Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon after ceasefire
Force in Play
Ceasefire framework has effectively collapsed as Israel expands air and ground operations across Lebanon following Hezbollah’s return to cross-border attacks and mass civilian displacement
Ceasefire framework has effectively collapsed as Israel expands air and ground operations across Lebanon following Hezbollah’s return to cross-border attacks and mass civilian displacement
In late February and early March 2026, the limited pattern of Israeli strikes in Lebanon after the November 2024 ceasefire gave way to a far broader campaign of air and ground operations across the country. After Hezbollah launched a series of rocket and drone attacks into Israel on 2 March 2026 in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Israeli military carried out more than 200 airstrikes across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, issued unprecedented evacuation orders for dozens of areas, and began deeper ground incursions beyond the southern border zone.
In late February and early March 2026, the limited pattern of Israeli strikes in Lebanon after the November 2024 ceasefire gave way to a far broader campaign of air and ground operations across the country. After Hezbollah launched a series of rocket and drone attacks into Israel on 2 March 2026 in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Israeli military carried out more than 200 airstrikes across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, issued unprecedented evacuation orders for dozens of areas, and began deeper ground incursions beyond the southern border zone.
Lebanese authorities report that at least 217 people have been killed and 798 wounded in Lebanon since Israel’s expanded attacks began on a Monday in early March, with more than 95,000 people displaced from their homes in just a few days. United Nations officials and human rights groups warn that Israel’s blanket evacuation orders affecting areas south of the Litani River, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and parts of the Bekaa risk a large‑scale humanitarian disaster, while the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon has voiced serious concern over clear violations of Security Council ceasefire resolutions and damage to its own headquarters.
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon-documented violations since November 2024, including airspace, ground, and sea incursions; UN peacekeepers say recent Israeli airstrikes and incursions are clear violations of relevant Security Council resolutions
217+
People killed since latest escalation
Deaths in Lebanon since Israel’s expanded attacks began in early March 2026, according to Lebanese authorities, with at least 798 wounded
95,000+
Newly displaced in latest escalation
People newly displaced in Lebanon since Israel expanded its attacks in early March 2026, on top of tens of thousands already unable to return to southern homes
5
Israeli positions in Lebanon
Military positions Israel maintains inside Lebanese territory despite earlier withdrawal deadlines under the ceasefire framework
Lebanon Warns of Looming Humanitarian Disaster Amid Expanded Israeli Attacks
Political
Lebanese authorities reported at least 217 people killed, 798 wounded, and more than 95,000 displaced since Israel expanded its attacks, as the prime minister warned of a looming humanitarian disaster and former leaders backed placing war-and-peace decisions solely in state hands.
UN and Rights Groups Condemn Israeli Blanket Displacement Orders
International
UN human rights officials and Amnesty International criticized Israel’s sweeping evacuation and displacement orders in Lebanon as disproportionate and a source of acute humanitarian suffering, urging protection of civilians and respect for international law.
UNIFIL Warns Over Escalating Ceasefire Violations and Evacuation Orders
International
UN peacekeepers in Lebanon said they were seriously concerned by Israeli demands that civilians evacuate from large areas in the south and the Bekaa, and by airstrikes within their area of operations, calling the actions clear violations of Security Council resolutions.
Hezbollah Resumes Cross-Border Attacks After Khamenei Killing
Military
Hezbollah launched a series of rocket and drone attacks into Israel, framing them as retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, ending more than a year of restraint under the 2024 ceasefire.
Israel Issues Mass Evacuation Orders Across Southern Lebanon and Beirut Suburbs
Humanitarian
The Israeli military ordered residents of more than 50 villages in southern Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate, triggering panic and mass flight as rights groups warned of disproportionate and overly broad measures.
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Dozens and Displace Thousands Across Lebanon
Military
Intense Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs killed at least 52 people and wounded 154, with authorities reporting more than 28,500 people forcibly displaced from their homes.
Israeli Drone Strike Kills Three in Yanouh, Including Child
Military
Israeli drone struck a car in Yanouh, killing Hezbollah artillery commander Ahmad Salami, a three-year-old child named Ali Jaber, and the child's father Hassan Jaber. Israel said it was reviewing claims of civilian deaths.
Lebanon Files UN Complaint Against Israeli Violations
Diplomatic
Lebanese government filed formal complaint documenting 6,256 Israeli violations over three months, calling them a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
The UN peacekeeping force announced it had documented over 10,000 Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including 8,100 air violations and 2,600 ground incursions.
