OPEC+

Global oil shock as Iran war shuts down the Strait of Hormuz

Attempting to offset supply disruption with modest production increases

The US launched a five-hour strike campaign on July 14 targeting coastal defenses, missile sites, and maritime infrastructure across Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Jask, and three other Iranian cities. The IRGC struck back, hitting UAE tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah in the strait and killing one Indian crew member. Iran also struck US bases in Bahrain and Jordan, and Trump's naval blockade on Iranian ports formally resumed at 4 PM ET.

Updated Yesterday

OPEC+ sets oil policy without the UAE for the first time

Built World

Setting output policy with one major member fewer

For decades, every OPEC+ output decision had the United Arab Emirates in the room, usually pushing to pump more. On Sunday, ministers met in Vienna without it for the first time. The UAE's exit took effect May 1 and pulled about 3.5 million barrels a day out of the group's quota math.

Updated Jun 7

UAE exits OPEC after 59 years, removing 13% of cartel capacity

Money Moves

Loses second-largest Gulf producer

The United Arab Emirates joined OPEC in 1967, when crude sold for under $2 a barrel. On May 1, 2026, after fifty-nine years, it walks out—taking roughly 13% of OPEC's production capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.

Updated May 31

Iran conflict shuts down the world's most important oil chokepoint

Force in Play

Approved emergency production increase for April 2026

The Iran-US war reached its 73rd day with talks at a deadlock. Trump called Iran's May 10 response 'garbage' and declared the ceasefire on 'massive life support'.

Updated May 30

US strikes dismantle Iran's surface fleet after Strait of Hormuz blockade attempt

Force in Play

Increasing production to offset Hormuz disruption

The last time the United States sank Iranian warships was April 18, 1988. Thirty-eight years later, American forces destroyed nine Iranian naval vessels in a single day and demolished the country's naval headquarters at Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman.

Updated May 30

Global oil markets enter oversupply era

Money Moves

Holding 3.24 million barrels per day in cuts, delaying planned unwind

Brent crude averaged $80 per barrel in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts it will fall to $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027—a decline of more than one-third in three years. The reason: global oil production is growing faster than demand, and inventories are piling up at a rate not seen since the pandemic.

Updated May 27