NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Built World

Issued October advisory confirming a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January-March 2027

NOAA declared El Niño on June 11, and the event has since blown past forecasters' early estimates. By October, Pacific sea-surface temperatures exceeded 4.0°C above average in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and NOAA put a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January-March 2027 at greater than 83 percent. The chance the event tops the strongest on record since 1950 reached 83 percent for October-December.

Updated Oct 16

Built World

As of May 2026: Issuing the 2026 El Niño outlooks

Satellites tracked 150 million hectares of burned land globally in the first four months of 2026. That is roughly the size of Alaska, and about double the historical average for January through April.

Updated May 12