Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs opened a second round of coalition talks on November 9 with the National Alliance, New Unity and the Progressives. The new Saeima held its first session this month, but no governing majority is in place. Kulbergs says he hopes to present a cabinet model by mid-November; President Edgars Rinkēvičs wants a government by November 18.
The National Alliance said on November 8 it can work with New Unity if Kulbergs chooses, but rules out the Progressives and Latvia First. United List MPs have stopped ruling out Latvia First, though Kulbergs said before the election he would not work with the party. The first round was overshadowed by a European Public Prosecutor's Office case involving Kulbergs's former adviser Mārtiņš Brencis, who was detained in a fraud investigation into EU funds in Alūksne municipality.
Why it matters
Latvia's government shapes NATO's response to Russian drone and hybrid threats along an alliance border where incursions are already routine.
Questions about this story
Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.
No questions yet — be the first to ask.
Key Indicators
41
Seats won by United List in the 100-seat Saeima
Largest force in the new Saeima.
35.3%
United List vote share
Final vote share in the October 3 election.
5%
Threshold for Saeima representation
Parties must clear 5% nationally to win parliamentary seats.
4.4%
Union of Greens and Farmers result
Former coalition partner fell below the threshold and lost its seats.
4
NATO Eurofighter jets deployed to Latvia
German aircraft reinforced Baltic air policing for the election period.
58
Seats in prospective three-party coalition
United List (41), National Alliance (10), and New Unity (7) would hold 58 of 100 seats.
5%
Defense and security spending requirement
Share of GDP Kulbergs requires coalition partners to keep spending on defense and security; the current policy, reaffirmed by the president.
51
Seats in a two-party coalition
United List (41) and National Alliance (10) would hold exactly 51 of 100 seats, a bare majority.
25 events
Latest: 2 days ago
Showing 8 of 25
JK to step
Tap a bar to jump to that date
Jump to
November 2026
Kulbergs Opens Second Round of Talks
LatestPolitical
Kulbergs met the Progressives, New Unity and the National Alliance. He said he wants to discuss economic growth, budget savings and a more efficient government, and hopes to present a cabinet model by mid-November.
Kulbergs Praises National Alliance After Talks
Political
Kulbergs said the National Alliance came to talks well prepared with proposals on the economy and priorities. He said a third round of talks would likely come after Latvia's national holiday.
National Alliance Sets Coalition Conditions
Political
The National Alliance said it can cooperate with New Unity if Kulbergs decides, but ruled out the Progressives and Latvia First, citing ideological differences.
United List MPs Soften on Latvia First
Political
United List MPs stopped ruling out Latvia First's participation in the next government, despite Kulbergs saying before the election he would not work with the party. They left the coalition decision to Kulbergs.
New Saeima Holds First Session
Political
The newly elected 15th Saeima held its first session. Coalition talks were still unresolved, and United List MPs said they trusted Kulbergs to decide the government's composition.
October 2026
First Coalition Talks Held With National Alliance and New Unity
Political
United List opened formal coalition talks in Riga with the National Alliance and New Unity. After the National Alliance meeting, Kulbergs said the party met the conditions to join, and the parties agreed to meet again.
Kulbergs's Adviser Detained
Legal
Law enforcement detained Mārtiņš Brencis, Kulbergs's public administration adviser and a newly elected United List MP. LSM's De facto later reported that the European Public Prosecutor's Office began criminal proceedings after obtaining a recording of a phone call Brencis made while working at the Central Finance and Contracting Agency; he was temporarily detained in an investigation into suspected fraud involving EU funds in Alūksne municipality.
Kulbergs Dismisses Adviser Brencis
Political
Kulbergs said he learned of the detention that morning and dismissed Brencis as his adviser. Reports say the party may ask him to give up his parliamentary mandate.
Kulbergs Gathers United List MPs Outside Riga
Political
Kulbergs met United List members elected to the Saeima at an undisclosed location outside Riga to discuss his reform plan. Formal talks with other parties were set to follow on October 28. Reports do not yet describe the meeting's outcome.
