President Donald Trump said on Nov. 10 there was a 'good chance' of a deal with Iran and that the US would not launch a new offensive for now. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said sanctions were working so well that major combat operations were unnecessary, though he warned Iran against crossing 'red lines.'
Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington ends its naval blockade, lifts oil sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified, damaging an Aramco tower in Riyadh and targeting the capital's airport, while Gulf states approved a new military command headquarters in Kuwait.
Why it matters
A deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices; failure could bring back strikes and deeper Houthi attacks on Saudi oil.
Questions about this story
Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.
No questions yet — be the first to ask.
Key Indicators
31
LNG tankers through Hormuz in October
The highest monthly level since the conflict disrupted shipping, vessel-tracking data showed.
2
Days Iran says it needs to reopen Hormuz
If Washington ends the naval blockade, lifts oil sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets.
6
Houthi operations claimed on Nov. 7
Against Saudi energy infrastructure, Riyadh airport and military positions; an Aramco tower was damaged Nov. 8.
Voices
Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.
Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.
46 events
Latest: Yesterday
Showing 8 of 46
JK to step
Tap a bar to jump to that date
Jump to
November 2026
Rubio says no need for major combat operations
LatestPolicy
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said economic sanctions were so devastating that there was no need for major combat operations against Iran. He warned that the US military stood ready if Iran crossed 'red lines.'
Houthis claim attacks on Riyadh airport and financial hub
Escalation
The Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh's airport and financial hub. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile and a cruise missile fired at Riyadh, and schools in the capital moved online.
GCC approves military command HQ in Kuwait
Policy
Gulf Cooperation Council member states approved a military command headquarters in Kuwait, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Al Budaiwi said. The bloc already has a Unified Military Command in Riyadh.
Iran urges US to meet Hormuz demands
Diplomacy
Iran urged Washington to meet its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including ending the war on all fronts, unfreezing assets, lifting oil sanctions and ending the US counter-blockade. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the only solution was diplomacy and respect.
Trump sees 'good chance' of a deal
Diplomacy
Trump said there was a 'good chance' of a deal with Iran and that the US would not launch a new offensive for now. He spoke of 'positive momentum' toward ending the eight-month war.
Trump says war is 'militarily effectively over'
Policy
After talks with Qatar's prime minister, Trump declared the war militarily 'effectively over' and cited 'positive momentum' toward ending it. He said new strikes were 'quite unlikely' but kept the naval blockade and said the US was 'locked and loaded.'
East-West Pipeline attacked in Medina region
Attack
The East-West Pipeline was attacked in the Medina region, causing a limited fire. Pipeline operations were unaffected and the Energy Ministry did not attribute the attack.
US moves aircraft from RAF Mildenhall
Warning
The US reportedly relocated military aircraft from RAF Mildenhall in the UK amid intelligence warnings of a potential Iranian-linked attack. Security was heightened at RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath.
Houthis damage Aramco tower in Riyadh
Escalation
An Aramco office tower in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District was damaged during a Houthi attack. The Saudi Energy Ministry attributed the damage to debris from an attempted attack.
US missions warn of Houthi and Iran-linked threats
Warning
US diplomatic missions across the region issued coordinated security alerts warning of increased Houthi attacks and Iranian efforts to target US government officials.
CENTCOM sets up Task Force Iron Gate
Policy
US Central Command established Task Force Iron Gate to disrupt Iranian overland weapons transfers and sanctions evasion. Washington asked Iraq to close all but two border crossings with Iran.
US strikes Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island
Escalation
Trump confirmed a limited US strike on Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island. Iranian state media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Jask, Sirik and on Qeshm.
October 2026
US and Israel ready post-midterm strike plans
Policy
Two Israeli sources told ABC News the two militaries had drawn up plans to renew joint strikes after the Nov. 3 elections, targeting Iran's petrochemical industry and possibly the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site. The Hill reported US Central Command had follow-up options ready pending White House authorization.
Houthis hit Saudi airports and oil infrastructure
Escalation
The group said it fired missiles at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport in two phases and struck Dammam and Najran airports, the Khamis Mushait air base and east-west oil pipelines. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh.
