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Global smartphone shipments hit 14-year low amid memory shortage

Global smartphone shipments hit 14-year low amid memory shortage

Money Moves

AI data centres are soaking up memory chip supply, driving up phone prices and pushing vendors to abandon budget models

October 15th, 2026: Omdia and IDC release preliminary Q3 data

Overview

Updated Nov 1

Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 to 254.7 million units, the lowest third-quarter total since 2013, according to Omdia. Memory chip costs are up about 350% since last year because AI data centres are absorbing supply.

Vendors are raising prices and dropping cheap models. Africa recorded the steepest regional fall at 39%, and Omdia expects global shipments to drop 12% in 2026 and another 6% in 2027. Samsung and Apple now account for about 45% of shipments, up 8 percentage points in a year.

Why it matters

Cheap phones are disappearing from shelves, and buyers in Africa and other emerging markets are being hit hardest.

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Key Indicators

22%
IDC's Q3 2026 shipment decline
IDC's preliminary estimate put shipments at 255.3 million units.
20%
Omdia's Q3 2026 shipment decline
Shipments fell to 254.7 million units, the lowest third-quarter total since 2013.
~350%
Memory cost increase since 2025
AI infrastructure projects have taken memory chip supply, per IDC.
39%
Africa shipment decline, Q3 2026
The steepest regional drop, as vendors pulled back from low-margin markets, per Omdia.
45%
Samsung + Apple combined share
Up about 8 percentage points from a year earlier, per Omdia.

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People Involved

Hayden Hou
Hayden Hou
Principal Analyst at Omdia
Tracking the memory-driven downturn and its competitive effects
LZ
Lucas Zhong
Senior Analyst at Omdia
Analyzing vendor strategies in emerging markets
NP
Nabila Popal
Senior Research Director at IDC
Warning the market has not yet reached the bottom
SJ
Shilpi Jain
Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research
Documenting consumer behavior shifts
SC
Sanyam Chaurasia
Principal Analyst at Omdia
Tracking the regional impact of rising device prices

Organizations Involved

Samsung
Samsung
Smartphone manufacturer
Market leader with 22.6-23% share in Q3 2026

Samsung retained the top spot in Q3 2026, helped by Galaxy Z Fold8 demand and stable component supplies for mid-range devices.
Apple
Apple
Technology company
Second place with 22-22.4% share in Q3 2026

Apple's share crossed 20% for the first time in a Q3, despite a year-on-year shipment decline and reduced iPhone 18 orders.
Xiaomi
Xiaomi
Smartphone manufacturer
Third place with 10-12% share, shipments down over 30%

Xiaomi saw shipments fall more than 30% as it cut exposure to lower-priced devices and some overseas markets to protect margins.
International Data Corporation (IDC)
International Data Corporation (IDC)
Market research firm
Published Q3 2026 preliminary data showing 22% decline

IDC reported the steepest quarterly decline on record, with shipments at 255.3 million units.
Omdia
Omdia
Market research firm
Q3 2026 shipments fell 20% to 254.7 million units; forecasts a 12% decline for 2026

Omdia estimated a 20% year-on-year decline to 254.7 million units, the lowest third quarter since 2013, with Africa down 39%.
Counterpoint Research
Counterpoint Research
Market research firm
Published Q3 2026 preliminary data showing 20% decline

Counterpoint reported the worst Q3 since 2012, with consumers holding devices longer and turning to refurbished options.

Timeline

2025 October 2026

6 events Latest: October 15th, 2026 · 4 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Omdia and IDC release preliminary Q3 data

    Latest Market data

    Omdia estimates a 20% decline to 254.7 million units, the lowest Q3 since 2013, with Africa down 39%; IDC reports a 22% decline to 255.3 million units.

  2. Counterpoint reports worst Q3 since 2012

    Market data

    Counterpoint's preliminary data shows Q3 shipments fell 20% YoY, the lowest third-quarter level in 14 years.

  3. Apple cuts iPhone 18 orders by 15-20%

    Corporate

    Apple reduces iPhone 18 orders amid soft demand and rising component costs, per October data.

  4. Transsion shares fall 7% in Hong Kong debut

    Market

    The Chinese low-cost phone maker, focused on African markets, sees its shares drop 7% on debut amid the downturn.

  5. Q2 2026 shipments decline 6% year-on-year

    Market data

    Omdia records a 6% YoY decline in Q2 2026, the first sign of the downturn that would accelerate sharply in Q3.

  6. Memory costs begin surging as AI infrastructure projects corner supply

    Market shift

    AI infrastructure projects begin consuming memory chip supply, driving component costs up roughly 350% over the following year.

Scenarios

1

Memory costs ease, market returns to growth by 2028

Possible Resolves by End of 2028

Discussed by: IDC

IDC's Nabila Popal says the market has not yet reached the bottom, with growth constrained through 2027 and recovery pushed to 2028 at least. If memory costs stabilize and consumer demand recovers, shipments could return to year-on-year growth.

2

Premium shift accelerates, entry-level market shrinks

Likely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Omdia

Omdia analysts say vendors are prioritizing average selling price growth and portfolio optimization. If memory costs stay elevated, vendors will keep cutting entry-level devices, pushing consumers toward premium models or refurbished devices.

3

Samsung and Apple consolidate further

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Omdia, IDC

Both companies are gaining share as mass-market competitors struggle. Omdia notes their combined share rose 8 points to 45%. If the trend continues, they could exceed 50% combined.

4

Emerging-market slump deepens as vendors retreat from cheap phones

Likely Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Omdia

Africa shipments fell 39% in Q3 2026 as vendors cut low-margin devices and raised prices. Omdia says emerging markets, once the main source of volume growth, now face the sharpest pressure from higher device prices.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2020-2021

Global chip shortage (2020-2021)

Pandemic demand for electronics collided with supply disruptions, causing a global semiconductor shortage. Automakers cut production, and consumer electronics prices rose as manufacturers allocated scarce chips to high-margin products.

Then

Production cuts, price increases, and allocation of scarce chips to premium products.

Now

Companies diversified supply chains, and governments invested in domestic chip production, including the U.S. CHIPS Act.

Why this matters now

Like today's memory shortage, the 2020-21 crisis forced vendors to prioritize high-margin products and reshaped competitive positions.

2022

Smartphone market downturn (2022)

Post-pandemic demand normalization, inflation, and economic uncertainty caused smartphone shipments to fall sharply. IDC reported record quarterly declines as consumers delayed upgrades.

Then

Vendors cut shipments, focused on premium devices, and reduced entry-level portfolios.

Now

The market shifted toward premium devices, and average selling prices rose.

Why this matters now

The current downturn follows a similar pattern but is driven by supply-side constraints (memory costs) rather than demand-side weakness.

Sources

(13)
+7
Omdia Reuters via Investing.com The Verge Mobile World Live Semafor Telecompaper India Today TelecomTV Seeking Alpha AFP The Register Telecompaper AFP