Houthis seize strategic island at Red Sea shipping chokepoint

Overview

Updated 13 hours ago

Ship crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to 15 on Friday, half the previous day's total. Houthi rebels seized Perim Island that day, completing their takeover of the strait that carries 10 to 12 percent of global trade.

Brent crude closed the week at $104.60 a barrel after touching nearly $110. The Strait of Hormuz is also nearly shut, with traffic down to about 10 million barrels a day from over 20 million before the U.S.-Iran war. Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline after an attack; the White House offered intelligence support but declined direct strikes.

Why it matters

The Houthis control the strait that carries 10-12 percent of global trade, Saudi Arabia's backup pipeline is shut, and oil is above $100.

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Key Indicators

60%

Decline in shipping through Bab al-Mandeb since late 2023

Traffic through the strait fell sharply after the Houthis began attacking vessels.

$104.60

Brent close, Sept. 11

Brent closed the week at $104.60 a barrel after touching nearly $110 earlier in the week as the Houthis advanced along Yemen's Red Sea coast.

10-12%

Share of global trade through Bab al-Mandeb

The strait carries roughly one-tenth of global trade toward the Suez Canal.

6M bpd

Saudi crude supply, August

Saudi crude supply fell 2.3 million barrels per day in August to 6 million bpd, the lowest in more than three decades.

Ship crossings through Bab al-Mandeb, Sept. 11

Crossings fell to 15 on Friday from 30 the day before, according to Kpler. Six vessels exited the Red Sea and nine entered.

10M bpd

Estimated Strait of Hormuz oil flow

The strait carried more than 20 million barrels of oil a day before the U.S.-Iran war; estimates now put the flow at about 10 million.

46,000

People displaced in the past week

The U.N. migration agency said fighting along Yemen's western coast sent more than 46,000 people fleeing.

150,000

Deaths in Yemen's civil war

The decade-long conflict has killed an estimated 150,000 people and pushed millions to the brink of famine.

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People Involved

Abbas Araghchi

Iran's foreign minister

Pushing for Saudi-Houthi talks; Iran confirms Oman meeting on Hormuz shipping

Abdel-Malik al-Houthi

Leader of the Houthi movement

Leads Ansar Allah from Yemen

Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud

Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia

Requested U.S. military help against the Houthis; Washington declined direct strikes

Ali al-Zaidi

Prime Minister of Iraq

Dismissed Maysan province commander after attacks on Saudi Arabia traced to the governorate

Organizations Involved

Houthis (Ansar Allah)

Iran-backed rebel movement

Controls Yemen's entire western coast and Bab al-Mandeb islands

Iran-backed armed group that seized Yemen's capital in 2014 and now controls most of the country's Red Sea coast.

Saudi Arabia

Government

World's largest oil exporter; led coalition against Houthis since 2015

Backs Yemen's internationally recognized government and has led a military coalition against the Houthis since 2015.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Paramilitary force

Directing Houthi operations per Yemeni, Iranian, and regional sources

Iran's elite military force that has armed, trained, and guided the Houthis for years.

Yemen's internationally recognized government

Government

Saudi-backed administration displaced from Sanaa

Saudi-backed government that lost control of the capital in 2014 and now condemns the Houthi advance.

Timeline

November 2023 September 2026

14 events Latest: Yesterday Showing 8 of 14

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September 2026
Houthis seize Perim Island and Yemen's western coast
Latest Military Advance

Houthis capture Perim Island, Dhubab town, and Zuqar Island — taking the entire western coast and control of Bab al-Mandeb.
Yesterday
Saudi Arabia shuts East-West oil pipeline after attack
Conflict

Saudi Arabia said Friday it had shut the East-West pipeline after an attack the previous day. The Energy Ministry called the closure a precautionary measure.
Yesterday
U.S. declines Saudi request for direct strikes on Houthis
Diplomacy

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump twice to request U.S. military help. Washington offered intelligence sharing and targeting support but said it would not take direct military action for now.
Yesterday
Houthis seize Greater and Lesser Hanish islands
Military Advance

A Yemeni government official said the Houthis captured the last two islands in the strait not under their control, completing their takeover of the waterway.
Yesterday
UN reports 46,000 displaced by coastal fighting
Humanitarian

The U.N. migration agency said the past week's fighting along Yemen's western coast had sent more than 46,000 people fleeing.
Yesterday
Iran confirms Oman talks on Hormuz shipping lanes
Diplomacy

Iran said its representatives and those of Iraq and Gulf Arab states will meet Monday in Oman to discuss safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Yesterday
Bab al-Mandeb ship traffic halves to 15 crossings
Shipping