Trump says a strike or a deal is possible
Policy
Trump told reporters the US could strike Iran 'tomorrow' or reach a 'nice, big, beautiful agreement,' and said he wanted a permanent solution to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
US pulls diplomats and families from four countries
Warning
The State Department ordered further staff reductions in Lebanon, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan after intelligence warned that Iranian preparations to attack Americans in the region had reached advanced stages. Warships in the USS George Washington strike group loaded munitions and readied aircraft, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Iran offers to reopen Hormuz for an end to the blockade
Diplomacy
Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, said Tehran had conveyed the offer through Pakistan's army chief. A source quoted by Revolutionary Guard-affiliated media rejected the exchange.
White House rules out pre-midterm strike on Iran
Policy
After reports that US and Israeli planners had readied new strikes, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the United States 'will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.'
Trump rules out pre-midterm Iran strikes
Policy
Trump ruled out renewed strikes on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Oil futures fell as supply fears eased, triggering a price pullback.
US military draws up post-election strike options
Policy
The US military is drawing up options for renewed large-scale strikes against Iran, including an intensive three-day campaign targeting missile and drone facilities, despite Trump's pre-election pledge to avoid conflict.
US embassy in Jordan warns of Iran-linked attacks
Warning
The US embassy in Jordan warned of potential Iran-linked attacks on American interests. Reuters reported vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months.
Houthis strike Riyadh airport, killing three
Escalation
Yemen's Houthis targeted Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport three times, killing three and damaging the runway. The attack breached Saudi air defenses and marked an escalation into the Saudi capital.
US and Iran exchange messages through mediators
Diplomacy
Communication channels between the US and Iran remain open, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as key intermediaries. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran is still reviewing Washington's response to a proposal.
September 2026
US destroys five Iranian oil tankers
Attack
CENTCOM said it sank the tankers M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, plus M/T Derya near Kharg island. The strike came after the IRGC warned of attacks on tankers near Bahrain and Kuwait.
Iran attacks 10 ships and fires missiles at US base in Jordan
Escalation
The IRGC said it hit 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including two US vessels, and fired about 20 missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. Jordan intercepted 18. One A-10 lost a wing and roughly eight F-15s suffered light damage; a seafarer was killed off Dubai.
Iran suspends commitments under interim peace deal
Diplomacy
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran had suspended all commitments under the interim peace memorandum with the US, which Trump had declared over on July 8, calling the US tanker strikes a breach of the accord.
Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait and the UAE again
Escalation
Iranian forces attacked US targets in Kuwait and the UAE for a second time this week, vowing to avenge the civilian deaths from US strikes.
Israel warns sanctions could push Iran to 'desperate steps'
Policy
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the new US sanctions appear to be working but the increased pressure could drive Tehran to extreme measures.
Iranian health ministry: US strikes killed 18
Casualty
Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi said US attacks across several provinces overnight killed 18 people and wounded 108, including civilians at a wedding in Sirik county.
Two tankers explode after hitting mines in Strait of Hormuz
Attack
Two oil tankers struck mines in the waterway and exploded. The IRGC said the vessels were US-controlled and tried to cross via an 'illegal route.'
Trump vows to hit Iran 'hard' after Jordan attack
Policy
President Trump pledges a military response to Iran's strikes on US personnel in Jordan, saying 'we're going to hit them hard.'
Trump reportedly weighing strike on Kharg Island
Policy
Reports said Trump was considering a 'limited' strike package that could target Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, in response to the Jordan attack.
US military carries out new strikes on Iranian targets
Escalation
CENTCOM said US forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran in response to attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American troops in the region. Trump called the action 'very justified' and warned Iran of more severe strikes if it retaliated.
Treasury says it will widen Iran sanctions weekly
Policy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would expand sanctions on a weekly basis, with a new bank sanction expected this week and possible actions against airline leasing companies and entities doing business with the IRGC.
Iran tells UN Larak strike violated sovereignty, defends Jordan attack
Diplomacy
In a letter to the United Nations, Iran said the US strike on Larak Island violated its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and defended its attacks on US bases in Jordan as acts of self-defense.
August 2026
Pezeshkian calls for dialogue at Kyrgyzstan summit
Diplomacy
At a summit in Kyrgyzstan, Pezeshkian says Iran is not looking for war and calls for dialogue. He says Iran will 'immediately' reciprocate if the US fulfills the June interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker hit by three projectiles off Oman
Attack
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reports a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was struck by three 'unknown projectiles' off the northeastern edge of Oman. No casualties or environmental damage were reported.
Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude struck off Oman
Attack
The Saudi-flagged VLCC Sidr and Liberian-flagged VLCC Senegal Prosperity were hit by projectiles within minutes of each other while leaving the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping intelligence firms Marisks and Kpler. All crew were reported safe.
Iran sends drones toward Al Minhad Air Base in UAE
Attack
Iran's army said it used attack drones to target areas where US personnel and helicopters were stationed at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE. The Emirati air force said it intercepted a drone approaching from Iran and denied the base was hit.
Senior Iranian source calls exchanges 'limited and contained'
Diplomacy
A senior Iranian source told Reuters the overnight exchanges were a 'limited and contained confrontation' but said Tehran would deliver a harsh response if attacked again.
US hits IRGC minelayers at Larak Island
Escalation
US Central Command struck Revolutionary Guard minelaying forces at Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, calling them an imminent threat to shipping. Iran responded the next day with missiles at US bases in Jordan.
White House says no ongoing negotiations with Iran
Diplomacy
The White House said there were no ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran over the war, which started Feb. 28.
July 2026
Trump orders halt to US strikes after Gulf talks
Policy
Last US strike on Iran before Trump pauses direct attacks following discussions with Gulf leaders.
Third US soldier dies from attack injuries
Casualty
1st Lt. Tyler Feehan dies from injuries sustained in the July 17 missile strike.
Iranian missiles strike US base in Jordan, killing two soldiers
Attack
Ballistic missiles hit Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, killing Pvt. Isabella Gonzales and Sgt. Angel Rampersad.
February 2026
US-Israeli coalition opens war on Iran
Conflict
The war began in late February 2026. Gulf states hosting American personnel became recurring targets in the ensuing campaign.
Scenarios
1
US-Iran direct military exchanges resume and escalate
Possible
Resolves by Dec 1, 2026
Discussed by: Al Jazeera reporting; Harlan Ullman analysis
The Larak Island strike and the Jordan retaliation could mark the start of a new round of tit-for-tat attacks. Iran has targeted US bases in Jordan and the UAE repeatedly; the US says it acts only against immediate threats to shipping. Another US strike on Iranian territory, or another Iranian missile barrage on US forces, would confirm escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint.
2
Sanctions become the primary lever as direct strikes taper off
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: US Treasury officials; Al Jazeera's Manuel Rapalo
The Trump administration has signaled a shift from kinetic action to economic pressure. Treasury said it would announce more sanctions within days under 'Operation Economic Outcast.' If direct exchanges stay contained to occasional defensive strikes, sanctions become the dominant tool — and Iran's response would come through economic or proxy channels rather than missiles at US bases.
3
Jordan restricts US base operations after repeated attacks
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Harlan Ullman's warning to Jordan
Iran's strikes are a political signal to Amman that hosting US forces makes it a target. Each attack raises the domestic and security cost for Jordan's government. If strikes become more frequent or cause civilian casualties, Amman could condition or restrict US use of its bases — a shift with real weight, given the bases' role in US air operations and air-defense missions.
4
Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz become a new front line
Deadline passed (Oct 1, 2026)
Discussed by: UK Maritime Trade Operations reports; Al-Monitor and Stars and Stripes coverage
Two tankers were hit by projectiles near the strait within three days, reviving the 1980s Tanker War pattern. With US forces claiming mine-clearance complete and Iran's minelayers under fire, both sides could shift to striking or defending commercial shipping. Each incident risks pulling Washington and Tehran into another round of direct attacks.
5
US strikes Kharg Island, targeting Iran's oil exports
Deadline passed (Sep 15, 2026)
Discussed by: Gulf Insider, Fox News reports
Trump is reportedly considering a 'limited' strike package that could target Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. Such a strike would hit Iran's economy directly and could provoke a sharp Iranian response, including further attacks on shipping or US bases. The White House has said it wants to avoid full-scale war, but a Kharg Island strike would be a significant escalation.
6
Sanctions Push Tehran Toward 'Desperate Steps'
Deadline passed (Q3 2026)
Discussed by: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, Guardian reporting
Katz said the sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast look effective. If Treasury keeps widening them weekly and Iran's economy strains, Tehran could escalate attacks on shipping or US forces rather than absorb the squeeze.
