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Lebanon's gamble: disarming Hezbollah after decades of failure

Lebanon's gamble: disarming Hezbollah after decades of failure

Force in Play

Army announces first phase complete, but Israel occupies strategic hilltops and Hezbollah resists full disarmament

January 9th, 2026: Israel Strikes Hezbollah Targets Day After Disarmament Announcement

Overview

Lebanon's army says it now controls the south—except for five hilltops Israel refuses to give up. On January 8, 2026, the military announced it had completed phase one of disarming Hezbollah and other militias south of the Litani River, bringing weapons under state control for the first time in 40 years. Over 9,000 soldiers swept the war-battered region, clearing unexploded ordnance and tunnels left from the devastating 2024 war that killed 4,000 people and displaced 1.3 million. Hours later, Iran's foreign minister arrived in Beirut for tense talks, and the next day Israel resumed strikes across southern Lebanon—business as usual despite the milestone announcement.

The disarmament announcement hasn't changed the fundamental dynamics. Israel calls the progress "encouraging but far from sufficient," claiming Hezbollah is already rebuilding, and continues daily airstrikes. Hezbollah says it won't disarm north of the Litani until Israel withdraws completely. Lebanon's foreign minister confronted Iran's visiting diplomat to find a "new approach" on Hezbollah's weapons—a remarkable public rebuke. And the entire effort hinges on a fragile Washington-brokered ceasefire that UNIFIL says Israel has violated 10,000 times since November. Lebanon is trying to do what the UN failed to accomplish in 18 years: actually enforce Resolution 1701. Two days after the victory lap, it looks just as impossible.

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Key Indicators

9,000+
Lebanese troops deployed south
First time in 40 years Lebanon's army controls territory south of Litani River
5
Strategic hilltops Israel still occupies
Only areas south of Litani where Lebanese military lacks control
10,000+
Israeli ceasefire violations documented by UNIFIL
7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations since November 2024 ceasefire
4,047
Killed in 2024 war
Including 5,000 Hezbollah fighters and 72 Israelis; 16,638 wounded
1.3M
People displaced by 2024 conflict
Largest displacement crisis in Lebanon's recent history

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People Involved

Joseph Aoun
Joseph Aoun
Leading state disarmament effort since January 2025
 Nawaf Salam
Nawaf Salam
Leading government since February 2025
 Naim Qassem
Naim Qassem
Leading Hezbollah since October 2024 after Nasrallah's assassination
 Hassan Nasrallah
Hassan Nasrallah
Killed in Israeli airstrike September 27, 2024
 Abbas Araghchi
Abbas Araghchi
Visited Lebanon January 8, 2026 to discuss Hezbollah and bilateral relations
 Youssef Raggi
Youssef Raggi
Serving in Salam government since February 2025

Organizations Involved

Hezbollah
Hezbollah
Political party and armed militia
Weakened but resisting disarmament

Iran-backed militia more powerful than Lebanon's official army until Israel decimated its leadership in 2024.
Lebanese Armed Forces
Lebanese Armed Forces
Military
Leading disarmament operations with US and French support

Lebanon's long-sidelined military is finally getting its chance to control the south—if it can stay stronger than Hezbollah.
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
UN Peacekeeping Mission
Monitoring ceasefire alongside US-led mechanism

UN peacekeepers who spent 18 years watching Hezbollah arm itself instead of disarming it.
Government of Iran
Government of Iran
National government
Hezbollah's primary state sponsor, resisting Lebanese disarmament push

Iran created, funded, and armed Hezbollah for four decades—and isn't ready to let Lebanon dismantle its most powerful regional proxy.

Timeline

  1. Israel Strikes Hezbollah Targets Day After Disarmament Announcement

    Military Operation

    IDF strikes multiple Hezbollah sites across southern Lebanon and Bekaa Valley, citing violations of ceasefire terms and Hezbollah rearmament efforts.

