Yemen's Saudi-backed government launches offensive to retake Houthi-held territory
Force in Play
Saudi airstrikes near Sanaa kill at least 27. Houthis press toward Aden after airport missile attacks; the Shabwa camp toll is 73 and both sides blame each other for a Taiz market strike.
Yemen's Saudi-backed government began its 'Dawn of Yemen' offensive on October 4 and initially claimed ground near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Taiz. The Houthis have since fired ballistic missiles at airports in Aden and Mukalla and advanced to within 80 kilometers of Aden, Shafaq News reported.
Saudi airstrikes hit homes near Sanaa on November 7, killing at least 27 people and wounding 36, the Associated Press reported. On November 6, a strike on al-Hadara market in Taiz killed at least 30 people, the Houthis said; both sides blamed each other. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi missile and drone on November 1.
Why it matters
Control of the Bab el-Mandeb coast decides who can threaten Red Sea shipping, the route for much of the world's oil and container trade.
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Key Indicators
27
Killed in Saudi strike near Sanaa
Saudi airstrikes hit homes near Sanaa on November 7, killing at least 27 people and wounding 36, the Associated Press reported.
2,309
Targeting operations reported
Yemeni armed forces spokesman Majeed al-Nuzaili said the campaign had carried out 2,309 operations as of October 14, using aircraft, drones, artillery and rocket launchers.
460
Houthi military vehicles destroyed
Figure given by the armed forces spokesman on October 14 for the campaign to date.
73
Soldiers killed at Shabwa camp
Shabwa's provincial authorities said on October 20 that 73 security recruits were killed and more than 200 wounded in the October 19 missile attack; an earlier count was 53.
13
Killed at Riyadh airport
A missile hit King Khalid International Airport on October 10. The BBC reported at least 13 dead, the deadliest attack inside the kingdom in more than a decade; Al Jazeera reported 14 dead and more than 300 wounded.
100
Coalition fighter jets in support
Saudi-led coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki said 100 jets were supporting Yemeni forces on October 5.
80
Houthis' distance from Aden
Shafaq News reported on November 2 that Houthi forces had advanced to within 80 kilometers of Aden, the seat of Yemen's internationally recognized government.
30
Killed in Taiz market strike
Houthi-run authorities said a strike on al-Hadara market in Taiz on November 6 killed at least 30 people; both sides blamed each other.
21 events
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November 2026
Saudi airstrikes hit homes near Sanaa, killing at least 27
LatestEscalation
Saudi airstrikes hit homes near Sanaa, killing at least 27 people and wounding 36, the Associated Press reported.
Strike on Taiz market kills at least 30, sides trade blame
Escalation
A strike on al-Hadara market in Taiz governorate's al-Waziiya district killed at least 30 people, the Houthis said. Yemen's government and the Houthis blamed each other for the attack.
Houthis advance within 80 km of Aden
Escalation
Houthi forces advanced to within 80 kilometers of Aden, the base of Yemen's internationally recognized government, Shafaq News reported.
Saudi air defenses intercept Houthi missile and drone
Military Operation
Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi missile and drone, Shafaq News reported.
Saudi-led coalition strikes Houthi assets in Yemen
Military Operation
The Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi assets in Yemen, according to Shafaq News.
October 2026
Six killed as Saudi-Houthi fighting escalates
Escalation
Shafaq News reported six people killed in Yemen as fighting between Saudi-backed forces and the Houthis escalated.
Houthis launch new ballistic missile strikes on Aden
Escalation
Shafaq News reported new Houthi ballistic missile strikes on Aden, the seat of Yemen's internationally recognized government.
Houthi missiles hit Aden and Mukalla airports
Escalation
Yemen's military said Houthi ballistic missiles struck airports in Aden and Mukalla. The government accused the Houthis of targeting civilian aviation.
Houthi missiles kill dozens of recruits at Shabwa military camp
Escalation
Ballistic missiles hit the al-Alam camp in Shabwa province as recruits lined up for training with internal security forces. The provincial government said at least 53 soldiers were killed and 200 wounded; Reuters, citing government and medical sources, put the toll at 18.
Airstrike on Saada kills at least nine, including five children
Escalation
An airstrike blamed on Saudi-led forces hit Houthi-held Saada province, killing five children and two women among at least nine dead, according to the Houthi-run health ministry. Saudi Arabia did not comment.
Clashes intensify as Houthis keep pressure on Taiz
Escalation
The New York Times reported new clashes as Houthi forces stepped up pressure on Taiz, the city linking government-held southern Yemen to the Red Sea coast.
Government reports 2,309 operations, repels Houthi attack west of Taiz
Military Operation
Yemeni forces said they had carried out 2,309 targeting operations and destroyed 460 Houthi vehicles since the campaign began, and retook areas in Sabr al-Mawadim and al-Sarari in Taiz. They also said they intercepted a drone bound for Medina and a missile aimed at Riyadh.
Coalition strikes Yemen oil sites; missiles intercepted over Riyadh
Escalation
The Saudi-led coalition said it hit oil facilities in Sanaa, Dhamar and Saada used to supply the Houthi war effort. It said it intercepted two Houthi ballistic missiles; debris falling on Riyadh injured four people and damaged 15 homes.
Houthi missile hits Riyadh's main airport
Escalation
A missile struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The BBC reported at least 13 people killed, the deadliest attack inside the kingdom in more than a decade; Al Jazeera reported 14 dead and more than 300 wounded.
Houthis claim missile strikes on Saudi border bases
Escalation
The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles at Saudi forces in Jizan province and at Abha International Airport, extending their attacks beyond Yemen's borders.
