On December 13, 2025, a Syrian security officer allegedly affiliated with ISIS opened fire on US troops near Palmyra, killing two Iowa National Guard members (Staff Sgts. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar and William Nathaniel Howard) and interpreter Ayad Mansoor Sakat. The US responded six days later with Operation Hawkeye Strike: 100 precision munitions against 70 ISIS targets in central Syria via fighter jets, attack helicopters, and artillery, plus Jordanian F-16s, which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called 'a declaration of vengeance.'
These were the first American combat deaths in Syria since 2019, challenging Trump's policy of withdrawing troops while claiming victory over ISIS. ISIS maintains an estimated 1,500-3,000 fighters across Syria and Iraq, many capable of infiltrating partner forces. Over two months, the campaign has killed or captured over 50 terrorists through strikes like January 27–February 2 operations (50 munitions targeting ISIS communications, logistics, and weapons sites), though the core challenge persists: can airstrikes defeat an insurgency without reliable local partners?
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Key Indicators
70+
ISIS Targets Struck
Initial wave plus subsequent strikes across central Syria in Operation Hawkeye Strike
>150
Precision Munitions Used
Including 50 munitions in Jan 27-Feb 2 strikes on communications, logistics, weapons sites
1,500-3,000
Estimated ISIS Fighters
Current intelligence estimates for Syria and Iraq combined
900
US Troops in Syria
Down from 2,000 as Trump administration consolidates bases
>50
Terrorists Killed or Captured
Cumulative from nearly two months of Operation Hawkeye Strike operations
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19 events
Latest: February 2nd, 2026 · 7 months ago
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February 2026
CENTCOM Conducts Five Strikes on ISIS Targets
LatestMilitary
U.S. forces struck multiple ISIS sites Jan 27-Feb 2 with 50 precision munitions from aircraft, helicopters, and drones, destroying communication site, logistics node, and weapons storage as part of Operation Hawkeye Strike; over 50 terrorists killed/captured in two months.
December 2025
Remains of Fallen Iowa Guardsmen Return Home
Ceremonial
Staff Sgts. Howard and Torres-Tovar arrive at Des Moines International Airport via dignified transfer on Christmas Eve. Iowans line streets to pay respects.
Funeral Arrangements Announced
Ceremonial
Iowa National Guard announces public funeral services: Howard on Dec. 27-28 in Marshalltown High School; Torres-Tovar on Dec. 28-29 in Des Moines.
Fallen Soldiers Posthumously Promoted to Staff Sergeant
Military
Iowa National Guard posthumously promotes Sgts. Torres-Tovar and Howard to Staff Sergeant 'in recognition of their service and sacrifice.'
Campaign Expected to Last Weeks
Statement
US officials indicate Operation Hawkeye Strike will continue for several weeks to a month.
Surveillance drones monitoring Operation Hawkeye Strike impact sites show targeted ISIS cells effectively dismantled, though monitoring continues for regrouping attempts.
Operation Hawkeye Strike Launches
Military
US and Jordan strike 70 ISIS targets with 100 munitions across central Syria using F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, Apaches, and HIMARS. At least 5 ISIS members killed, including drone cell leader.
Hegseth Announces 'Declaration of Vengeance'
Statement
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth frames operation as retaliation, not escalation: "This is not the beginning of a war — it is a declaration of vengeance."
Fallen Soldiers Officially Identified
Statement
US Army names Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, 25, and Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, both Iowa National Guard.
Operations across Syria and Iraq result in 23 terrorists killed or detained following Palmyra attack.
Palmyra Insider Attack Kills Three Americans
Attack
Syrian security officer opens fire on US-Syrian patrol near Palmyra, killing Sgts. Torres-Tovar, Howard, and interpreter Sakat. Three Iowa Guardsmen wounded. Syrian forces kill gunman.
Trump Vows Retaliation
Statement
President Trump blames ISIS and promises "very serious retaliation" for the Palmyra attack.
Ahmed al-Sharaa meets Trump; Syria joins US-led anti-ISIS coalition as 90th member.
December 2024
US Establishes Communication with New Syrian Government
Diplomatic
CENTCOM opens direct channels with Syria's Defense and Interior ministries for counter-ISIS coordination.
Assad Regime Falls in Syria
Political
Bashar al-Assad's government collapses; Ahmed al-Sharaa leads transitional government.
October 2019
ISIS Leader al-Baghdadi Killed
Military
US raid in northern Syria kills Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who detonates suicide vest.
March 2019
ISIS Loses Last Territorial Stronghold
Military
Syrian Democratic Forces capture Baghouz, ending ISIS territorial control after multi-year campaign.
June 2014
ISIS Declares Caliphate
Historical Context
ISIS announces caliphate across Iraq and Syria, controlling territory with 8 million people.
Scenarios
1
ISIS Insurgency Suppressed, Gradual US Withdrawal Resumes
Possible
Discussed by: Defense analysts at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Carnegie Endowment, Breaking Defense
Operation Hawkeye Strike degrades ISIS capabilities enough to reduce attack tempo. Syria's new government proves capable of securing territory with limited US support. Trump gradually draws down troops from 900 to under 500 by mid-2026, maintaining one strategic base for counter-ISIS quick reaction. Syria continues intelligence sharing, preventing major attacks. This requires al-Sharaa's government to professionalize security vetting—no more attackers flagged for extremism three days before they kill Americans. Jordan and other regional partners absorb more of the security burden.
