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Houthis strike Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, reopening a front held quiet since 2022

Houthis strike Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, reopening a front held quiet since 2022

Force in Play

Five weeks after a drone hit Jazan, Iraq-linked drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, Houthis seized a Red Sea island, and Brent topped $100. Baghdad is investigating and has set a Sept 30 militia disarmament deadline.

Today: Iraq confirms drones came from its territory, sets disarmament deadline

Overview

Updated 4 hours ago

What began as a single drone strike on August 9 has grown into the most serious Saudi-Houthi fighting since the 2022 truce. On September 8, Houthi missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities, wounded 73 people, and set fires at oil sites. The 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery has not fully operated since late July.

On September 10, drones launched from Iraq hit pump stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had been moving 4 to 5 million barrels a day. Riyadh shut the line the next day, and Brent crude traded near $105 a barrel. The Houthis also reached Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's southern gateway. Iraq confirmed the drones came from its territory, dismissed two senior officials, and set a September 30 deadline for armed groups to disarm.

Why it matters

Every drone that hits Saudi oil infrastructure makes Gulf supply riskier and raises prices at the pump worldwide.

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Key Indicators

400,000 bpd
Jazan refinery capacity
The Red Sea complex can process 400,000 barrels of crude per day.
73
People wounded on Sept 8
Houthi missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities, wounding 73, including women and children.
$105/barrel
Brent crude, Sept 11
Brent futures traded near $105 a barrel after the pipeline attack, ending the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May.
4-5 million bpd
East-West pipeline throughput
The line had been moving 4 million to 5 million barrels a day, about 4% to 5% of global supply, before the Sept 10 strike shut it down.
Since late July
Jazan refinery below full capacity
Repeated Houthi strikes have kept the plant from running at full capacity.
Sept 11
Perim island reached by Houthis
Houthi forces reached the strategic island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Transit through the strait has fallen about 60% since late 2023.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

April 2022 September 2026

11 events Latest: Today Showing 8 of 11
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  1. Iraq confirms drones came from its territory, sets disarmament deadline

    Today Diplomacy

    Iraq's government confirmed the Sept 10 pipeline attack originated from its territory, dismissed two senior officials, and pledged an investigation. It set a Sept 30 deadline for nonstate armed groups to disarm; several powerful Iran-backed militias said they will not comply.

  2. Houthis reach Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait

    Military

    Houthi forces reached the strategic island of Perim (Mayun) in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and seized the Red Sea port of Mokha.

  3. IEA reports Saudi crude supply at lowest in more than three decades

    Market

    The International Energy Agency said Saudi crude supply fell to the lowest levels in more than three decades. Brent futures traded near $105 a barrel, ending the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May.

  4. Drones from Iraq hit East-West pipeline pump stations

    Military

    Drones from Iraq, according to both Baghdad and Riyadh, struck pump stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and started fires. Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline the next day.

  5. Houthis strike Jazan refinery again; complex still offline

    Military

    Aramco's Jazan refinery took another Houthi strike on September 6 and remained offline the next day. The plant has not fully operated since late July.

  6. Drone strikes Aramco's Jazan refinery

    Military

    A Houthi drone sets fire to the Jazan refinery. Aramco crews put it out with no injuries. It is the first Houthi hit on Saudi energy in four years.

  7. Houthis claim strikes on Jizan and Yanbu

    Military

    The group says it fired missiles and drones at Aramco-linked sites in Jizan and Yanbu. A fire is reported at the Jazan refinery.

  8. Saudi forces strike Houthi-held Hodeidah

    Military

    Saudi Arabia hits Houthi positions in the port city of Hodeidah, raising the risk that Yemen slides back into open war.

  9. Iran hits Saudi targets, oil prices jump

    Military

    Retaliatory strikes reach Saudi Arabia, including oil facilities. Brent crude climbs above $80 a barrel before easing back over the following months.

  10. US and Israel strike Iran, war begins

    Military

    Joint US-Israeli strikes hit Iran's nuclear and military sites. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region and moves to close the Strait of Hormuz.

  11. UN-brokered truce calms the Yemen border

    Diplomacy

    A two-month truce between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition takes hold. It is extended and largely holds for four years, even as formal terms lapse.

Scenarios

1

Houthis keep hitting Saudi oil, refinery strikes become routine

Possible Resolves by Nov 9, 2026

Discussed by: Al Jazeera and Washington Post coverage of the widening Red Sea front

The Jazan strike is the start of a sustained campaign rather than a one-off. Tit-for-tat Saudi airstrikes in Yemen keep drawing Houthi drones and missiles toward Aramco facilities. Each side answers the last blow, and Saudi energy sites stay under regular threat.