Government forces retake Mocha, claim control of Bab el-Mandeb area
Military Operation
Pro-government forces seized the port city of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani said the military secured effective control of the strait area, though fighting continued.
Houthis press advance around Taiz
Escalation
Houthi fighters advanced on sections of the mountain road around Taiz and pushed into the town of al-Turbah, leaving government forces in the city besieged, government military sources said.
Houthis cut Taiz-Aden road, encircling Taiz
Escalation
Houthi fighters severed the vital supply route linking Taiz with Aden, effectively encircling Yemen's third-largest city, home to hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Al-Alimi announces military offensive against Houthis
Military Operation
President Rashad al-Alimi declared the start of operations to retake remaining Houthi-held territory. Saudi air power backed tens of thousands of ground troops; Yemeni forces reported 257 first-day strikes.
September 2026
Houthis seize Red Sea coast near Bab al-Mandab
Escalation
Houthi forces took roughly 130 kilometers of Yemen's southwestern Red Sea coast in a rapid September advance, including the port city of Mokha and Perim island, giving them control of the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
April 2022
UN-brokered truce takes effect
Ceasefire
A UN-brokered truce between Yemen's warring parties largely held for years, freezing frontlines. The informal Saudi-Houthi ceasefire began to unravel in July 2026 and collapsed as fighting resumed that autumn.
Scenarios
1
Yemeni forces break Taiz siege and retake Bab al-Mandeb coast
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: Reuters and Axios regional reporting on the operation's objectives
Government forces with Saudi air cover push the Houthis out of the rugged mountains overlooking the Bab al-Mandab area and reopen the Taiz-Aden road. This would restore government control over the strait's land approaches and relieve a besieged city of hundreds of thousands, shifting the conflict's trajectory for the first time since the 2022 truce.
2
Offensive stalls; Houthis hold gains and Taiz stays besieged
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: Regional officials cited by Axios; the pattern of past Saudi-led campaigns in Yemen
The offensive makes initial advances but hits entrenched Houthi defenses in mountainous terrain. Saudi airstrikes cannot dislodge fighters dug into the highlands, and the front returns to a grinding stalemate similar to previous years, with the strait remaining under Houthi influence.
3
United States enters direct combat against the Houthis
Unlikely
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: Axios, citing two US officials
If the operation faces serious setbacks, the United States shifts from intelligence and targeting support to direct airstrikes. Axios reported the United States is "not going to take kinetic action for now," but officials said that could change if the operation runs into problems. US Central Command has reservations about launching strikes, seeing it as a distraction from its focus on Iran.
4
Offensive pushes toward Sanaa
Unlikely
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Al-Alimi's stated goal; Al Jazeera analysis
Al-Alimi said the campaign, dubbed 'Yemen Dawn,' aims to liberate Sanaa and end what he called the Houthi coup. Retaking the Red Sea coast is the first phase; pushing into the northern highlands where the Houthis are entrenched would be harder. Al Jazeera's reporting carries the headline that Houthi defeat will be a challenge.
5
Houthi strikes force Riyadh to scale back its investment conference
Possible
Resolves by Nov 15, 2026
Discussed by: Al Jazeera reporting from Doha and Sanaa on the economic fallout of the missile campaign
Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport, Aramco sites and other infrastructure lead Saudi Arabia to postpone or downsize the investment conference it planned for later in October. Organizers have already pushed the Six Kings Slam tennis tournament to December, and Al Jazeera reported it was unclear whether the conference would go ahead.
6
Houthis reach Aden's outskirts and threaten the government's seat
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Shafaq News reporting on the Houthi advance
Houthi forces advanced to within 80 kilometers of Aden in early November, according to Shafaq News. A continued push would put the government's temporary capital under direct threat and could force it to relocate or seek emergency foreign military support.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
September 2014
Houthi takeover of Sanaa (September 2014)
Houthi fighters swept into Yemen's capital Sanaa, forcing the internationally recognized government to flee and triggering the current civil war. The group's rapid seizure of the capital demonstrated how quickly it could overturn the existing order when it moved.
Then
The government fled to Aden, and the country split between Houthi-controlled north and government-held south.
Now
Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015, and the conflict settled into a grinding, years-long stalemate with no military resolution.
Why this matters now
The September 2026 seizure of the Red Sea coast follows the same pattern of swift Houthi territorial gains, which is what prompted this new government counteroffensive.
2 of 3
March 2015
Operation Decisive Storm (March 2015)
A Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes against Houthi positions to restore Yemen's internationally recognized government after the rebels advanced on Aden. The operation marked the start of direct Saudi military involvement in the civil war.
Then
The coalition halted the Houthi advance on Aden and pushed them back from southern Yemen over subsequent months.
Now
Despite years of air campaigns, the Houthis retained control of Sanaa and northern Yemen, and the war settled into a prolonged stalemate.
Why this matters now
The current offensive mirrors the 2015 playbook—Saudi air power backing Yemeni government ground forces—but faces the question of whether air strikes alone can dislodge entrenched Houthi fighters.
3 of 3
November 2023 – 2024
Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks (2023-2024)
The Houthis attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, disrupting one of the world's busiest shipping lanes for over a year. Major carriers rerouted around Africa, adding weeks to voyages and billions in costs.
Then
The United States and United Kingdom conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets; attacks eventually tapered off but shipping continued to face elevated risk.
Now
The episode showed how a non-state group controlling Yemen's coastline could impose global economic costs through the Bab al-Mandeb choke point.
Why this matters now
The Houthis' September 2026 seizure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait gives them the same leverage over global shipping, now backed by direct control of the coastline itself.
