ISIS strikes back after Assad's fall

Overview

A lone ISIS gunman killed two Iowa National Guardsmen and a civilian interpreter in Palmyra, Syria, on December 13, 2025—the first American combat deaths since Bashar al-Assad fled the country a year earlier. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded with Operation Hawkeye Strike.

On December 19, F-15s, A-10s, Apache helicopters, and HIMARS artillery struck 70 ISIS targets across central Syria with over 100 precision munitions. Jordan sent fighter jets, and Trump called it vengeance. U.S. forces conducted 11 additional raids between December 20 and 29, killing or capturing 25 ISIS operatives and destroying four weapons caches.

Assad's collapse created the power vacuum ISIS exploited, staging 660 attacks during 2024. By December, after early-2025 quiet, ISIS escalated dramatically—ambushing American forces, bombing mosques to stoke sectarian rage, and killing eight in a December 26 Homs mosque attack, claimed by a new Sunni extremist group. With 9,000 ISIS fighters in Kurdish prisons and 40,000 relatives in desert camps, 900 U.S. troops are all that stands between order and chaos.

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Key Indicators

ISIS targets struck

Largest U.S. retaliation since ISIS territorial defeat in 2019

Americans killed

First U.S. combat deaths in Syria since Assad's fall

ISIS operatives killed/captured

Result of 11 U.S.-led missions December 20-29, following Operation Hawkeye Strike

9,000

ISIS detainees

Held in SDF prisons across northeast Syria, vulnerable to prison breaks

900

U.S. troops in Syria

Down from 2,000, supporting Kurdish forces against ISIS resurgence

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People Involved

Pete Hegseth

Ordered Operation Hawkeye Strike in retaliation for Palmyra attack

Staff Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar

Killed in action, December 13, 2025

Staff Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard

Killed in action, December 13, 2025

Ayad Mansoor Sakat

Killed in action, December 13, 2025

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Leading Syria's transitional government after toppling Assad

Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla

Oversaw counter-ISIS operations until August 2025

Brad Cooper

Leading counter-ISIS operations in Syria and Iraq

Organizations Involved

Islamic State (ISIS)

Terrorist Organization

Regrouping in Syria's desert badlands after losing territorial control in 2019

The jihadist group that once ruled territory the size of Britain, now reduced to guerrilla warfare.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

Multi-ethnic militia coalition

U.S. partner force controlling northeast Syria, guarding ISIS prisons

America's proxy army in Syria, holding the line against ISIS with 900 U.S. troops at their back.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

Military Command

Conducting sustained counter-ISIS operations across Iraq and Syria under Gen. Brad Cooper

The Pentagon command responsible for the Middle East, running America's forever war against ISIS.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

Armed Political Organization / Former Rebel Group

Controls Damascus, leading Syria's transitional government

Former al-Qaeda affiliate now running Syria, rebranding from jihadists to counterterrorism partners.

Saraya Ansar al-Sunna

Sunni Extremist Group

Active in Syria, conducting sectarian attacks

A new Sunni extremist group exploiting post-Assad sectarian tensions through attacks on religious minorities.

Timeline

CENTCOM Announces 25 ISIS Operatives Killed or Captured
Military

11 U.S.-led missions December 20-29 killed at least 7 ISIS members, captured others, destroyed 4 weapons caches.
December 30th, 2025
Staff Sgt. Edgar Torres-Tovar Laid to Rest
Ceremony

Funeral mass at Our Lady of the Americas in Des Moines, burial with military honors at Iowa Veterans Cemetery.
December 29th, 2025
Staff Sgt. William Howard Laid to Rest
Ceremony

Funeral service at Marshalltown High School Roundhouse, public visitation and honors.
December 27th, 2025
Mosque Bombing in Homs Kills Eight
Attack

Explosion at Alawite mosque during Friday prayers kills 8, wounds 18. Saraya Ansar al-Sunna claims responsibility, escalating sectarian tensions.
December 26th, 2025
Fallen Iowa Guardsmen Return Home
Ceremony

