Pull to refresh
Logo
What Changed
Following Why Sign Up
US completes Iraq withdrawal after two decades of military presence

US completes Iraq withdrawal after two decades of military presence

Force in Play

Baghdad takes over security as militias split over disarmament and a June 2027 deadline

October 5th, 2026: Iran-backed militias say they will stop attacks, but not disarm

Overview

Updated Oct 20

The last US troops left Iraq on September 30, ending a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion. About 2,500 soldiers departed their remaining bases, closing the 12-year coalition campaign against the Islamic State group.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi must now bring armed groups under state control; his disarmament deadline has slipped to June 2027. Moqtada al-Sadr dissolved his militias on the day US troops left, and the cabinet sent parliament a bill giving the Popular Mobilization Forces its own legal framework. Al-Zaidi has said five groups agreed to hand over weapons, but Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba refuse.

Why it matters

Who controls Iraq's army, oil, and borders—Baghdad or Iran's armed factions—now depends on a disarmament deadline many militias reject.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

253
Days until militia disarmament deadline
Iraqi government target for disarming all militias is June 30, 2027.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

Ali al-Zaidi
Ali al-Zaidi
Prime Minister of Iraq
Pushing a June 30, 2027 disarmament deadline; says five groups agreed to hand over weapons, while hardliners refuse
 Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Former US president (2021-2025)
Negotiated the 2024 withdrawal agreement
 Masrour Barzani
Masrour Barzani
Prime Minister of Iraq's Kurdistan Region
Requested Baghdad's protection as US air defenses leave Erbil; Peshmerga Ministry cites 1,000+ drone and missile attacks
 Douglas Silliman
Douglas Silliman
Former US ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait
Commented on the withdrawal's effect on militias

Organizations Involved

Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve
Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve
Multinational military coalition
Mission in Iraq concluded September 2026; CJTF-OIR now headquartered in Jordan

US-led multinational coalition that fought ISIS in Iraq and Syria since 2014.
Iraqi government
Iraqi government
National government
Holds sole responsibility for security; cabinet completed and a Popular Mobilization Forces bill sent to parliament

Baghdad administration that must now secure Iraq without US combat support.
IR
Iran-backed militia factions
Armed militia network
Split: some factions have agreed to hand over weapons, while Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba refuse

Armed groups tied to Iran, partly integrated into Iraq's official security forces.

Timeline

March 2003 October 2026

14 events Latest: October 5th, 2026 · 1 month ago Showing 8 of 14
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Iran-backed militias say they will stop attacks, but not disarm

    Latest Security

    Militia leaders said attacks would halt now that US forces have left, apart from firing at enemy aircraft. They have not agreed to hand over weapons.

  2. Iran-backed factions attach new conditions to disarmament

    Security

    Several Iran-backed groups say they will surrender weapons only if the US also ends political and economic interference in Iraq, not just withdraws troops. Talks continue in Baghdad as the government shelved its September 30 deadline.

  3. Parliament completes al-Zaidi's cabinet

    Politics

    The Council of Representatives approved 11 ministers and three deputy prime ministers after five months of talks. One deputy premier is a prominent Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq figure.

  4. US completes Iraq withdrawal

    Withdrawal

    Last troops depart, ending 23-year presence and 12-year anti-ISIS mission.

  5. CENTCOM declares end of Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq

    Withdrawal

    US Central Command confirmed the orderly departure from Erbil Air Base, ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission. CJTF-OIR remains operational, now headquartered in Jordan.

  6. Three militias place weapons under state authority; hardliners refuse

    Security

    Asaib Ahl Al Haq, Kataib Imam Ali, and Saraya Al Salam say they have placed weapons under state control. Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba refuse to disarm until foreign troops leave.

  7. Moqtada al-Sadr dissolves his militias

    Security

    Sadr dissolved the Promised Day Brigade and Saraya al Salam on the day US troops left. Fighters are expected to join Iraq's formal security forces.

  8. Final US forces begin departure

    Withdrawal

    Remaining 2,500 troops start leaving last bases; exit completes September 30.

