OPEC+

Built World

Attempting to offset supply disruption with modest production increases

Entering its third week, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has pushed Brent crude to $104.22 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western shipping. President Trump is preparing to announce an international coalition to escort commercial vessels through the strait, with the White House signaling the announcement could come as soon as this week. However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged on March 15 that the U.S. military is not yet ready to begin escort operations, stating 'It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready.' Japan released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves on March 16, and the IEA projects an 8-million-barrel-per-day production decline for March. U.S. gasoline averages $3.70 per gallon after jumping more than 70 cents since the operation began.

Updated Yesterday

Force in Play

Approved emergency production increase for April 2026

The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective Iranian control as new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows to maintain the blockade as 'leverage' and urges Gulf states to expel U.S. bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues coordinated attacks on commercial shipping, stranding over 1,000 vessels worth $25 billion in the Persian Gulf; Iraq has halted 1.5 million barrels per day of production, QatarEnergy's LNG facilities are offline, and Saudi Aramco cut output by 20% to 8 million barrels per day as storage overflows. A March 14 drone attack caused fire at UAE's Fujairah port, partially suspending operations at this key oil hub outside the strait.

Updated 3 days ago

Force in Play

Increasing production to offset Hormuz disruption

The last time the United States sank Iranian warships was April 18, 1988. Thirty-eight years later, American forces destroyed nine Iranian naval vessels in a single day and demolished the country's naval headquarters at Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman. The strikes came after Iran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows, broadcasting radio warnings that no commercial ship would be allowed to pass.

Updated Mar 1

Money Moves

Holding 3.24 million barrels per day in cuts, delaying planned unwind

Brent crude averaged $80 per barrel in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts it will fall to $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027—a decline of more than one-third in three years. The reason: global oil production is growing faster than demand, and inventories are piling up at a rate not seen since the pandemic.

Updated Feb 11