Remains of Torres-Tovar and Howard arrive in Iowa with military honors, posthumously promoted.
December 24th, 2025
Operation Hawkeye Strike Hits 70 ISIS Targets
Military

U.S. and Jordan unleash F-15s, A-10s, Apaches, artillery—100+ munitions across central Syria.
December 19th, 2025
ISIS Gunman Kills Three Americans in Palmyra
Attack

Lone attacker—Syrian security guard with ISIS ties—ambushes U.S. patrol, killing two soldiers, one interpreter.
December 13th, 2025
U.S. Removes HTS Terrorist Designation
Diplomatic

Washington formally delists Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, betting on al-Sharaa's pivot from jihadism.
July 7th, 2025
ISIS Suicide Bomber Hits Damascus Church
Attack

Attack on Greek Orthodox church kills 25, wounds 63 in sectarian provocation.
2025-06-XX
CENTCOM Warns ISIS Could Regenerate in Two Years
Assessment

Gen. Kurilla testifies post-Assad chaos enables ISIS to rebuild fighting force, seize territory.
June 10th, 2025
SDF Agrees to Merge Into Syrian State
Political

Kurdish forces agree to integrate, but implementation stalls over details and Turkish opposition.
March 10th, 2025
Al-Sharaa Formally Becomes President
Political

Syrian Revolution Victory Conference appoints al-Sharaa as president of transitional government.
January 29th, 2025
CENTCOM Chief Visits Syria, Tours ISIS Prisons
Military

Gen. Kurilla meets SDF commanders, inspects al-Hol camp holding 40,000 ISIS-affiliated detainees.
January 16th, 2025
Syria Thwarts ISIS Church Bombing Plot
Security

New government stops ISIS attack on Damascus Shi'a shrine, demonstrating counterterrorism capability.
January 11th, 2025
U.S. Lifts Bounty on Al-Sharaa
Diplomatic

Washington removes $10M reward, signaling acceptance of HTS as Syria's de facto government.
December 20th, 2024
Assad Regime Falls, Damascus Liberated
Political

Rebels take Damascus with scant resistance. Assad flees to Russia, ending 53 years of family rule.
December 8th, 2024
HTS Launches Offensive Against Assad
Military

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham rebels surge from Idlib, beginning blitz that will topple the regime.
November 27th, 2024

Scenarios

Predict which scenario wins. Contrarian picks score more — points lock in when the scenario resolves.

Predictions leaderboard

ISIS Prison Breaks Trigger Regional Crisis

Turkish pressure forces SDF to divert guards from detention sites. ISIS attempts coordinated breakouts from multiple facilities—they've already tried twice since Assad fell. Thousands of fighters escape into Syria's desert badlands, overwhelming al-Sharaa's green government. The 40,000 family members in al-Hol and Roj camps riot. U.S. rushes reinforcements, but hundreds of foreign fighters scatter to Europe, North Africa, and Central Asia. The scenario CENTCOM warned about materializes: ISIS regenerates, seizing territory within months instead of years.

Discussed by: Washington Institute, International Crisis Group, Human Rights Watch reporting on SDF facility vulnerabilities

Consensus —

Al-Sharaa Consolidates Power, ISIS Containment Holds

Syria's transitional government proves more effective than Assad at suppressing ISIS. Al-Sharaa integrates SDF into national forces, secures prison facilities, and leverages Western intelligence partnerships to dismantle cells before they strike. The U.S. maintains 900 troops as advisors but gradually shifts burden to Syrian forces. ISIS reverts to low-level insurgency—deadly but contained. The March 2025 SDF integration finally gets implemented, giving Kurds autonomy while addressing Turkish concerns. Jordan, Syria, and the U.S. establish permanent counter-ISIS coordination.

