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PC shipments post record Q3 decline as AI memory costs surge

PC shipments post record Q3 decline as AI memory costs surge

Money Moves

Worst third-quarter drop on record, with memory prices set to keep climbing

October 13th, 2026: Q4 DRAM contract prices projected to rise 10-15%

Overview

Updated Oct 17

PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million units in the third quarter of 2026, the worst third-quarter drop IDC has recorded. Lenovo, Dell, and HP each shipped more than 20% fewer machines as an AI-driven memory shortage squeezed the chips available for consumer devices.

Memory and storage now make up nearly 40% of a PC's parts cost, up from about 15%, and IDC says memory costs have risen roughly 350% since last year. TrendForce expects contract prices to climb another 10-15% in the fourth quarter. The squeeze has also hit smartphones: IDC and Omdia put their third-quarter shipment declines at 22% and 20%.

Why it matters

If memory prices stay high, PCs and phones cost more for years, and the shortage could last into 2028.

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Key Indicators

20.1%
Year-over-year decline in Q3 2026 PC shipments
Worst Q3 decline on record, per IDC
62.7M
PC units shipped in Q3 2026
Down from 78.5 million in Q3 2025
40%
Memory and storage share of PC parts cost
Up from a typical 15%, per Omdia
9.1%
Sequential decline from Q2 2026
Q3 usually outpaces Q2; this year it fell
+10-15%
Projected Q4 DRAM contract price rise
Quarter over quarter, per TrendForce
20-22%
Q3 2026 smartphone shipment decline
Estimates from IDC and Omdia; Counterpoint put it at 20%
350%
Memory cost increase since last year
Per IDC, with costs still rising

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People Involved

Jitesh Ubrani
Jitesh Ubrani
Research director for consumer devices at IDC
Tracking the PC market decline
 Namrata Banerjee
Namrata Banerjee
Principal analyst at Gartner
Tracking the PC market
 Ben Yeh
Ben Yeh
Principal analyst at Omdia
Tracking PC and component markets

Organizations Involved

International Data Corporation (IDC)
International Data Corporation (IDC)
Market research firm
Publishes the most widely cited PC shipment tracker

IDC publishes the quarterly PC shipment tracker that the industry and press most often cite.
Gartner
Gartner
Technology research firm
Publishes independent PC shipment estimates

Gartner publishes its own quarterly PC shipment estimates, which differ slightly from IDC's.
Omdia
Omdia
Market research firm
Publishes independent PC shipment estimates

Omdia tracks PC and component markets, including memory pricing.
Lenovo
Lenovo
PC manufacturer
World's largest PC maker, shipments down 22.4% in Q3 2026

Lenovo remained the market leader despite a 22.4% year-over-year shipment decline.
HP Inc.
HP Inc.
PC manufacturer
Steepest decline among top vendors, shipments down 30.9%

HP recorded the steepest decline among top PC vendors in Q3 2026.

Timeline

2025 October 2026

8 events Latest: October 13th, 2026 · 4 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Q4 DRAM contract prices projected to rise 10-15%

    Latest Forecast

    TrendForce projects commodity DRAM contract prices will climb 10-15% quarter over quarter in Q4 as AI server demand keeps squeezing capacity.

  2. Smartphone shipments fall 20%, worst Q3 since 2012

    Report

    Counterpoint Research reports global smartphone shipments fell 20% year over year in Q3, hit by the same memory shortage driving PC declines.

  3. Q3 2026 PC shipments post record decline

    Report

    IDC reports shipments fell 20.1% year over year, the worst Q3 decline on record.

  4. Nanya posts record Q3 margins on DRAM price surge

    Financial report

    Taiwan's Nanya Technology reported an 85.7% gross margin for Q3, driven by a more than 60% quarter-over-quarter jump in DRAM selling prices.

  5. PC makers return to DDR4 platforms

    Market shift

    Gigabyte announced its B760 and H610 motherboards will support next-generation LGA1700 processors, extending DDR4's life as memory costs climb.

  6. Memory makers warn of prolonged shortage

    Statement

    Micron and Samsung executives indicate component shortages could continue through 2028.

  7. Vendors stock up ahead of price hikes

    Market shift

    PC vendors and channels stock up on inventory ahead of memory price hikes.

  8. AI demand tightens memory supply

    Market shift

    AI demand for high-bandwidth memory and server DRAM limits capacity for consumer devices.

Scenarios

1

Memory shortage eases, PC shipments recover

Possible Resolves by Apr 15, 2027

Discussed by: Omdia expects a 7% decline in 2027, which would be a smaller drop than 2026 but not a recovery.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are expanding memory production. If new capacity comes online faster than expected, memory prices could fall, PC prices would follow, and demand would recover. Omdia expects a 7% decline in 2027, which would be a smaller drop than 2026 but not a recovery.

2

Shortage persists, market keeps shrinking

Likely Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: Micron and Samsung executives warned the shortage could continue through 2028. Omdia expects a 24% decline in Q4 2026.

If memory supply stays tight, prices remain elevated, and PC demand keeps falling. Omdia projects a 24% year-over-year decline in Q4 2026, and Micron's CEO expects the shortage to tighten further into 2027 and 2028.

3

Prices ease, demand stabilizes at lower level

Possible Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: IDC expects PC prices to remain above year-ago levels even as channels clear inventory.

Vendors and retailers may cut prices to clear inventory, offering short-term relief. But IDC expects PC prices to remain above year-ago levels even as channels clear inventory, so demand stabilizes at a lower baseline rather than recovering to pre-shortage levels.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2022 - March 2023

Post-pandemic PC crash (2022-2023)

PC shipments fell 28.2% in Q4 2022 and 28.7% in Q1 2023 as pandemic-era demand evaporated and excess inventory piled up. The market had boomed during remote work, then collapsed when people returned to offices.

Then

Vendors cut production and cleared inventory through discounts.

Now

The market stabilized at a lower baseline, with shipments settling below pandemic peaks.

Why this matters now

The 2022-2023 crash came from excess inventory, while the 2026 decline comes from supply constraints and high prices. Both show how quickly PC demand can collapse.

2021-2022

Global chip shortage (2021-2022)

A global semiconductor shortage, triggered by pandemic demand for electronics and supply disruptions, forced automakers to cut production and drove up prices for cars and electronics. Ford, GM, and Toyota all idled plants.

Then

Automakers prioritized high-margin vehicles, and consumers faced long waits and higher prices.

Now

The shortage accelerated investment in new chip capacity and reshoring efforts.

Why this matters now

Like the 2021 chip shortage, the 2026 memory shortage shows how a supply constraint in one component can ripple through an entire industry.

October 2011

Thailand floods and HDD shortage (2011)

Floods in Thailand, which produced about 40% of the world's hard disk drives, shut down factories and sent HDD prices up sharply. PC prices rose as a result.

Then

HDD prices roughly doubled, and PC makers passed costs to consumers.

Now

The shortage accelerated the shift to solid-state drives and pushed manufacturers to diversify production.

Why this matters now

A single-component supply shock raised PC prices and suppressed demand, much like the current memory shortage.

Sources

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Ars Technica PCMag Gartner Tom's Hardware Computerworld PC Gamer NeoTeo IT-Online PithWire Slashdot Tech Insider BigGo Finance CXO Today The Register PC Test Bench BigGo Finance BigGo Finance