A farmer's call from a lane near RAF Fairford at 1:36 am on September 27 led police to five British men in vans carrying petrol. Police found no explosives. Eight men have since been arrested; two were charged under the National Security Act on October 27, and one of them, Nouman Essghir, 24, is in custody awaiting a November 20 hearing at the Old Bailey.
On November 10, US prosecutors in New York charged three men with directing the Fairford plot for Iran, saying one coordinated from jail through coded calls to his mother and sister. The indictment says the men paid for reconnaissance of the base in August and arranged vans disguised as fuel trucks in September. The UK says Iran's Revolutionary Guard almost certainly directed the plan; Iran denies it.
Why it matters
The UK has formally accused Iran of directing a plot on British soil, bringing the 2026 Iran war to UK territory.
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Key Indicators
8
Men arrested in UK investigation
Eight men have been arrested; two charged under the National Security Act.
2
Men charged in UK
Nouman Essghir is remanded in custody; Mohmed Abdulkarim is on bail. Next hearing at the Old Bailey on November 20.
3
Men charged in US
US prosecutors unsealed an eight-count indictment on November 10 over the Fairford plot and London synagogue attacks.
2
Iranian nationals sanctioned by UK
Sanctioned October 12 over alleged hostile activity for Iran.
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November 2026
US charges three men over Fairford plot
LatestLegal
The US Justice Department unsealed an eight-count indictment against Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, Mohsen Mohajeri and Mohammed Ali al-Hassani. Prosecutors say they directed the Fairford plot for Iran and also orchestrated attacks on Jewish sites in London. Al-Saadi, in a New York jail since May, allegedly passed coded instructions through his mother and sister.
US reroutes aircraft from RAF Mildenhall over Iran threat
Security
Two US refuelling aircraft were sent from RAF Mildenhall to Germany, followed by several others, according to UPI. It was the second time in a little more than a month that aircraft were moved from a British base because of a threat from Iran.
October 2026
Two men charged under National Security Act
Legal
Nouman Essghir, 24, was charged with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the UK. Mohmed Abdulkarim, 24, was charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service. Essghir was remanded in custody; Abdulkarim was granted bail with conditions including surrendering his passport.
Two men re-arrested on suspicion of assisting Iran
Arrest
Counter Terrorism Policing re-arrested a 24-year-old UK national and a 25-year-old UK-Iranian dual national under Section 3 of the National Security Act 2023. Police said the investigation relates to Iran.
UK blames Iran for airbase plot, sanctions two Iranian nationals
Diplomacy
The UK government formally accused Iran of coordinating the plot and sanctioned two Iranian nationals. Iran's ambassador was summoned.
All seven suspects bailed; no explosives found
Legal
Counter-terror police confirmed the 22-year-old was released on bail and that seven men, all in their 20s, remain under investigation. No improvised explosives were found in the vehicles, but a quantity of petrol was recovered. Scenes around the base are being closed down.
Seventh man arrested in Westminster
Arrest
A 22-year-old British national was detained in the Borough of Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
US bombers withdrawn from RAF Fairford
Security
The US Air Force flew its B-1 and B-52 bombers home from RAF Fairford, citing the terror investigation.
Sixth suspect released on bail
Legal
The 25-year-old was freed on bail with strict conditions; police said searches of two London properties had concluded.
Sixth man arrested in London
Arrest
A 25-year-old UK-Iranian dual national was detained in the London borough of Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts under the Terrorism Act.
September 2026
Investigation continues as suspects stay under conditions
Statement
NPR's morning brief reports the developing story; police say suspects remain under investigation with restrictions on movement and contact.
Five men released on bail; Trump criticizes
Legal
Counter-terror police release all five with stringent bail conditions; Trump says he is 'surprised.' Iran denies involvement.
Farmer spots vans blocking road near RAF Fairford
Incident
A farmer finds three white vans parked in a fan shape near the base; calls police at 1:36 am.
Armed officers arrest five men 300 metres from base
Arrest
Officers detain five UK nationals from London, first under the Explosives Act, then on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act.
85 homes evacuated; bomb squad examines vans
Security
Residents of Whelford ordered out; army bomb-disposal experts use a robot to inspect three white vans. 8km no-fly zone imposed.
First 999 call came from a man later arrested
Disclosure
The BBC later learned one of the five men arrested that morning made the first call to police, about an hour before the farmer's, reporting vehicles travelling toward the base.
March 2026
UK allows US use of bases for defensive operations
Policy
Prime Minister Keir Starmer agrees to let US forces use British bases for 'defensive' strikes on Iranian missiles and launch sites.
February 2026
US-Israeli war on Iran begins
Conflict
The United States and Israel open military action against Iran; Britain does not join.
Scenarios
1
Iran link confirmed, terror charges filed
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Counter Terrorism Policing named Iran as one possible line of inquiry; AFP reported the possibility of proxies working for a foreign state.
Investigators trace the vans and any materials to Iranian actors or proxies, and prosecutors bring terrorism charges against at least one man. This would mark the first confirmed state-backed plot against a US base in Britain during the 2026 Iran war. Police have stressed Iran is only one possibility, not a conclusion.
2
Explosives charges only, no state link
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Police have said they have not concluded whether the incident was state-backed.
Police find that any chemical material found was not connected to a broader plot or foreign state. The men face charges under the Explosives Act but not terrorism offences, and the foreign-state hypothesis fades out of the public record.
3
No charges; case closes as a security scare
Unlikely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: The Australian Financial Review raised the possibility of a hoax; police have not ruled out non-state actors.
With insufficient evidence to charge anyone, police lift the bail conditions and close the investigation without charges. The incident would be recorded as a security scare involving suspicious behaviour near a sensitive base, rather than a foiled plot.
4
US keeps bombers out of Britain for the rest of the war
Uncertain
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: AP and Al Jazeera, reporting the October 5 withdrawal
The Pentagon flew its B-1 and B-52 bombers home from RAF Fairford on October 4, citing the terror investigation. Whether they return depends on the police outcome: charges could keep them away, while a cleared account could see them back quickly.
5
UK sanctions escalate into broader diplomatic confrontation
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: UK government statements, Al Jazeera
The UK's formal accusation and sanctions could lead to further diplomatic measures, including expulsion of diplomats or additional sanctions. Iran has denied involvement and offered to assist in the investigation.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
August 2006
2006 transatlantic aircraft plot
British police arrested 24 people in London and Birmingham accused of plotting to smuggle liquid explosives onto transatlantic flights and detonate them mid-air. The operation, run with US intelligence, disrupted what could have killed thousands.
Then
The global liquids ban on hand luggage followed within days; trials ran for years.
Now
Aviation security standards tightened permanently across Western airports.
Why this matters now
Like the RAF Fairford case, it was a major UK counter-terror operation during a period of Middle East conflict, and the evidence did not match initial public alarm.
2 of 2
October 2011
2011 alleged Iran-linked assassination plot
The US Justice Department charged two men, including an Iranian-American with ties to Iran's Quds Force, with plotting to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington. The plan allegedly involved hiring a Mexican drug cartel to bomb a restaurant.
Then
Iran denied involvement; one suspect was sentenced to 25 years in 2013, another remained in Iran and never stood trial.
Now
The case became a reference point for US accusations of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism on Western soil.
Why this matters now
It parallels the current case's core question: whether a foreign state directed a violent plot inside a Western country during heightened tensions with Iran.