Kpler data showed 15 ship crossings through the strait on Friday, down from 30 the day before. Six vessels exited the Red Sea and nine entered, carrying crude, grains and steel.
Yesterday
Brent closes week above $104 after nearing $110
Market Impact

Brent crude closed the week at $104.60 a barrel after reaching nearly $110 earlier in the week. West Texas Intermediate traded near $100.
Yesterday
Iraq dismisses Maysan commander over Saudi pipeline attacks
Diplomacy

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the commander of southern Maysan province after confirming attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline originated from within the governorate.
Yesterday
Strait of Hormuz traffic near half pre-war levels
Market Impact

Kpler counted 14 transits of the strait on Friday, up from seven on Thursday. Hormuz carried more than 20 million barrels of oil a day before the war; estimates now put the flow at about 10 million.
Yesterday
Houthis capture port city of Mokha
Military Advance

Rebels seize the Red Sea port city within 50 miles of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
2 days ago
August 2026
Houthis strike Saudi vessel in northern Red Sea
Conflict

Attack on a Saudi ship near the Suez Canal entry point extends the blockade northward.
August 25th, 2026
July 2026
Houthis declare blockade on Saudi shipping
Conflict

In July 2026, rebels announce a blockade of Saudi vessels in the Red Sea and attack Saudi oil infrastructure.
July 1st, 2026
November 2023
Houthis begin Red Sea shipping attacks
Conflict

Houthis attack vessels in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza; shipping through Bab al-Mandeb falls ~60%.
November 1st, 2023

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Scenarios

Houthis hold Bab al-Mandeb through 2027

Likely Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Politico, PBS News, Al-Monitor, Lloyd's List Intelligence

The Houthis consolidate control over Perim, Zuqar, and the western coast. Container lines and oil tankers keep rerouting around Africa. Saudi Arabia seeks alternate export routes through Egypt's pipeline and Suez Canal but pays higher costs. Crude stays above $100 a barrel, giving Iran leverage in any negotiations.

Saudi-led counteroffensive retakes the strait

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Yemeni military officials quoted by AP

Saudi air strikes and a ground push backed by Yemeni government forces retake Mokha and Perim. The trigger would be U.S. approval for a larger Saudi campaign, which Yemeni officials say has been absent so far. Success would restore the status quo but risk reigniting Yemen's full civil war.

Negotiated ceasefire freezes the front lines

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Iran's foreign ministry, Abbas Araghchi

Iran pushes for a return to Saudi-Houthi talks. A diplomatic effort, possibly via the UN, freezes territorial gains and resumes negotiations. The fragile truce that had limited Yemen's civil war since 2022 would be restored, but the Houthis would keep their new coastal territory at the bargaining table.

U.S. naval forces clash with Houthis in the Red Sea

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Reuters, AP

The U.S. declined Saudi requests for direct strikes but offered intelligence and targeting support. The Houthis now hold the islands overlooking the strait and have threatened Saudi shipping. U.S. warships in the Red Sea could be drawn into a firefight if the Houthis act on that threat.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

June 1967 - June 1975

Suez Canal closure (1967-1975)

After Egypt's defeat in the Six-Day War, the Suez Canal was closed with mines and sunken ships blocking its length. Vessels between Asia and Europe were forced to sail around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Then

Voyages between Asia and Europe stretched by thousands of miles and weeks of sailing time.

Now

The eight-year closure helped drive the development of larger container ships built for the longer route.

Why this matters now

Demonstrates the enormous economic cost when a maritime chokepoint closes — a preview of what sustained disruption at Bab al-Mandeb could mean.

March 1984 - August 1988

Tanker War (1984-1988)

During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The United States reflagged Kuwaiti tankers under the American flag and escorted them with warships, drawing U.S. naval forces into direct combat with Iran.

Then

Gulf shipping became heavily militarized, with foreign navies escorting tankers through the war zone.

Now

Established the precedent of outside powers protecting critical oil shipping lanes during regional conflicts.

Why this matters now

Shows how a regional war can turn oil shipping routes into military targets — and how foreign navies get pulled in to protect them.

November 2023 - ongoing

Houthi Red Sea attacks (2023-2024)

Beginning in late 2023, the Houthis launched missiles and drones at commercial ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Major shipping lines including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd rerouted vessels around Africa, cutting Bab al-Mandeb traffic by roughly 60 percent.

Then

Shipping re-routed around Africa; the U.S. and U.K. struck Houthi targets in Yemen.

Now

The attacks established the Houthis as a credible maritime threat and triggered a sustained foreign military response.

Why this matters now

This is the direct precursor — the same group, the same strait, now with territorial control rather than just missiles.