  9. Cabinet approves bill governing the Popular Mobilization Forces

    Politics

    The cabinet approved an 18-article organizational bill and sent it to parliament. It would give the PMF dedicated legislation and a stronger claim on the national budget.

  10. Baghdad says it is close to buying air defense systems

    Security

    Iraqi military spokesperson Sabah al-Numan says Iraq is near a deal to procure air defense systems from South Korea, Turkey and the United States, after coalition protection ended with the withdrawal.

  11. US and Iraq agree to end coalition mission

    Agreement

    Baghdad and Washington schedule a phased troop drawdown.

  12. ISIS seizes Mosul; US returns

    Conflict

    Islamic State captures Iraq's second city. US redeploys to lead anti-ISIS coalition.

  13. First US withdrawal completed

    Withdrawal

    Last US troops leave Iraq; occupation ends.

  14. US-led invasion of Iraq begins

    Conflict

    Coalition forces invade, toppling Saddam Hussein's government within weeks.

Scenarios

1

Iraqi government completes militia disarmament by mid-2027

Unlikely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Al Jazeera and Iraqi government statements; Douglas Silliman suggests the withdrawal aims to weaken militias politically

Al-Zaidi's plan buys a 90-day ceasefire, during which armed groups halt attacks in exchange for assurances that US forces will not target them. Weapons then transfer to state control gradually, completing June 30, 2027. Success would make Iraq's militias answer to Baghdad alone.

2

Iran-backed militias reject disarmament, retain armed power

Likely Resolves by Jul 1, 2027

Discussed by: Reuters, The National, France 24; militia leaders have signaled refusal

Several powerful Iran-backed groups have already rejected disarmament or attached conditions. If they keep their weapons, they remain a parallel military force, a lever for Iranian influence, and a capacity to strike US and Israeli targets across the region. The June 2027 deadline would pass unmet.

3

ISIS launches new offensive amid Iraq's security gap

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Reuters and France 24, citing warnings of a resurgent ISIS

ISIS has been reduced to a low-level insurgency but keeps sleeper cells. With coalition air support and intelligence gone, Iraqi forces may struggle to contain a coordinated campaign, especially in remote areas near the Syrian border. A major offensive would test whether Iraq can secure its own territory.

4

Sadr's former fighters are absorbed into state security forces

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: The National, citing Iraqi officials and analysts

Moqtada al-Sadr dissolved Saraya al Salam and the Promised Day Brigade on September 30. His fighters are expected to be folded into Iraq's formal security apparatus under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, which could give Sadr influence inside the state while removing his separate armed force.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

December 2011

First US withdrawal from Iraq (2011)

In December 2011, the final US troops left Iraq under a status-of-forces agreement. The US left behind a government fractured along sectarian lines and an army trained by American advisers.

Then

Within three years, ISIS seized Mosul and much of northern Iraq as the Iraqi army collapsed.

Now

US forces redeployed in 2014, launching the coalition campaign that defeated ISIS's territorial caliphate by 2019.

Why this matters now

The 2011 exit did not end US involvement in Iraq; it delayed a return. The 2026 exit faces the same risk.

August 2021

US withdrawal from Afghanistan (2021)

US forces left Afghanistan in August 2021 after a 20-year presence. The Afghan government collapsed within weeks, and the Taliban retook Kabul before the final flights departed.

Then

The Taliban reassumed control; the US embassy evacuated by airlift.

Now

The US ended its longest war. Analysts cite the episode as a reference point for the risks of rapid withdrawal.

Why this matters now

Iraq's security forces, like Afghanistan's, were built around US backing. The 2021 fall of Kabul shows how quickly trained forces can fold when that backing disappears.

Sources

(24)
+18
Reuters Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle The National France 24 CBC News The Washington Post Al-Monitor Rudaw US Central Command CBS News PBS News Euronews CNN Atlantic Council Iraq Center for Financial Studies NPR 19FortyFive GlobalPost AP News The National The National Al Jazeera The National