7
Hormuz Tanker Attacks Turn Deadly
Deadline passed (Q3 2026)
Discussed by: Saudi shipper Bahri, Al-Monitor reporting
Two Filipino crew died when the Saudi VLCC SIDR was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. With mines and projectiles now killing mariners, insurers may raise war-risk premiums and carriers could avoid the waterway, deepening the energy price shock.
8
Iran retaliates for the Sept. 30 strikes that killed civilians on Qeshm
Deadline passed (Oct 15, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters and Iranian state media reporting
The Sept. 30 US strikes killed three people on Qeshm island, including a two-year-old child, Iran's state media reported. Iran has answered every round of US strikes this month with missile or drone fire at US assets, so a retaliatory exchange in the first half of October is the likely default unless a new diplomatic track opens.
9
Post-Midterm US Strike Campaign
Possible
Resolves by Nov 15, 2026
Discussed by: Gulf News reporting
Trump said on Nov. 9 that new strikes were 'quite unlikely' and declared the war militarily 'effectively over,' but US Central Command has strike options ready and the naval blockade remains.
10
Houthi Attacks Draw Saudi Arabia Into the War
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: Iran SITREP, Gulf News
Houthis damaged an Aramco tower in Riyadh on Nov. 8 and claimed attacks on the capital's airport and financial hub on Nov. 10. The strikes are pulling Saudi Arabia deeper into the war and testing its air defenses.
11
Diplomatic Breakthrough Through Qatar and Pakistan
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: The National
Communication channels between the US and Iran remain open, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as key intermediaries. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran is still reviewing Washington's response. A new agreement could emerge if both sides find common ground.
12
US Draws Down Its Gulf Footprint
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: CNN, Axios, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal
US intelligence says Iranian preparations to attack Americans across the Middle East reached advanced stages, and Washington has moved diplomats and families out of Lebanon, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. If the drawdown continues, bases that support US air operations and air defense in the Gulf would run with fewer people and less political cover from their hosts.
13
US and Iran reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Trump, Rubio and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
Trump says there is a 'good chance' of a deal, and Iran says it could reopen Hormuz within two days if Washington ends the blockade, lifts oil sanctions and unfreezes assets. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
January 2020
Al Asad Airbase attack (January 2020)
Days after a US drone strike killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad, Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at al-Asad airbase in Iraq, which hosted about 1,500 US troops. No service members died, but dozens later received diagnoses of traumatic brain injury.
Then
The US did not retaliate militarily; both sides stepped back from the brink of a wider war.
Now
It established that Iran can strike US bases directly with missiles while keeping escalation contained, and that Washington would absorb the hit rather than respond.
Why this matters now
Like the Aug. 31 attack on Jordan, it was direct Iranian missile fire at US forces hosted by a partner country — Tehran striking American bases without crossing the threshold into all-out war.
2 of 3
April 1988
Operation Praying Mantis (April 1988)
After the guided-missile frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts hit an Iranian mine in the Persian Gulf, US forces struck two Iranian oil platforms and sank or damaged six Iranian vessels in a single day. One US helicopter crew died.
Then
Iran's navy took heavy losses; the exchange helped push Tehran toward accepting a ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq War later that year.
Now
It set the precedent that the US would retaliate directly against Iranian forces that threaten Gulf shipping — a doctrine still in force.
Why this matters now
The 1988 conflict was triggered by Iranian minelaying in a choke point; the Aug. 31 US strike hit IRGC minelayers in the Strait of Hormuz for the same reason. The mechanism has barely changed in four decades.
3 of 3
1987-1988
Tanker War / Operation Earnest Will (1987-1988)
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran attacked neutral shipping in the Persian Gulf with mines and patrol boats. The US Navy escorted reflagged Kuwaiti tankers through the Gulf, a campaign that gradually drew American and Iranian forces into direct clashes.
Then
US-Iran naval clashes escalated through 1987-88, culminating in Operation Praying Mantis.
Now
It established escorting and mine-clearing as US missions in the Gulf — missions the US is repeating in the Strait of Hormuz today.
Why this matters now
The current crisis replays the 1980s pattern: Iranian mining threats, US convoy protection and mine clearance, and direct naval exchanges over a critical shipping lane.
