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Hawkeye strike: a Palmyra ambush drags the U.S. back into big-ticket warfighting in Syria

Hawkeye strike: a Palmyra ambush drags the U.S. back into big-ticket warfighting in Syria

Force in Play

Jordan confirms its air role; early tallies put ISIS losses at five-plus as the insider-threat question widens.

December 20th, 2025: Jordan confirms Royal Jordanian Air Force participation; early reports cite at least five ISIS killed

Overview

Updated May 15

In the first post-strike readout of

Operation Hawkeye Strike

Jordan confirmed its air force flew alongside U.S. forces in the retaliatory package that hit 70+ ISIS targets across central Syria. CENTCOM hasn't released a formal casualty count. But multiple reports citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and AFP put ISIS losses at at least five, including a cell leader tied to drone activity in the east.

The operational message remains

punish fast

avoid war

but the strategic problem has sharpened. The Dec. 13 Palmyra shooter was a recently recruited Syrian internal-security guard under suspicion; the attack also wounded three other U.S. troops. ISIS hasn't claimed the Palmyra assault but has claimed subsequent attacks on Syrian forces; the question is whether the new U.S.–Syria partnership can tighten vetting and force protection fast enough to prevent another attack.

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Key Indicators

70+
ISIS targets struck
CENTCOM says the operation hit more than 70 targets across central Syria.
100+
Precision munitions used
CENTCOM said the strike package employed more than 100 precision munitions.
3
Americans killed in the Palmyra attack
Two U.S. soldiers and a U.S. civilian interpreter were killed on Dec. 13.
3
U.S. troops wounded in the Palmyra attack
Reporting on Dec. 20 described three additional U.S. troops wounded in the Dec. 13 shooting near Palmyra.
5+
ISIS killed (reported, not confirmed by CENTCOM)
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights/AFP reporting put ISIS losses at at least five, including a cell leader; U.S. officials have not confirmed a figure.
10
Follow-on raids after the ambush
CENTCOM says 10 operations in Syria and Iraq killed or detained 23 operatives.
≈1,000
U.S. troops in Syria (commonly cited)
Recent reporting and officials commonly cite about 1,000 U.S. troops remaining in Syria.

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People Involved

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States
Ordered retaliatory strikes; publicly backing Syria’s interim leadership while pledging revenge.
 Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
U.S. Defense Secretary
Public face of the retaliation message; frames strikes as vengeance, not escalation.
 Brad Cooper
Brad Cooper
Commander, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
Operational lead; argues strikes are required to prevent ISIS external plotting.
 Ahmed al-Sharaa
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Interim President of Syria
Cooperating with U.S.-led counter-ISIS efforts while rebuilding a fractured state.
 Ayad Mansoor Sakat
Ayad Mansoor Sakat
U.S. civilian interpreter supporting counter-ISIS operations
Killed in the Dec. 13 Palmyra attack.

Organizations Involved

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
Military Command
Led the strikes and frames them as necessary to prevent ISIS external plotting.

CENTCOM ran Hawkeye Strike and is the scoreboard-keeper for U.S. counter-ISIS operations in theater.
Islamic State (ISIS)
Islamic State (ISIS)
Terrorist Organization
ISIS has not claimed the Palmyra insider shooting, but reporting said it claimed subsequent attacks on Syrian security forces after the U.S. retaliation.

ISIS survives by exploiting governance gaps and proving it can still kill, even after territorial defeat.
Jordanian Armed Forces / Royal Jordanian Air Force
Jordanian Armed Forces / Royal Jordanian Air Force
National military
Jordan publicly confirmed Royal Jordanian Air Force participation in the U.S.-led strike package and framed the mission as preventing extremists from exploiting southern Syria as launch pads.

Jordan’s air support signals regional buy-in and adds political cover for a bigger strike package.
Syrian Interim Government (post-Assad)
Syrian Interim Government (post-Assad)
National government
Cooperating with U.S.-led counter-ISIS actions while rebuilding security institutions.

Damascus is trying to prove it can be a partner against ISIS—while ISIS tries to prove it can penetrate Damascus.
Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Multinational coalition
Political umbrella expanding to include Syria while the military mission stays U.S.-led.

A broad coalition whose credibility depends on members sharing risk when ISIS flares up.

Timeline

December 2024 December 2025

11 events Latest: December 20th, 2025 · 9 months ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Jordan confirms Royal Jordanian Air Force participation; early reports cite at least five ISIS killed

    Latest Coalition Response

    Jordan said its air force joined the U.S.-led strikes; separate reporting citing SOHR/AFP said at least five ISIS members were killed, including a cell leader, though CENTCOM did not publish a casualty figure.

  2. New details emerge on insider attack; ISIS claims follow-on attacks on Syrian forces

    Force Protection

    Reporting described the Palmyra shooter as a recent internal-security recruit who was under suspicion and said three additional U.S. troops were wounded; ISIS still has not claimed Palmyra but has claimed subsequent attacks on Syrian security forces, including one in Idlib province.

  3. CENTCOM launches Operation Hawkeye Strike across central Syria

    Military Operation

    CENTCOM struck more than 70 ISIS targets with over 100 precision munitions; Jordan provided air support.

  4. Congress permanently repeals sweeping Assad-era sanctions; Damascus celebrates

    Policy

    Syria welcomed permanent repeal of major sanctions as tied to reconstruction and counterterrorism benchmarks.

  5. Dover dignified transfer underscores the political cost of a “small” Syria mission

    Domestic Politics

    Trump and Hegseth attended the return of the three Americans killed in Syria, with retaliation promised publicly.

