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NOAA declares El Niño has formed, forecasts a very strong event

NOAA declares El Niño has formed, forecasts a very strong event

Built World

Pacific temperatures have smashed records, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño all but certain through January-March 2027 and a historic event increasingly likely.

October 8th, 2026: NOAA advisory: strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through March 2027

Overview

Updated Oct 16

NOAA declared El Niño on June 11, and the event has since blown past forecasters' early estimates. By October, Pacific sea-surface temperatures exceeded 4.0°C above average in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and NOAA put a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January-March 2027 at greater than 83 percent. The chance the event tops the strongest on record since 1950 reached 83 percent for October-December.

Impacts are already showing up. The Atlantic saw its latest first hurricane in the satellite era on Oct. 7, with just nine named storms all season, while the eastern and central Pacific set records for large, long-lasting storms. NOAA's winter outlook points to a wetter southern US and a milder north, with flooding risks from California to Florida.

Why it matters

A stronger El Niño brings a wetter southern US, milder north, swings in heating and crop costs, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes this fall.

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Key Indicators

83%
Odds of strong-to-very strong event through winter
NOAA's October 8 advisory puts a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January-March 2027 at over 83 percent.
83%
Odds of historic event, Oct-Dec
Chance the event exceeds the strongest El Niños since 1950, per NOAA's October advisory.
+4.0°C
Peak sea-surface anomaly
Sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific in October.
2.3°C
Niño-3.4 weekly anomaly
Niño-3.4 region running 2.3°C above normal in mid-October, above the 2.0°C 'very strong' threshold.
Since 1950
Record window
A historic event would rank among the largest in NOAA's modern record.

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People Involved

ML
Michelle L'Heureux
Lead of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation team, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Leading NOAA's ENSO forecasting through a record-strength event
 Celeste Saulo
Celeste Saulo
Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
Issued WMO's June 2026 El Niño bulletin urging global preparation

Organizations Involved

NOAA Climate Prediction Center
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Federal Agency Division
Issued October advisory confirming a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January-March 2027

The NOAA division that monitors El Niño and issues US seasonal climate outlooks.
World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization
UN agency
Issued 'Prepare for El Niño' bulletin in June 2026, calling for global early warning action

The United Nations agency that coordinates global weather, climate, and water monitoring across 193 member states.

Timeline

March 2026 October 2026

10 events Latest: October 8th, 2026 · 1 month ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. NOAA advisory: strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through March 2027

    Latest Forecast

    NOAA's October advisory reported sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 at greater than 83 percent. Chances of a historic event exceeding records since 1950 reached 83 percent for October-December.

  2. Isaias becomes latest first Atlantic hurricane in satellite era

    Hurricane Season

    The Atlantic saw its first hurricane of the season on Oct. 7 when Isaias reached hurricane strength, the latest first hurricane in the satellite era (1966 to present). El Niño's wind shear has suppressed Atlantic storm formation.

  3. NOAA scales back El Niño research amid record event

    Research

    NPR reported that during the last strong El Niño, federal agencies ramped up research to improve forecasts, but this year they are not matching that effort. The cutback comes as the current super El Niño already influences extreme weather globally.

  4. El Niño passes record temperature anomaly months before peak

    Measurement

    The current El Niño surpassed the highest Pacific temperature anomaly recorded in the modern era, reaching 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 average months before its expected peak, according to data cited by The Guardian.

  5. NOAA: more than 90% risk of very strong El Niño

    Forecast

    The US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño was strengthening with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, and a 69 percent chance of a historic event for October-December.

  6. WMO issues 'Prepare for El Niño' bulletin, calls for global action

    International Response

    The World Meteorological Organization launched its June–August 2026 El Niño bulletin, giving an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions through August. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged all countries to strengthen early warning systems, warning the event could worsen droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves on land and in the ocean.

  7. NOAA declares El Niño has arrived

    Declaration

    After five straight months of above-threshold warming, NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory. It raised the odds of a very strong winter event to 63 percent.