Kulbergs to Brief Own Deputies Before Coalition Talks
Political
Kulbergs said he would meet all United List deputies elected to the 15th Saeima on October 26 to secure their backing for his change plan before official talks with other parties start October 28. He said the plan covers fiscal discipline, cutting bureaucracy and government spending, and economic growth.
Kulbergs Takes Leave Abroad, Delaying Meetings
Political
Kulbergs was abroad on leave from October 21 to 23, so previously scheduled government-formation meetings were postponed. He said talks would resume the following week.
Kulbergs Sets October 28 Coalition Talks
Political
Kulbergs said talks with the National Alliance would begin at 1 p.m. on October 28, followed by New Unity at 3 p.m. United List also plans to meet the other parties elected to the Saeima.
CEC Confirms Election Results
Election Result
Latvia's Central Election Commission confirmed the official results of the 15th Saeima election. United List holds 41 seats, Latvia First 17, Sovereign Power/Alliance of Young Latvians 15, National Alliance and Progressives 10 each, New Unity 7. Turnout was 51.79% (about 807,000 votes).
Unity Party Leadership Resigns
Political
The entire leadership of the Unity party (Vienotība), part of the New Unity alliance, resigned after the election result. New leadership will be elected at a party congress on November 28.
Kulbergs Delays Coalition Talks to Draft Declaration
Political
Kulbergs said he will not start active coalition talks this week while focusing on EU budget negotiations. He plans to publish a meeting schedule with parliamentary factions on October 19, after presenting his draft government declaration.
Kulbergs Drafting Government Declaration; New Unity Ready to Join Talks
Political
Kulbergs said the draft declaration is being prepared for review by potential partners, urging unhurried talks. New Unity parliamentary group leader Edmunds Jurēvics said his party will join consultations once invited. BB.LV, citing unofficial information, reports the declaration opens with security: 5% of GDP on defense, continued Ukraine aid, and border infrastructure.
Levits Suggests United List Become Single Party
Political
Former President Egils Levits said Latvia should not rush coalition talks and suggested United List merge into one party. He called a three-party coalition with National Alliance and New Unity the most stable option.
Coalition talks pause as Kulbergs consults United List
Political
Kulbergs paused coalition negotiations to consult his own party first. BB.LV, citing party sources, reported some United List activists worry that adding New Unity to the coalition would unsettle voters who chose the party over its rival.
Kulbergs sets coalition partner conditions
Political
Kulbergs told journalists at Riga Castle that coalition partners must keep the pro-Ukraine course, hold defense spending at 5% of GDP, and commit to a full four-year term. The comments followed a meeting with President Rinkēvičs.
President tasks Kulbergs with forming government
Political
President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form the next government after consultations with all six parties elected to the Saeima.
United List wins 41 seats
Election Result
Final tally: United List 35.3%, 41 seats; Union of Greens and Farmers missed the 5% threshold.
Latvians vote for new Saeima
Election
Voters elected 100 Saeima seats amid drone incursions and hybrid warfare during the Russia-Ukraine war.
September 2026
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania
Security
NATO fighter downed a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus into Lithuanian airspace.
June 2026
Intelligence warns of hybrid threats
Security
Latvian intelligence warned Moscow may test Poland and the Baltics with hybrid attacks or drone incursions.
May 2026
Latvian coalition collapses over drone handling
Political
Governing coalition fell after Ukrainian drone incursions went undetected; Kulbergs became prime minister.
Scenarios
1
Kulbergs forms stable pro-Ukraine coalition before December
United List has 41 seats and needs a partner to reach 51. The nationalist National Alliance and the liberal Progressives are the leading candidates. A Kulbergs-led government would keep Latvia on its pro-Ukraine course, with defense spending moving toward 5% of GDP.