Discussed by: CNN analysis, Modern War Institute scholars citing Afghanistan green-on-blue parallels
More insider attacks follow the Palmyra pattern—Syrian security forces infiltrated by ISIS sleeper cells. Each attack kills the political viability of partnering with Damascus. Trump faces public pressure to either withdraw completely or surge troops for force protection, destroying the "light footprint with local partners" model. Syria's transitional government, already fragile, can't root out ISIS infiltrators fast enough. By late 2026, the US either pulls out entirely (risking ISIS resurgence) or deploys thousands more troops for self-protection, abandoning the partnership approach.
3
Regional Coalition Replaces US as Primary Counter-ISIS Force
Uncertain
Discussed by: Think tank analysts at Washington Institute, Middle East Institute
Jordan's participation in Operation Hawkeye Strike signals growing regional ownership. Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Gulf states—all facing ISIS threats—formalize a counter-terrorism coalition with US air support and intelligence but minimal ground presence. Trump markets this as "America supporting our allies, not fighting their wars." US troop levels drop to 200-300 advisors by 2027. Success depends on whether Syria's government can maintain legitimacy, integrate former rebel groups, and prevent the chaos that let ISIS rise in the first place. Iraq's experience suggests this takes a decade, not years.
4
ISIS Resurgence Forces Prolonged US Presence
Unlikely
Discussed by: US Intelligence Community's March 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, counterterrorism experts at West Point's Combating Terrorism Center
ISIS exploits Syria's messy transition to rebuild. Attack lethality continues increasing—car bombs in Damascus, coordinated assaults on prisons holding 10,000 ISIS detainees, assassination campaigns against Syrian officials. The March 2025 intelligence assessment warned ISIS remains "the world's largest Islamic terrorist organization." A spectacular attack—prison break freeing hundreds of fighters, or a strike killing dozens of Americans—forces Trump to abandon withdrawal plans. By 2026, the US has 1,500+ troops back in Syria, essentially back to square one. The mission creeps from counter-ISIS to propping up Syria's government to prevent collapse.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
August 1998
1998 Embassy Bombings and Operation Infinite Reach
Al-Qaeda bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania simultaneously, killing 224 people including 12 Americans. Two weeks later, President Clinton launched cruise missile strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan—66 missiles at bin Laden's training camps, 13 at a Sudanese pharmaceutical plant. Neither bin Laden nor his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri were hit. The strikes destroyed some infrastructure but did little to degrade al-Qaeda's network.
Then
Retaliation satisfied domestic political pressure but failed to prevent future attacks—three years later came 9/11.
Now
Demonstrated the limits of standoff strikes against decentralized terrorist networks. You can't missile your way to victory against an ideology.
Why this matters now
Operation Hawkeye Strike uses overwhelming firepower against ISIS infrastructure—70 targets, 100 munitions. History suggests this degrades tactical capabilities temporarily but doesn't solve the strategic problem: ISIS is an insurgency embedded in local populations. Without effective local partners who can hold territory and prevent infiltration, the US faces an endless cycle of strike-regroup-strike.
Afghan soldiers and police, some infiltrated by the Taliban, turned their weapons on US and NATO troops they were supposedly partnered with. At least 96 documented attacks killed 152 coalition troops and wounded 200 more. In 2012—the peak year—insider attacks caused 15% of all coalition deaths. The attacks devastated trust, forcing US troops to treat allies as threats. Coalition forces implemented "guardian angel" protocols—armed sentries watching Afghan partners during joint operations.
Then
Massive security protocols slowed training, partner operations became riskier than solo missions, eroding the entire partnership model.
Now
Taliban understood insider attacks achieved strategic effect beyond body count—they made the US-Afghan partnership psychologically unsustainable, accelerating withdrawal.
Why this matters now
The Palmyra attack follows the exact pattern: local security forces vetted and armed by the US, infiltrated by insurgents, turning weapons on American troops. If this becomes a pattern in Syria as it was in Afghanistan, the partnership with al-Sharaa's government becomes untenable regardless of how many airstrikes the US launches.
3 of 3
2019-2025
ISIS Territorial Defeat and Insurgent Resurgence (2019-2025)
In March 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces captured Baghouz, ISIS's last territorial stronghold, formally ending the caliphate. The US declared victory. Intelligence estimated 14,000 ISIS fighters remained, many blending into local populations. By 2024, ISIS had claimed nearly 700 attacks in Syria—triple the 2023 number. Attack lethality increased through 2025 despite reduced frequency. The group went from holding cities to conducting guerrilla warfare, assassinations, and infiltrating security forces.
Then
Defeating ISIS territorially was real but incomplete—the organization adapted to insurgency rather than disappearing.
Now
Six years after "defeating the caliphate," ISIS still maintains 1,500-3,000 fighters and can kill Americans in Syria, proving territorial defeat isn't the same as organizational defeat.
Why this matters now
The December 2025 Palmyra attack and Operation Hawkeye Strike are symptoms of this incomplete victory. The fundamental question remains unanswered: if you couldn't finish ISIS with 2,000 troops and massive air campaigns from 2014-2019, how do you finish it with 900 troops and episodic strikes in 2025? The historical pattern suggests ISIS will outlast American attention spans unless something structurally changes in Syria's governance.