  2. Lebanon Announces Phase One Disarmament Complete

    Disarmament

    Army says it controls south of Litani except five Israeli-occupied hilltops. Israel calls progress insufficient.

  3. Iranian Foreign Minister Visits Beirut Amid Disarmament Push

    Diplomatic

    Abbas Araghchi meets Lebanese leaders and Hezbollah's Qassem same day phase one announced. Lebanese FM Raggi confronts Iran to find "new approach" on Hezbollah weapons; Araghchi says Iran supports Hezbollah as resistance but doesn't interfere in its affairs.

  4. Salam Forms New Government

    Political

    New cabinet sworn in, focused on reconstruction and implementing ceasefire terms.

  5. Nawaf Salam Named Prime Minister

    Political

    Former ICJ president nominated by 84 MPs; Hezbollah and Amal abstain from endorsement.

  6. Joseph Aoun Elected President

    Political

    Former army commander becomes president, ending years of political vacuum. Makes Hezbollah disarmament a priority.

  7. Washington-Brokered Ceasefire Takes Effect

    Ceasefire

    60-day ceasefire begins: Israel must withdraw, Hezbollah must retreat north of Litani, Lebanese army deploys south.

  8. Naim Qassem Named New Hezbollah Leader

    Leadership

    Hezbollah's Shura Council elects 71-year-old deputy chief as secretary-general after Israel killed presumed successor.

  9. Israel Launches Ground Invasion of Southern Lebanon

    Military Operation

    IDF enters southern Lebanon for 'limited operations' against Hezbollah, beginning intense ground fighting.

  10. Israel Kills Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah

    Assassination

    Massive airstrike on underground Beirut headquarters kills Nasrallah and at least 33 others, ending his 32-year leadership.

  11. Thousands of Pagers Explode Across Lebanon

    Attack

    Israel detonates pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in coordinated attack, killing 42 and wounding 4,000.

Scenarios

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1

Phased Disarmament Succeeds, Hezbollah Becomes Political-Only Party

Lebanon completes disarmament through February's phase two plan, extending 40km north of Litani to Awali River. Hezbollah, decimated by war losses and unable to rearm with sustained Israeli and US pressure, negotiates political integration rather than face destruction. The US-led monitoring mechanism holds, backed by sustained funding for Lebanon's army. Israel withdraws from the five hilltops after verifying Hezbollah's southern infrastructure is dismantled. Hezbollah transitions to a purely political party, keeping its social services network but surrendering weapons. This mirrors the IRA's evolution after Northern Ireland's Good Friday Agreement—though that took seven years from ceasefire to full disarmament.

Discussed by: Washington Institute, International Crisis Group, Carnegie Endowment analysts
Consensus —
2

Partial Disarmament, De Facto Partition Along Litani River

Lebanon consolidates control south of the Litani but can't extend disarmament northward. Hezbollah surrenders weapons in the south to preserve its northern stronghold, creating a de facto partition. Israel maintains indefinite occupation of the five strategic hilltops as a buffer zone, citing Hezbollah's continued northern presence. The arrangement becomes a frozen conflict—better than war, worse than peace. UN Resolution 1701 remains partially implemented, just as it was from 2006 to 2024. Lebanon regains some sovereignty, Hezbollah survives in weakened form, and everyone pretends this was the goal all along.

Discussed by: Middle East Institute, Lebanese political analysts, Israeli defense commentators
Consensus —
3

Ceasefire Collapses, Israel Reoccupies South Long-Term

Hezbollah resumes attacks, citing Israel's refusal to withdraw from the five hilltops as justification. Israel responds with airstrikes, then ground operations, declaring the ceasefire void due to Lebanese non-compliance. Rather than another limited operation, Israel establishes a formal security zone in southern Lebanon, explicitly rejecting Resolution 1701. Lebanon's government proves too weak to control Hezbollah or prevent the collapse. The US monitoring mechanism fails, international attention shifts elsewhere, and Lebanon faces indefinite occupation. This mirrors Israel's 1985-2000 security zone—which ultimately failed to provide security and birthed Hezbollah as a resistance movement.