  8. May outlook keeps very-strong odds modest

    Forecast

    NOAA's May update put the chance of a very strong winter event near one in three.

  9. NOAA issues an El Niño Watch

    Forecast

    Forecasters flagged warming Pacific waters and said El Niño was likely to form within months.

  10. Pacific returns to neutral

    Background

    Weak La Niña conditions faded, leaving the tropical Pacific near its long-term average and primed to warm.

Scenarios

1

El Niño peaks as a 'very strong' event this winter

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Columbia Climate School

Pacific warming keeps building through fall and crosses the 2.0°C mark for a three-month season. NOAA's models already favor this path, and a strong coupling between ocean and atmosphere would lock it in. This is the headline outcome forecasters are bracing for.

2

Event tops out at moderate strength

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

El Niño forms and persists but stalls below the very strong line, peaking in the moderate range. Forecast models often overstate intensity months out, and Pacific warming can plateau. Winter impacts would still be real but less extreme than a record-class event.

3

2026 set as warmest year on record

Uncertain Resolves by Feb 28, 2027

Discussed by: NASA, Copernicus Climate Change Service

Strong El Niño years tend to spike global average temperatures, as 2015-16 and 2023 showed. If the event strengthens on schedule, the added Pacific heat could push 2026 past prior annual records. Agencies confirm the ranking in early-2027 reports.

4

Wet winter soaks the southern US

Likely Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

Discussed by: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

El Niño typically steers the jet stream to deliver more rain across the southern tier, from California to the Gulf Coast and Florida. A strong event raises the odds of flooding and full reservoirs there, while the northern US trends warmer and drier. NOAA's winter outlook tracks how it plays out.

5

Atlantic hurricane season ends far below average

Likely Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: NOAA, Colorado State University, Yale Climate Connections

El Niño increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, disrupting storm formation. NOAA's May forecast called for 8 to 14 named storms against a long-term average of 14. Colorado State University's June 10 update dropped its estimate to 11 storms. If El Niño strengthens as forecast, the season could end roughly 40 percent below average.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

May 1997 – April 1998

1997–98 El Niño

One of the strongest El Niños ever recorded brought floods to California and Peru, drought and fires to Indonesia, and a record run of Pacific super typhoons. Pacific waters ran more than 2°C above average for months.

Then

Floods, fires, and storms killed thousands and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage worldwide.

Now

It became the benchmark scientists use to define a very strong event and reshaped how agencies forecast and prepare for ENSO.

Why this matters now

NOAA's 2026 forecast points to an event that could rival 1997-98 in raw ocean warmth, the closest modern yardstick.

March 2015 – May 2016

2015–16 El Niño

A very strong El Niño coincided with a sharp jump in global temperatures, making 2015 and then 2016 the warmest years on record at the time. It drove drought in southern Africa, flooding in South America, and a busy Pacific cyclone season.

Then

Tens of millions faced food and water shortages; coral reefs bleached worldwide.

Now

It showed how a strong El Niño can stack on top of background warming to break heat records.

Why this matters now

It is the most recent very strong event and the clearest preview of the global heat a strong 2026 El Niño could bring.

June 1982 – August 1983

1982–83 El Niño

A very strong El Niño caught forecasters off guard, with limited ocean monitoring at the time. It brought severe drought to Australia and flooding to the Americas, and devastated Peru's anchovy fishery.

Then

Worldwide damage ran into the billions, with major losses in farming and fishing.

Now

The surprise spurred build-out of the Pacific buoy network that now underpins El Niño forecasts.

Why this matters now

It shows why early advisories like this one matter: the monitoring NOAA now relies on grew out of being blindsided in 1982.

Sources

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+9
NOAA The Washington Post The Boston Globe Columbia Climate School NOAA Climate Prediction Center World Meteorological Organization UN News Yale Climate Connections The Weather Channel CBS News Reuters UC Santa Barbara Current World Meteorological Organization NOAA Climate Prediction Center The Washington Post