17 since February 28.
Two weeks into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz remains a combat zone with near-zero commercial transits despite a successful US Navy escort of an oil tanker on March 10. The US destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels that day to prevent strait blockages, but Iranian forces struck three more cargo ships in and near the strait, bringing UKMTO-reported incidents to 17 since February 28.
Over 200 tankers remain trapped inside the Gulf with 20,000 seafarers stranded as insurers withhold coverage; Brent crude spiked above $116 per barrel on March 9 before pulling back to $92 on March 10 amid volatile trading. President Trump has pledged DFC insurance and Navy escorts, but persistent IRGC drone boat and missile attacks have kept the waterway effectively closed to unescorted traffic.
US destroys 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels; three cargo ships struck in Strait of Hormuz
Military
US Central Command struck 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait to prevent blockages; Iranian forces hit three commercial cargo vessels same day. UKMTO reports total 17 incidents since war began.
US Navy successfully escorts oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz
Military
First US Navy-escorted transit completed successfully amid ongoing IRGC threats; no further convoys announced.
Brent crude spikes above $116/bbl before pulling back
Economic
Oil prices hit multi-year highs amid strait closure fears, falling to $92/bbl on March 10 as markets react to US mine strikes.
International Maritime Organisation warns of humanitarian crisis
Humanitarian
The IMO warned that 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise passengers were stranded in the Persian Gulf, with crew members unable to be evacuated from vessels trapped in a war zone.
An explosive-laden drone boat detonated against the port side of the Bahamas-flagged Suezmax tanker Sonangol Namibe while it sat at anchor 30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait. The blast breached the hull and caused oil to leak into the water. It was the largest vessel attacked and the northernmost strike since hostilities began, extending the threat zone deep into the Persian Gulf.
IRGC claims complete control of Strait of Hormuz; only five transits recorded
Escalation
The IRGC announced full control of the strait. Satellite tracking data showed just five vessel crossings for the entire day, down from hundreds under normal conditions.
Trump orders government-backed shipping insurance, offers Navy escorts
Policy
President Trump directed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade in the Gulf. He said the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. No convoy had yet sailed by March 5.
IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed, threatens to attack transiting ships
Escalation
A senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was closed and threatened to "set ablaze" any vessel attempting to pass. Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait. Major shipping lines including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC halted Gulf transits.
Major insurers cancel war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf
Economic
Leading maritime war-risk underwriters withdrew coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf. Premiums that had already risen from 0.125% to 0.4% of insured hull value became unavailable entirely. Without insurance, shipping companies cannot legally operate.
First tanker attacks hit three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz
Attack
The Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was struck 5 nautical miles off Oman, injuring four crew. The crude carrier MKD Vyom took a projectile hit that caused an engine room fire and killed one crew member. A third vessel, the Sea La Donna, also reported an incident.
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
Military
Coordinated airstrikes hit Iranian military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership targets across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other cities. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region
Military
Iran launched Operation True Promise IV, firing missiles and drones at US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as at targets in Israel. The IRGC warned all vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Scenarios
1
US Navy begins convoy escorts; strait partially reopens under military protection
Discussed by: USNI News, Bloomberg, and maritime analysts drawing parallels to Operation Earnest Will (1987). The Trump administration has already announced the legal framework via the DFC insurance order.
The US Navy organizes convoy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, similar to Reagan-era reflagging operations during the 1980s tanker war. With government-backed insurance replacing commercial coverage and warships accompanying tankers, some shipping companies resume transits. Oil prices stabilize but remain elevated due to reduced throughput and the risk of Iranian mines or fast-boat attacks on convoys. This scenario depends on the US Navy having sufficient minesweeping capability to clear the strait and the political willingness to risk a direct naval confrontation with the IRGC.
2
Strait remains closed for weeks; oil prices spike above $100 as strategic reserves deploy
Discussed by: Energy analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, CNBC, and the International Energy Agency. Analysts note that global strategic petroleum reserves, while substantial, cannot replace 20 million barrels per day of Gulf throughput indefinitely.
IRGC mining of the strait and continued drone-boat attacks prevent any reopening despite US military presence. Countries dependent on Gulf oil, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, draw down strategic reserves while scrambling for alternative supply. Brent crude climbs past $100 per barrel. Global recession fears intensify as energy costs cascade through supply chains. This scenario is most likely if Iran successfully deploys sea mines across the shipping lanes, which US minesweeping operations would take weeks to clear.