Discussed by: Haaretz, Al Jazeera analysts, regional security experts
Consensus —
4

Political Crisis Derails Process, Lebanon Fragments Further

Hezbollah refuses disarmament north of the Litani, triggering a constitutional crisis. Christian and Sunni factions demand enforcement, Shia politicians back Hezbollah's resistance. Aoun and Salam's government collapses under the pressure. Lebanon splinters into sectarian-controlled zones as it did during the 1975-1990 civil war. The army fractures along sectarian lines rather than confront Hezbollah. International funding dries up as Lebanon proves unable to implement the ceasefire terms. The country slides back into failed state status, but this time with an Israeli occupation in the south and Hezbollah dominance in the north and Beirut suburbs.

Discussed by: Lebanon scholars, Carnegie Middle East Center, Crisis Group
Consensus —

Historical Context

UN Resolution 1701 and the 2006 Lebanon War

2006-2024

What Happened

After the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war killed over 1,000, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1701, mandating Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River. Only the Lebanese army and 15,000 UN peacekeepers were supposed to operate there. The ceasefire held, but disarmament never happened. Hezbollah not only stayed in the south but grew exponentially, amassing 150,000 rockets and sophisticated tunnels. UNIFIL was criticized for failing to prevent this, essentially becoming observers rather than enforcers. The resolution's key provisions remained dead letter for 18 years.

Outcome

Short Term

Ceasefire ended the war, Lebanese army deployed alongside UNIFIL in expanded numbers.

Long Term

Complete failure to disarm Hezbollah; militia grew stronger, leading directly to the 2024 war.

Why It's Relevant Today

Lebanon is attempting to actually implement what Resolution 1701 promised but never delivered—the precedent is discouraging.

Northern Ireland: IRA Disarmament After Good Friday Agreement

1998-2005

What Happened

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended most violence in Northern Ireland's decades-long conflict. The deal required paramilitary groups to disarm within two years. The IRA missed the May 2000 deadline, triggering political crisis and assembly suspensions. Unionists demanded proof of disarmament; Republicans claimed no formal links to the IRA. The process took seven years—partial decommissioning in 2001, 2002, and 2003, followed by the IRA announcing its campaign's end in July 2005. Full disarmament was confirmed in September 2005 by the International Commission on Decommissioning. Loyalist groups followed years later.

Outcome

Short Term

Missed deadlines and political crises; process took five years longer than planned.

Long Term

Successful transformation of armed groups into political parties; peace has largely held for two decades.

Why It's Relevant Today

Shows disarmament takes years even with strong enforcement mechanisms and war-weary populations—Lebanon has neither advantage.

Colombia: FARC Disarmament After 2016 Peace Accord

2016-2017

What Happened

After 52 years of civil war, Colombia's government negotiated peace with FARC guerrillas. The November 2016 accord gave FARC five guaranteed Senate seats in exchange for disarming within 180 days. FARC fighters moved to UN-monitored camps and surrendered weapons in phases. The process mostly succeeded—FARC became a political party, though some factions rejected the deal and continued fighting. Transitional justice tribunals addressed war crimes on all sides. The accord is considered one of history's more successful conflict resolutions, though implementation challenges and rural violence persist. Unlike Lebanon, Colombia had no foreign occupier complicating the dynamics.

Outcome

Short Term

FARC disarmed within the 180-day timeline; guerrilla organization became political party.

Long Term

Largely successful peace process, though splinter groups remain active and rural violence continues.

Why It's Relevant Today

Demonstrates that armed groups can disarm when given political participation—but Lebanon's sectarian system and Israeli presence make this path nearly impossible.

Sources

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Al Jazeera UPI The Washington Post Wikipedia UN News The Times of Israel Dawn Al-Monitor The National The Defense Post Al Jazeera Wikipedia Wikipedia Wikipedia Wikipedia Wikipedia The Times of Israel Al Jazeera