Discussed by: Foreign Affairs, Combating Terrorism Center analysis of HTS counterterrorism record

Consensus —

Trump Withdraws, ISIS Resurges as U.S. Exits

Trump orders full withdrawal of the 900 U.S. troops—he tried in 2018, nearly succeeded in 2019, and now he's back. SDF loses funding and air support. Turkey attacks Kurdish positions. Prison security collapses. ISIS, which was conducting 60 attacks monthly in 2024, roars back to life. Al-Sharaa's forces can't fill the vacuum. The scenario mirrors Iraq 2011: premature withdrawal births ISIS 2.0. European allies scramble to evacuate their nationals from detention camps. Syria becomes a terrorist safe haven again, exactly what al-Sharaa promised to prevent.

Discussed by: Stars and Stripes, NBC News analysis of Trump's Syria withdrawal history and current posture

Consensus —

Sectarian War Reignites, ISIS Exploits Chaos

Al-Sharaa's Sunni government clashes with Shi'a communities, Alawites, and Kurds. The June church bombing was just the beginning—ISIS stages more sectarian attacks designed to ignite civil conflict. Turkey invades Kurdish areas, forcing SDF to abandon ISIS prisons and fight for survival. Iran backs Shi'a militias. Israel strikes Hezbollah remnants. Syria fragments into warring zones. ISIS thrives in the chaos, recruiting from displaced populations and looting weapons depots. The U.S. faces an impossible choice: escalate or watch Syria's disintegration spawn the next caliphate.

Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Lowy Institute analysis of Syrian sectarian tensions

Consensus —

Historical Context

January 2019 Manbij Bombing

January 16, 2019

What Happened

An ISIS suicide bomber killed four Americans—two soldiers, a Defense Department civilian, and a contractor—plus 15 others in Manbij, Syria. The attack came weeks after Trump announced withdrawal of all U.S. forces, demonstrating ISIS's enduring capability despite losing most territorial control. It was the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in Syria since operations began.

Outcome

Short Term

Trump delayed but didn't cancel the withdrawal; forces drew down from 2,500 to 900.

Long Term

ISIS lost its final territory two months later but proved it could strike even in defeat.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Palmyra attack mirrors Manbij's timing—Americans killed during political transition—and validates fears that reduced presence invites ISIS resurgence.

Iraq 2011 U.S. Withdrawal and ISIS Rise

December 2011 - June 2014

What Happened

Obama withdrew all U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011, declaring the mission accomplished. Iraqi security forces, without American support, crumbled under sectarian pressure. Al-Qaeda in Iraq—barely alive in 2011—rebranded as ISIS, exploited Syria's civil war, then stormed back into Iraq. By June 2014, ISIS controlled Mosul and declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria.

Outcome

Short Term

ISIS seized territory the size of Britain, holding it until 2017-2019.

Long Term

The U.S. returned in 2014 with Operation Inherent Resolve, a mission still running 11 years later.

Why It's Relevant Today

The withdrawal-resurgence pattern haunts Syria policy: pull out too soon and ISIS returns stronger, as CENTCOM's two-year regeneration warning suggests.

Operation Inherent Resolve (2014-Present)

September 2014 - Ongoing

What Happened

After ISIS seized vast territory in Iraq and Syria, Obama launched a coalition campaign in September 2014. Using airstrikes, special forces, and local partners like the SDF, the U.S. slowly squeezed ISIS's caliphate. By March 2019, ISIS lost its final stronghold at Baghuz. But the mission never ended—900 troops remain in Syria conducting counter-ISIS operations, exactly what they were doing when the Palmyra attack hit.

Outcome

Short Term

Coalition liberated 100% of ISIS's territorial caliphate between 2014-2019.

Long Term

ISIS reverted to insurgency, attacking 660 times in Syria during 2024 alone.

Why It's Relevant Today

Operation Hawkeye Strike is the latest chapter in an 11-year war that was supposed to end in 2019, proving ISIS containment requires permanent pressure.