Iraq's grinding campaign against Islamic State remnants

Overview

Iraq declared victory over the Islamic State in December 2017 after recapturing Mosul and eliminating the group's territorial caliphate. Eight years later, Iraqi F-16s are still hunting militants in desert hideouts—a reminder that defeating an insurgency's territory is not the same as defeating its fighters.

The February 2026 airstrikes near the ancient city of Hatra killed four militants and destroyed weapons caches, part of an intensified campaign targeting an estimated 1,500 to 3,000 Islamic State fighters still scattered across Iraq and Syria. With American forces scheduled to depart Iraq by late 2026, the question is whether Iraqi security forces can sustain this pressure alone—or whether history will repeat, as it did when the group reconstituted after the 2011 U.S. withdrawal.

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Key Indicators

1,500-3,000

Estimated Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria

Down from a peak of roughly 30,000 fighters controlling territory with 10 million people in 2014-2015.

94%

Decline in Islamic State attacks since 2019

The group's operational tempo has collapsed from hundreds of monthly attacks to sporadic incidents.

Iraqi F-16IQ jets in service

These aircraft have become Iraq's primary precision strike platform against remote hideouts.

~2,000

U.S. troops remaining in Iraq

Scheduled for full withdrawal by end of 2026 as Operation Inherent Resolve concludes.

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People Involved

Mohammed Shia al-Sudani

In office since October 2022

Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi

Led CTS from 2020-2023; received French Legion of Honour in 2022

Organizations Involved

Iraqi Joint Operations Command

Military Command

Coordinates all Iraqi security operations against Islamic State remnants

The central coordinating body for Iraq's military, security services, and counterterrorism forces conducting operations against Islamic State cells.

Islamic State (ISIS)

Terrorist Organization

Degraded insurgency; no territorial control; conducting low-level guerrilla operations

A militant Sunni jihadist group that controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria from 2014-2017, now reduced to scattered cells conducting sporadic attacks.

Iraqi Air Force

Military Branch

Primary platform for precision strikes against Islamic State hideouts

Iraq's aerial warfare branch, operating 34 F-16IQ Viper jets as its primary precision strike capability against remote militant positions.

Timeline

F-16 Airstrikes Near Hatra Kill Four Militants
Military

Iraqi Air Force strikes Islamic State hideouts near the ancient UNESCO site, destroying weapons and logistics equipment.
February 12th, 2026
Two Senior Islamic State Operatives Killed in Anbar
Military

Iraqi security operation forces two high-ranking militants to detonate themselves rather than face capture.
February 6th, 2026
Islamic State Ambush Kills 17 in Kirkuk
Attack

Militants attack security forces near Kirkuk, killing nine police officers and eight civilians in one of the year's deadliest incidents.
December 18th, 2024
U.S. Announces Coalition Mission to End by 2026
Political

Washington and Baghdad agree to conclude Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq by September 2025, with full U.S. withdrawal by end of 2026.
September 27th, 2024
Joint U.S.-Iraqi Raid Kills 15 Militants
Military

Coalition operation in western Iraq eliminates Islamic State fighters; seven U.S. personnel wounded.
August 29th, 2024
Islamic State Loses Last Syrian Territory
Military

Syrian Democratic Forces capture Baghuz, eliminating the group's final territorial foothold.
March 23rd, 2019
Iraq Declares Victory Over Islamic State
Political

Government announces end of war after recapturing all territory. Islamic State has lost 95% of its holdings.
December 9th, 2017
Iraq Declares Mosul Liberated
Military

Prime Minister Abadi announces victory after nine months of urban combat that left much of the city destroyed.
July 10th, 2017
Battle for Mosul Begins
Military

Iraqi forces launch Operation "We Are Coming, Nineveh" to recapture the Islamic State's Iraqi capital.
October 16th, 2016
Iraq Receives First F-16 Fighters
Military

First batch of F-16IQ jets arrives, rebuilding Iraq's precision strike capability.
July 13th, 2015
Islamic State Destroys Ancient Hatra
Cultural

Militants bulldoze the UNESCO World Heritage Site, part of systematic destruction of pre-Islamic antiquities.
March 7th, 2015
U.S. Begins Airstrikes Against Islamic State
Military

President Obama authorizes air campaign to halt Islamic State advance, marking start of Operation Inherent Resolve.
August 8th, 2014
Grand Ayatollah Sistani Issues Mobilization Fatwa
Political

Iraq's top Shia cleric calls for volunteers to defend Baghdad, leading to formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
June 15th, 2014
Islamic State Captures Mosul
Military

Militants seize Iraq's second-largest city as Iraqi Army units collapse. The fall triggers a national crisis and international military intervention.
June 10th, 2014

Scenarios

Predict which scenario wins. Contrarian picks score more — points lock in when the scenario resolves.