2
Coalition talks stall, yielding a weak minority or snap election
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Eastflank analysts, Politico
The Progressives' agenda on human rights and minority rights is controversial among conservative coalition partners. If negotiations drag on or fail, Latvia could face a minority government or a fresh election, creating uncertainty about defense continuity during a tense security period.
3
Russian hybrid escalation disrupts the transition
Unlikely
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: Latvian State Security Service, Western intelligence officials
Latvian intelligence warned in June that Moscow may test Poland and the Baltics with hybrid attacks or drone incursions. A significant incident during coalition talks could reshape political calculations and force a harder security posture than planned.
4
Kulbergs forms three-party coalition with National Alliance and New Unity
Likely
Resolves by Nov 18, 2026
Discussed by: LSM, Politico, Reuters
United List (41 seats) is expected to form a coalition with the National Alliance (10) and New Unity (7), giving a 58-seat majority. Kulbergs has ruled out Latvia First. The new Saeima convenes November 3, and the president wants a cabinet by November 18.
5
Kulbergs drops New Unity for a slimmer two-party government
Deadline passed (Nov 3, 2026)
Discussed by: BB.LV party sources, FEPS coalition arithmetic
United List factions worry that adding New Unity would unsettle voters who chose the party over its rival. If Kulbergs yields to them, he could govern with the National Alliance alone, giving exactly 51 of 100 seats. A United List-Progressives pairing would also have 51 seats, but the National Alliance has ruled out governing with the Progressives.
6
United List consolidates into a single party
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: Former President Egils Levits
Levits suggested United List, an alliance that includes the Latvian Green Party, merge into one party to make the government's four-year term more coherent.
7
United List and National Alliance form a 51-seat government
Possible
Resolves by Nov 18, 2026
Discussed by: BB.LV, United List MPs
United List (41 seats) and the National Alliance (10) would hold exactly 51 of 100 seats. BB.LV reported that Kulbergs and a significant part of his associates were considering a two-party government and leaving New Unity in opposition. The National Alliance has ruled out governing with the Progressives and Latvia First.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
March 2004
Baltic states join NATO (2004)
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004, two years after the alliance's Prague summit invited them. The accession placed the three former Soviet republics under the collective defense umbrella, with U.S. and European troops rotating through their territory.
Then
The Baltics gained formal security guarantees from the alliance, ending their post-Soviet security vacuum.
Now
NATO membership became the framework for all subsequent Baltic defense decisions, including the enhanced forward presence established after 2014 and the air-policing mission flown during the 2026 election.
Why this matters now
NATO's reinforcement of Latvian airspace during the October 2026 vote is a direct expression of the same commitment made in 2004 — the alliance's eastern flank is defended as its own territory.
2 of 3
February-March 2014
Russia annexes Crimea (2014)
Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, seizing territory by force and igniting a war that continues today. The annexation was the first forcible redrawing of European borders since World War II.
Then
NATO responded by establishing an enhanced forward presence with battalion-size battle groups in the Baltics and Poland.
Now
Baltic states raised defense spending and hardened their posture toward Moscow. The threat perception shaped in 2014 governs how Latvia approaches the 2026 security environment.
Why this matters now
The 2014 annexation set the security template that dominates Latvia's 2026 election: a NATO eastern flank facing an assertive Russia, with hybrid tactics layered on top of conventional threats.
3 of 3
May 2022
Finland and Sweden seek NATO membership (2022)
Days after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden abandoned decades of neutrality and applied to join NATO. Finland joined in April 2023; Sweden followed in March 2024.
Then
The alliance's border with Russia roughly doubled, extending NATO's eastern flank into the Arctic.
Now
The invasion reset European security thinking, with countries across the continent raising defense budgets and reassessing their relationship with Moscow.
Why this matters now
Russia's 2022 invasion hardened Latvia's pro-Ukraine stance and made security the defining issue of the 2026 election — the same fear that pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO drove Latvians to vote with drones in their airspace.