  6. Palmyra ambush kills two U.S. soldiers and a U.S. interpreter

    Attack

    U.S. officials said a lone ISIS-linked attacker struck U.S. and Syrian personnel near Palmyra; the attacker was killed.

  7. Trump hosts Syria’s al-Sharaa at the White House; Syria joins the anti-ISIS coalition politically

    Diplomacy

    The meeting accelerated U.S.–Syria coordination against ISIS while Damascus pushed for permanent sanctions repeal.

  8. Trump signs executive order terminating the Syria sanctions program

    Policy

    The White House framed sanctions removal as support for stability while keeping terrorism-linked designations in place.

  9. Treasury issues General License 25 as Washington begins unwinding Syria sanctions

    Policy

    OFAC authorized broad transactions with Syria as part of a sanctions-relief package tied to the post-Assad transition.

  10. Pentagon plans to shrink Syria footprint below 1,000 troops

    Force Posture

    Officials said forces would consolidate to fewer locations as the counter-ISIS mission continued.

  11. Pentagon admits Syria troop presence is far higher than previously briefed

    Disclosure

    The Defense Department said about 2,000 U.S. troops were in Syria, versus the repeatedly cited 900 core figure.

Scenarios

1

ISIS Absorbs the Blows, Then Tries Another ‘Cheap’ Attack on U.S. Personnel

Likely

Discussed by: Reuters reporting on the ambush and follow-on strikes; analysts tracking ISIS insurgent tactics in Syria’s Badia.

If ISIS retains sleeper capability and freedom of movement in central Syria, it will look for another low-cost spectacle: a lone-gunman attack, a roadside bomb, or an insider-style incident during a meeting. The trigger is simple: ISIS believes U.S.–Syrian coordination is politically fragile and wants to rupture it. The U.S. response would likely be more raids and strikes—effective tactically, but proof the mission remains dangerous and ongoing.

2

Washington Quietly Expands the Mission: More Raids, More Enablers, More Targets

Possible

Discussed by: CENTCOM operational tempo statements; defense press coverage of troop posture and consolidation plans.

If post-strike assessments show ISIS infrastructure survived—or if attacks continue—CENTCOM will argue for a sustained surge in tempo: expanded partner raids, broader target sets, and more ISR/aviation coverage. The key trigger is another U.S. casualty event or credible intel about external plotting. This path doesn’t require a formal “escalation announcement”; it happens by accumulating sorties, deployments, and authorities until the mission is effectively bigger than advertised.

3

Damascus Fails the Vetting Test, and the U.S. Pulls Back from Joint Engagements

Possible

Discussed by: AP and Reuters reporting on claims the attacker had ties to Syrian security forces; policy watchers focused on state-capacity risks.

If investigations show serious insider penetration—missed warnings, compromised units, or repeat infiltration—the U.S. may downgrade joint meetings and patrol-style engagements that create soft targets. The trigger is less about ISIS and more about trust: Washington decides Syrian security services can’t yet protect U.S. personnel during face-to-face coordination. The result would be colder operational cooperation, more standoff strikes, and a slower political “normalization” track.

4

Big Strike, Limited Follow-Through: The Story Fades Until the Next Attack

Uncertain

Discussed by: White House messaging emphasizing retaliation rather than war; historical pattern of periodic counter-ISIS strike spikes.

If Hawkeye Strike produces visible battlefield effects and ISIS activity dips, the administration may treat the operation as a closed chapter—retaliation delivered, deterrence restored. The trigger is a quiet few weeks: no new U.S. casualties, no dramatic ISIS claims, and steady partner raids. This is the politically easiest outcome, but it’s also brittle: ISIS is patient, and the next successful attack would reset the cycle instantly.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2014–2019

Operation Inherent Resolve (ISIS territorial defeat era)

After ISIS seized territory across Syria and Iraq, the U.S. led a long coalition air-and-ground campaign with local partners. The “caliphate” lost its major cities and collapsed territorially, but ISIS cells persisted and adapted.

Then

ISIS lost control of territory; coalition operations became more targeted and advisory.

Now

ISIS survived as an insurgency, periodically spiking attacks when governance weakens.

Why this matters now

Hawkeye Strike is the modern sequel: standoff firepower against an insurgency that never fully died.

August 2021

Kabul Airport bombing and U.S. retaliation against ISIS-K

A mass-casualty ISIS-K attack hit the U.S. during a high-stakes transition, forcing rapid retaliation decisions under political pressure. The U.S. struck back quickly, but faced enduring questions about intelligence, partners, and exposure.

Then

U.S. conducted retaliatory action and tightened force-protection posture.

Now

ISIS-K remained active, showing punishment doesn’t automatically end the threat.

Why this matters now

It’s a reminder that revenge strikes satisfy urgency, but don’t end insurgent capacity by themselves.

2023–2024

U.S. retaliation cycle after attacks on U.S. forces in the region

Repeated attacks on U.S. personnel in the Middle East produced a pattern: casualties, vows of response, then calibrated strikes meant to deter without widening war. Adversaries often tested the boundaries again.

Then

Deterrence sometimes held briefly, sometimes failed quickly.

Now

The core dilemma persisted: force protection versus escalation risk.

Why this matters now

Hawkeye Strike fits this playbook—and inherits its weaknesses if ISIS can hit again.

Sources

(21)
+15
U.S. Central Command Reuters Associated Press The Guardian Al-Monitor The Washington Post The White House U.S. Department of the Treasury Military Times U.S. Department of Defense ABC News (AP) Al Jazeera Military.com (AP pickup) Reuters Associated Press Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury The Washington Post (AP) Associated Press Al-Monitor The Washington Post