2

Back-channel talks restore the lull, strikes stop

Possible Resolves by Nov 9, 2026

Discussed by: Arab Center Washington DC analysis of Saudi-Houthi de-escalation

Riyadh has spent years trying to exit Yemen and protect its economy. Both sides step back through Omani or other mediation, halting cross-border strikes. Saudi oil facilities go untouched again as the informal truce is patched back together.

3

Saudi Arabia launches a major offensive inside Yemen

Unlikely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: ABC News reporting on Saudi-Houthi airstrike exchanges

Repeated hits on Aramco push Riyadh to abandon restraint. Saudi forces mount a sustained air campaign or ground push against Houthi strongholds, beyond the limited strikes on Hodeidah and Saada. Yemen tips back toward full-scale war.

4

Gulf strikes drive Brent crude back above $85

Uncertain Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Euronews and market analysts tracking the 2026 oil shock

Escalating attacks on Gulf energy sites and shipping spook oil traders. Damage or fear of damage to Saudi output pushes Brent crude, near $70 in July, back above $85 a barrel. Consumers feel it at the pump worldwide.

5

East-West pipeline stays shut, pushing more crude through the Strait of Hormuz

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Reuters and Al-Monitor coverage of the pipeline shutdown

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after projectiles hit pump stations on September 10. The line is the kingdom's main export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged shutdown pushes more Saudi crude through the strait, where shipping is already under threat in the 2026 Iran war.

6

Brent crude tops $100 as Gulf supply fears build

Possible Resolves by Oct 31, 2026

Discussed by: NBC News and market analysts tracking the 2026 oil shock

Brent reached $98 after the September 8 attacks on Saudi energy sites. Another strike, or a prolonged pipeline outage, could push it past $100, the level reached at the war's peak. Higher crude prices show up at the pump worldwide.

7

Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi shipping

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Reuters and Al-Monitor reporting on Houthi gains at Perim island and Mokha

With Perim island and the port of Mokha in their hands, the Houthis can threaten the 28-kilometre-wide Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's southern gateway. Transit through the strait has already fallen about 60% since the Houthis began attacking vessels in late 2023. A full closure would force tankers to sail around Africa and push oil prices higher.

8

Iraqi militias launch fresh drone attacks on Saudi oil sites

Possible Resolves by Oct 31, 2026

Discussed by: CNN, Al-Monitor and Seattle Times reporting that Baghdad and Riyadh traced the pipeline attack to Iraq

Iraq dismissed a military commander and opened an investigation after the September 10 pipeline attack. If Iran-backed Iraqi militias strike Saudi oil targets again, Riyadh may face pressure to respond inside Iraq. That would open a new front in the 2026 Iran war.

9

Iraqi militias ignore the Sept 30 disarmament deadline and strike Saudi oil again

Possible Resolves by Oct 15, 2026

Discussed by: Associated Press reporting via The Seattle Times on Iraqi militia fallout

Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for nonstate groups to disarm after the pipeline attack. Several powerful Iran-backed militias have already refused. If they hit Saudi territory again, Riyadh faces pressure to respond inside Iraq, opening a new front in the 2026 Iran war.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1984–1988

Tanker War (1984–1988)

During the Iran-Iraq war, both sides attacked oil tankers and terminals in the Persian Gulf. Hundreds of vessels were hit, and the US Navy began escorting reflagged Kuwaiti tankers.

Then

Shipping insurance costs soared and traffic through the Gulf grew dangerous.

Now

It set a pattern of energy infrastructure and shipping being used as leverage in Gulf conflicts.

Why this matters now

It shows how Gulf oil supply becomes a weapon when regional wars widen, the same dynamic now pulling Saudi refineries in.

September 2019

Abqaiq–Khurais attack (2019)

Drones and missiles struck Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing plant and Khurais oil field. The strikes briefly knocked out about 5.7 million barrels per day, roughly half the kingdom's output. The Houthis claimed the attack; the US and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran.

Then

Oil prices spiked by the largest single-day jump in decades before Aramco restored output within weeks.

Now

The strike exposed how vulnerable Saudi oil hubs are to drones and shaped fears about Gulf supply security.

Why this matters now

It is the benchmark for what a serious hit on Aramco can do. The Jazan fire was minor by comparison, but it revives the same fear.

March 2022

Houthi strikes on Aramco depots (2022)

Houthis hit an Aramco fuel depot in Jeddah, sending smoke over a Formula 1 race weekend, and struck other Saudi sites. The attacks came during the war before the UN truce took hold weeks later.

Then

Saudi Arabia warned it would not bear responsibility for oil supply shortfalls caused by the strikes.

Now

The pressure fed into the April 2022 truce that quieted the border for four years.

Why this matters now

This is the last time Houthis openly targeted Saudi oil before now. The August 9 strike ends the calm that followed.

Sources

(21)