Hezbollah

Force in Play

Rejected the June 26 Trilateral Framework Agreement; Qassem called it 'null and void' and 'a surrender of sovereignty'; Hezbollah was not a party to the deal and continues attacking IDF positions

The US, Israel, and Lebanon signed a 14-point Trilateral Framework Agreement in Washington on June 26. It ties Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah disarmament — Lebanon's army must first deploy to pilot zones, clear Hezbollah out, and pass a US-led assessment. Washington pledged $100 million in aid.

Updated Jul 4

Force in Play

Actively fighting; rejected trilateral framework; maintaining full weapons arsenal

The November 2024 ceasefire collapsed on March 2, 2026, after US-Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Hezbollah to resume rockets and Israel to launch a ground invasion with five divisions. By late June 2026, the war had killed over 4,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than a million, with Israeli forces occupying roughly 580 square kilometers of territory.

Updated Jun 27

Force in Play

Militarily degraded but re-engaged in combat with Israel

Iran has stationed diplomats, intelligence officers, and Revolutionary Guard operatives in Lebanon for more than four decades, building Hezbollah into the most powerful non-state military force in the Middle East. On March 24, 2026, Lebanon's foreign ministry told Iran's newly appointed ambassador-designate to leave the country within five days — the first time Beirut has ever expelled an Iranian envoy.

Updated May 30

Force in Play

Actively fighting Israel; rejected Lebanese government disarmament orders; continuing escalatory attacks

Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon, launched March 1, has systematically destroyed Litani River bridges. Strikes on April 4 targeted the Sohmor and Mashghara connections in eastern Lebanon.

Updated May 30

Force in Play

Lebanon front active; strained by IRGC navy/missile losses

Three U.S. carrier strike groups deployed: USS Abraham Lincoln (Arabian Sea since January 2026), USS Gerald R. Ford (Mediterranean), and USS George H.W. Bush. This triple-carrier presence responded to Iran's crackdown on December 2025 protests.

Updated May 24

Force in Play

Weakened but resisting disarmament

On January 8, 2026, Lebanon's military announced it had completed phase one of disarming Hezbollah and other militias south of the Litani River, bringing weapons under state control for the first time in 40 years. Over 9,000 soldiers swept the region devastated by the 2024 war (4,000 killed, 1.3 million displaced), clearing ordnance and tunnels. Hours later, Iran's foreign minister arrived for talks; the next day, Israel resumed strikes while occupying five hilltops—business as usual despite the milestone.

Updated May 19