1
Nuisance bill passes, signed into law
Likely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Tenant advocacy groups (Anti-Displacement Coalition, Asian Law Caucus) and supporters on the Board
The Board of Supervisors passes the bill and Mayor Daniel Lurie signs it. Eviction notices citing nuisance drop as the definition tightens, and cases like Yan's—where no tenant complained and no damage was proven—no longer qualify. Landlord groups have said they support the broad intent, reducing the odds of a veto.
2
Bill passes with weakened provisions after landlord pushback
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Coalition for Better Housing and landlord attorneys
Amendments narrow the bill's scope, perhaps preserving some landlord-friendly language or easing the 'recurring and continuing' requirement. Final law requires nuisance to be severe or continuing, but retains some room for landlord discretion. Nuisance evictions continue at a moderately elevated pace.
3
Bill stalls in committee, fails to advance
Unlikely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Landlord attorney Dave Wasserman and observers on both sides
The bill fails to get out of committee before the legislative session ends, either due to procedural delays or insufficient votes. Fielder's rent-arrears bill faces a similar fate. The policy question is deferred, and nuisance eviction notices continue at their current elevated rate without a statutory fix.
4
Law passed, then challenged in court by landlord groups
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2028
Discussed by: Coalition for Better Housing and small property owner associations
After passage, a landlord association files suit, echoing the 2022 challenge to SF's 10-day warning ordinance. A court imposes a temporary stay while the case proceeds. The law's fate ties to the court's ruling, and enforcement is paused in the interim.
5
Rent-arrears bill passes full Board
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Tenant advocates and supporters on the Board
Fielder's bill barring evictions over less than a month's back rent passes the full Board after clearing the Land Use and Transportation Committee. The measure uses HUD Fair Market Rent as the threshold, protecting tenants who owe small amounts.