Predictions leaderboard

Islamic State Contained as Low-Level Insurgency

Iraqi forces maintain current pressure after the U.S. departure, keeping the Islamic State degraded to sporadic attacks with no territorial gains. F-16 strikes continue targeting desert hideouts while ground operations disrupt financing and recruitment networks. The group persists as a security nuisance but poses no existential threat to the Iraqi state. This scenario requires sustained intelligence cooperation with remaining coalition partners and continued U.S. support for Iraqi Air Force maintenance.

Discussed by: U.S. Central Command assessments, UN Security Council reports, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

Consensus —

Security Vacuum Enables Islamic State Reconstitution

The withdrawal of American forces creates intelligence and capability gaps that Iraqi security services cannot fill. Sectarian governance under a potential Nouri al-Maliki return alienates Sunni communities in areas where the Islamic State recruits. Combined with instability in Syria and the risk of prison breaks freeing thousands of detained fighters, the group rebuilds toward 2014-level capacity over two to three years. Analysts warn this mirrors the 2011-2014 period when U.S. withdrawal preceded the group's dramatic resurgence.

Discussed by: Hudson Institute, Foreign Affairs, Congressional Research Service

Consensus —

Syrian Spillover Destabilizes Iraqi Border Regions

The Islamic State's stronger Syrian branch exploits the post-Assad governance vacuum to reconsolidate, using supply lines across the Iraqi border. With 8,500 detained militants in Syrian Democratic Forces custody at risk of liberation, a mass prison break or facility collapse floods both countries with combat-experienced fighters. Iraqi forces find themselves fighting a two-front insurgency that overwhelms their capacity without coalition air support.

Discussed by: Soufan Center, Pentagon Inspector General reports, UK Parliament briefings

Consensus —

Islamic State Effectively Eliminated in Iraq

Sustained operations reduce the group below the threshold of operational viability. Remaining cells are killed, captured, or scattered into irrelevance. Iraq's security forces demonstrate independent counterterrorism capability, and the group's financial networks dry up. While this outcome represents Iraqi government messaging, most external analysts consider it aspirational rather than imminent given the group's resilience and continued $10 million cash reserves.

Discussed by: Iraqi government statements, Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS

Consensus —

Historical Context

Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgence (2011-2014)

December 2011 - June 2014

What Happened

The U.S. completed its military withdrawal from Iraq in December 2011, removing the intelligence and strike capabilities that had reduced al-Qaeda in Iraq to a shadow of its former strength. Within three years, the group—rebranded as the Islamic State—had rebuilt its networks, exploited Sunni grievances against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's sectarian governance, and captured Mosul with 1,500 fighters routing 30,000 Iraqi soldiers.

Outcome

Short Term

The Islamic State declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria, controlling territory with 10 million residents and generating $2 billion in annual revenue.

Long Term

The resurgence required a years-long multinational military campaign to reverse, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and the near-total destruction of cities like Mosul and Raqqa.

Why It's Relevant Today

The scheduled 2026 U.S. departure echoes the 2011 withdrawal. Analysts cite this precedent when warning that reducing pressure prematurely could enable another reconstitution cycle.

The Surge and Awakening Councils (2007-2008)

January 2007 - December 2008

What Happened

Facing a collapsing security situation, the U.S. deployed 30,000 additional troops while cultivating Sunni tribal militias—the "Awakening Councils"—to turn against al-Qaeda in Iraq. The combination of military pressure and local partners reduced violence by 80% and pushed AQI to the brink of destruction.

Outcome

Short Term

Al-Qaeda in Iraq was reduced to fewer than 1,000 fighters by 2010, effectively defeated as a military force.

Long Term

The gains proved reversible when U.S. forces withdrew and the Maliki government alienated Sunni communities, demonstrating that military victories require sustained political follow-through.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current strategy of degrading Islamic State cells mirrors the Surge's approach, but success depends on whether Iraqi governance avoids the sectarian mistakes that enabled the group's 2014 comeback.

Libya Post-Qaddafi Security Collapse (2011-2014)

October 2011 - Present

What Happened

The NATO-backed overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi removed the central authority without replacing it with effective governance. Armed militias filled the vacuum, weapons proliferated across North Africa, and the Islamic State established a territorial foothold in Sirte by 2015.

Outcome

Short Term

Libya descended into civil war between competing governments, with multiple foreign powers backing rival factions.

Long Term

The country remains divided, demonstrating how quickly security gains evaporate without governance capacity to sustain them.

Why It's Relevant Today

Libya illustrates the risks of withdrawing security support before local institutions can fill the gap—a concern analysts raise about the Iraq transition timeline.