3
Ceasefire or diplomatic deal halts attacks; shipping resumes within days
Discussed by: European foreign ministers, UN Security Council discussions, and Gulf Cooperation Council mediators. China, as the largest buyer of Gulf oil, has a direct interest in brokering a halt.
International pressure, particularly from oil-importing nations facing economic damage, produces a ceasefire or narrow agreement covering maritime traffic. Iran, having demonstrated its ability to close the strait, extracts concessions in exchange for reopening it. Shipping resumes gradually as insurers reinstate coverage. This scenario becomes more plausible if Iran's conventional military capacity is degraded enough that continued attacks become unsustainable, or if regime survival calculations shift under new leadership following Khamenei's death.
4
Attacks spread to Gulf state ports and energy infrastructure, widening the war
Discussed by: Flashpoint intelligence assessments, CSIS analysis, and Pentagon briefings. The Sonangol Namibe attack deep inside the Gulf already signals geographic expansion.
Iran escalates beyond targeting ships in transit, striking port facilities, oil terminals, and desalination plants in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The conflict widens from a maritime chokepoint dispute into a broader regional infrastructure war. Gulf states, initially bystanders, are drawn into direct confrontation. Energy markets enter crisis as not just transit but production capacity comes under threat. The northward creep of attacks, from the Strait of Hormuz to waters off Kuwait, suggests this escalation pathway is already underway.
Historical Context
Iran-Iraq Tanker War and Operation Earnest Will (1981-1988)
1981-1988
What Happened
During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf to choke off each other's oil exports. Over seven years, 411 ships were attacked, 239 of them oil tankers, killing more than 400 civilian sailors. Iraq used fighter jets armed with Exocet missiles; Iran deployed small boats and naval mines.
Outcome
Short Term
In 1987, the Reagan administration reflagged 11 Kuwaiti tankers as US vessels and deployed over 30 warships to escort convoys under Operation Earnest Will. On the first escort mission, the tanker MV Bridgeton struck an Iranian mine.
Long Term
The operation succeeded in keeping oil flowing despite Iranian attacks, but at the cost of the USS Samuel B. Roberts striking a mine and the US Navy accidentally shooting down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians. The precedent of US Navy convoy escorts is now directly informing the Trump administration's response.
Why It's Relevant Today
Trump's March 3 announcement of Navy escorts and government-backed insurance directly mirrors Reagan's 1987 playbook. The 1980s tanker war also demonstrated that even a major naval presence cannot fully prevent mine attacks and small-boat harassment in the Gulf's confined waters.
Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (2019)
May-June 2019
What Happened
Six commercial vessels were damaged in two separate incidents near the Strait of Hormuz in May and June 2019. The US attributed the attacks to Iran, pointing to video footage appearing to show IRGC personnel removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the Japanese-owned tanker Kokuka Courageous. Iran denied responsibility.
Outcome
Short Term
Oil prices spiked temporarily and war-risk insurance premiums rose, but shipping continued through the strait. The US formed the International Maritime Security Construct, a multinational naval patrol coalition.
Long Term
The attacks demonstrated Iran's ability to threaten Gulf shipping through deniable asymmetric tactics without triggering a major military response. They established a template for exactly the kind of escalation now playing out at a far larger scale.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2019 attacks were probing operations: small-scale, deniable, and designed to demonstrate capability without crossing a threshold for military response. The current wave of attacks has abandoned deniability entirely, with the IRGC openly claiming control of the strait. The shift illustrates how a full-scale military confrontation has removed Iran's incentive for restraint.
Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks (2023-2025)
November 2023 - 2025
What Happened
Yemen's Houthi forces, an Iranian-backed group, launched over 100 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden using missiles, drones, and explosive boats. The attacks forced major shipping lines to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant costs to Asia-Europe trade routes.
Outcome
Short Term
A US-led naval coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, failed to stop the attacks. Container shipping rates between Asia and Europe tripled at their peak. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit climbed to historic levels.
Long Term
The Houthi campaign proved that a militarily modest force could disrupt global shipping lanes for an extended period despite the presence of advanced naval forces. Insurance markets, not military escorts, became the binding constraint on commercial shipping.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Red Sea precedent showed how insurance withdrawal, more than physical danger, can shut down a shipping lane. The same dynamic is now playing out in the Persian Gulf at far greater economic consequence. The Houthi attacks also demonstrated that drone boats and missiles can overwhelm naval defenses when launched from multiple vectors, a lesson the IRGC appears to be applying.