Israel Kills Hezbollah Military Chief in Beirut
Military
Israeli strike on Beirut killed Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah's chief of staff, and at least four others. The attack came nearly one year into the ceasefire.
UN Warns Israel Must Stop Killing Returning Civilians
International
UN experts issued a statement demanding Israel stop killing Lebanese civilians attempting to return to their homes in the south.
Joseph Aoun Elected Lebanese President
Political
Former army general Joseph Aoun became Lebanon's 14th president, ending a two-year vacancy. He announced Hezbollah disarmament as a key goal.
US-Brokered Ceasefire Takes Effect
Diplomatic
A ceasefire agreement signed by Israel, Lebanon, and five mediating countries took effect. Terms required Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the Litani River within 60 days.
Naim Qassem Named Hezbollah Secretary-General
Leadership
Hezbollah elected Naim Qassem as its fourth secretary-general after Israel killed both Nasrallah and his expected successor Hashem Safieddine.
Israel Launches Ground Invasion of Southern Lebanon
Military
Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon, marking a major escalation. The IDF would suffer its first casualties on October 2, with eight soldiers killed in one incident.
Israel Kills Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah
Military
Israeli jets dropped over 80 bombs on Hezbollah's underground headquarters in Beirut, killing longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and at least 32 others. Nasrallah had led the group for 32 years.
Scenarios
1
Status Quo Persists: Low-Intensity Strikes Continue Indefinitely
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Al Jazeera analysts
Israel continues targeted strikes against Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure while Hezbollah refrains from retaliation, creating a new normal of one-sided violence. The ceasefire technically holds because Hezbollah doesn't respond, but Israel treats Lebanese territory as a permissive environment for counterterrorism operations. Civilians bear the ongoing cost, and the core issues—Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament—remain unresolved for years.
2
Escalation: Strike Triggers Hezbollah Retaliation and Full Conflict
Discussed by: Wilson Center, Atlantic Council analysts
A strike that causes particularly egregious civilian casualties or kills a senior Hezbollah figure pushes the group to retaliate, breaking its restraint. Cross-border rocket fire resumes, Israel launches a larger military operation, and the ceasefire collapses entirely. Lebanon faces another devastating war before having recovered from the last one.
3
Diplomatic Resolution: Full Implementation of Ceasefire Terms
Discussed by: Washington Institute, Lebanese government officials
International pressure—possibly tied to a broader regional agreement—forces both sides to comply with ceasefire terms. Israel withdraws its remaining forces, Hezbollah begins a phased disarmament process under Lebanese state control, and UNIFIL successfully monitors compliance. This would require significant US and French diplomatic engagement and likely a change in Israeli government policy.
Historical Context
2006 Lebanon War and UN Resolution 1701
July-August 2006
What Happened
A 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah killed over 1,100 people in Lebanon and displaced one million. Israel dropped 7,000 bombs on southern Lebanon; Hezbollah fired 4,000 rockets at northern Israel. The war ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal.
Outcome
Short Term
Ceasefire held. UNIFIL expanded to 15,000 troops. Lebanese army deployed to the south for the first time in decades.
Long Term
Hezbollah never disarmed, instead building the world's largest non-state arsenal. Israel conducted near-daily airspace violations. The resolution's core provisions went unimplemented for 18 years.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2024 ceasefire echoes 1701's structure—international monitoring, mutual withdrawal, Hezbollah disarmament—and is following a similar pattern of partial compliance and one-sided violations.
Israeli Targeted Killings in Lebanon (1990s-2000s)
1992-2008
What Happened
Israel conducted dozens of targeted killings of Hezbollah and Palestinian leaders in Lebanon during and after the Lebanese Civil War. These included car bombs, helicopter strikes, and commando raids that frequently caused civilian casualties.
Outcome
Short Term
Individual operations disrupted Hezbollah's command structure temporarily but did not prevent the group's growth.
Long Term
Hezbollah adapted by dispersing leadership and building redundant command structures. The killings became a persistent source of Lebanese grievance against Israel.
Why It's Relevant Today
Israel's current campaign of strikes against Hezbollah personnel continues a decades-long practice of treating Lebanese territory as a permissive zone for counterterrorism operations, regardless of ceasefire agreements.
