San Francisco's El Niño emergency is in its third week, and the water has not finished with the waterfront. The National Weather Service extended a coastal flood advisory through Friday, with Tuesday's high tide forecast at 1.5 feet above normal at the city gauge.
Public Works gave away about 800 sandbags at Marina Green on Nov. 7 and has three more giveaway days before Dec. 5, starting Nov. 14 at the Sunset Circle parking lot. A storm out of Alaska is due Friday with gusts up to 40 mph, and the Port plans temporary barriers at four waterfront sites while permanent Embarcadero work waits until 2029.
Why it matters
High tides can flood low-lying streets even without rain, and the city's stockpile is the buffer between a wet winter and a repeat of 1998.
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Key Indicators
12.4 in
Record October sea-level gap
San Francisco's average sea level ran 12.4 inches above NOAA predictions in October, the largest monthly difference on record.
98%
Chance of very strong El Niño by December
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a 98% chance of a very strong El Niño for the three-month period ending in December.
800
Sandbags handed out at first giveaway
Public Works distributed roughly 800 sandbags at Marina Green on Nov. 7 and had to bring in more supplies before the 2 p.m. cutoff.
20,000
Sandbags staged by Public Works
San Francisco Public Works had more than 20,000 sandbags staged as of late October and restocks as needed.
1.5 ft
Tuesday high tide above normal
The National Weather Service forecast the San Francisco gauge to reach 1.5 feet above normal at 11:04 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 10, with elevated tides through the week.
14 events
Latest: 2 days ago
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November 2026
Port plans temporary flood barriers at four waterfront sites
LatestPreparation
The Port of San Francisco will install temporary flood barriers at four locations this winter while longer-term seawall projects move toward a 2029 downtown construction start.
Coastal flood advisory extended through Friday
Warning
The National Weather Service extended the advisory for San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay shorelines through 4 p.m. Friday, Nov. 13, warning of up to 1.6 feet of flooding in low-lying areas. The San Francisco gauge was forecast to reach 1.5 feet above normal at 11:04 a.m. Tuesday.
First major rainstorm forecast to reach the Bay Area Friday
Forecast
A storm out of Alaska was forecast to bring significant rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph starting Friday, with possible downed trees and power outages.
First Sandbag Saturday draws a crowd at Marina Green
Preparation
Public Works handed out about 800 sandbags by noon at its first neighborhood giveaway and brought in extra supplies after running out before the 2 p.m. cutoff.
October 2026
National Weather Service extends coastal flood advisory to Saturday
Warning
The advisory now runs until 6 p.m. PDT Saturday, Oct. 31, and covers the San Francisco, San Pablo and Monterey bay shorelines. Forecasts show up to 1.9 feet of inundation in low-lying areas.
San Francisco records highest October tide
Measurement
San Francisco's tide reading on Wednesday was the highest recorded for October, breaking a record set the day before. Tides across the state set records that week.
Sausalito houseboat dock access cut off by high water
Impact
Water flooded parking lots and blocked dock access in Sausalito. A houseboat resident said water came within about a foot of the community's emergency water system and its power lines.
Marin County readies 45,000 sandbags
Preparation
Marin County added a new sandbagging machine and prepared 45,000 sandbags for distribution in the coming weeks. Emergency Management Director Steven Torrence called this week a trial run for king tides expected during Thanksgiving week.
High tide floods the Embarcadero
Impact
High water washed over the Embarcadero in calm weather, cutting off parts of Pier 14 and closing sections of the sidewalk and bike lane.
San Francisco declares local state of emergency
Declaration
The mayor declared a local state of emergency to cut through red tape and speed storm preparations ahead of the El Niño season.
Coastal flood advisory issued for Bay Area shoreline
Warning
The National Weather Service issued a coastal flood advisory from Saturday morning through Thursday afternoon, warning of up to 1.9 feet of inundation above ground in low-lying areas. Tides at the San Francisco gauge are forecast to peak Wednesday at 1.9 feet above normal.
UC Davis report flags flood risk at SFO and coastal routes
Report
A UC Davis report found that with sea levels rising and a strong El Niño expected to peak this winter, parts of California's coast, major transportation routes and San Francisco International Airport face elevated flood risk.
Newsom directs state agencies to stage flood supplies
Declaration
Governor Newsom directed state agencies to prepare 6.2 million sandbags, more than 52,000 feet of portable flood barriers and 400,000 tons of rock for emergency levee repairs, the Washington Post reported.
September 2026
California declares state of emergency for El Niño
Declaration
Governor Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency to prepare for the developing El Niño season, allowing the state to stage resources and coordinate with local governments.
Scenarios
1
El Niño brings severe storms, San Francisco sees flooding
Likely
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: National Weather Service, local emergency officials
If the El Niño materializes as forecast, San Francisco could experience heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides. The city's emergency declaration is meant to mitigate damage, but if storms overwhelm infrastructure, the city may need to issue evacuation orders.
2
El Niño weaker than expected, minimal impact
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: NOAA forecasters
El Niño could weaken or shift, resulting in less rainfall than predicted. If that happens, the city's preparations may be unnecessary but not harmful.
3
Preparations prove insufficient, city faces criticism
Unlikely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Local media, residents
If the city's preparations are inadequate and storms cause significant damage, there could be public criticism and calls for better planning. This scenario would unfold if the city is overwhelmed despite the emergency declaration.
4
Federal aid falls short for Bay Area storm recovery
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: District 6 Supervisor Matt Dorsey
Dorsey said San Francisco may not be able to count on substantial federal help after this winter's storms, unlike the El Niño storms of the late 1990s, when the Clinton administration sent tens of millions of dollars to the Bay Area. Without a federal disaster declaration, the city would carry the recovery bill itself.
5
King tides in November push flooding past this week's levels
Possible
Resolves by Dec 15, 2026
Discussed by: Marin County Emergency Management Director Steven Torrence, Guardian experts
Officials say this week's high tides are a preview of larger king tides expected next month. Experts warn that El Niño could raise tides several feet above the levels recorded this week.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
1997-1998
1997-98 El Niño
A powerful El Niño brought record rainfall to California, causing widespread flooding, mudslides, and billions in damage. San Francisco saw severe storms and coastal erosion.
Then
The state declared emergencies and spent heavily on recovery.
Now
It prompted improved flood control and preparedness measures across the state.
Why this matters now
The current forecast resembles the 1997-98 event, and cities are using that experience to prepare earlier.
2 of 2
2015-2016
2015-16 El Niño
A strong El Niño was predicted but delivered less rain than expected in California, easing drought but causing localized flooding.
Then
Preparations were largely unnecessary, but some areas saw minor flooding.
Now
It highlighted the uncertainty of long-range forecasts and the value of preparedness regardless of outcome.
Why this matters now
This shows that even a strong El Niño may not hit every region, but early action is still prudent.
