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Kazakhstan's economy grows 4.2% as oil output falls 8.3%

Kazakhstan's economy grows 4.2% as oil output falls 8.3%

Money Moves

Non-oil sectors drive growth as GDP per capita passes $15,000 and the central bank cuts its base rate

October 28th, 2026: Tokayev proposes higher taxes on the wealthy

Overview

Updated Oct 30

Kazakhstan's economy grew 4.2% in the first nine months of 2026 while oil output fell 8.3%. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told a Republic Day ceremony on October 23 that GDP is approaching $350 billion and output per person has passed $15,000, roughly 30% higher than in 2019.

The National Bank cut its base rate to 15.75% from 16.25% on October 23. Small and medium-sized firms now produce 40% of GDP, and Tokayev has proposed higher taxes on the wealthy while the government drafts a new tax code. The minimum wage rises to 110,000 tenge in 2027.

Why it matters

If Kazakhstan keeps growing while oil falls, other resource-dependent economies get a working model for diversification.

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Key Indicators

4.2%
GDP growth, January-September 2026
Economy grew despite an 8.3% decline in oil output. Growth was 4.1% through August, accelerating slightly by September.
-8.3%
Oil output change, year-on-year
Production fell to 69.4 million tonnes in nine months.
69.4M tonnes
Oil production, January-September 2026
Down 6.3 million tonnes from the same period last year.
5.4%
Non-resource sector growth, January-September 2026
Non-oil sector expansion that drove overall GDP growth.
7.8%
Oil sector share of GDP, 2025
Down from higher levels as diversification accelerated.
14.1%
Manufacturing share of GDP, H1 2026
Up from 2025, now nearly double oil's share of the economy.
$15,000
GDP per capita
Tokayev said GDP per person passed $15,000, in remarks on October 23.
15.75%
National Bank base rate
Cut from 16.25% on October 23, 2026.

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People Involved

Serik Zhumangarin
Serik Zhumangarin
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy
Presented nine-month economic results at October 13 government meeting
 Olzhas Bektenov
Olzhas Bektenov
Prime Minister of Kazakhstan
Chaired the October 13 government meeting
YA
Yerlan Akbarov
Vice Minister of Energy
Presented oil production data at October 13 government meeting
 Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
President of Kazakhstan
Said on October 23 that GDP is approaching $350 billion and proposed higher taxes on the wealthy on October 28

Organizations Involved

Government of Kazakhstan
Government of Kazakhstan
National government
Implementing economic diversification strategy

The government of Kazakhstan, which has been working to reduce the economy's dependence on oil exports.
Ministry of Energy
Ministry of Energy
Government ministry
Managing oil production and OPEC+ compliance

The ministry oversees oil and gas production, including compliance with OPEC+ quotas.
OPEC+
OPEC+
Oil producer alliance
Kazakhstan is a member with production quotas

The OPEC+ alliance, which sets production quotas for member countries including Kazakhstan.

Timeline

2025 October 2026

10 events Latest: October 28th, 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Tokayev proposes higher taxes on the wealthy

    Latest Fiscal Policy

    The president proposed higher taxes for high earners as the government works on a new tax code with revised exemptions.

  2. Minimum wage set to rise to 110,000 tenge in 2027

    Fiscal Policy

    Kazakhstan will raise its minimum wage to 110,000 tenge next year.

  3. Kazakhstan and China discuss Shymkent refinery expansion

    Energy

    The two sides discussed oil supplies and expanding the Shymkent oil refinery.

  4. Tokayev says GDP approaching $350 billion

    Economic Report

    At a Republic Day ceremony, the president said GDP per capita has passed $15,000 and the economy has grown about 30% since 2019. He put small and medium-sized businesses at 40% of GDP and said $2.5 billion had been transferred to accounts for seven million children.

  5. National Bank cuts base rate to 15.75%

    Monetary Policy

    The National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate from 16.25% to 15.75%.

  6. Shymkent investment roundtable signs $4.8 billion in agreements

    Investment

    Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov took part in the 9th Kazakhstan Global Investment Roundtable in Shymkent, where 22 agreements worth $4.8 billion were signed.

  7. Government reports 4.2% GDP growth despite 8.3% oil decline

    Economic Report

    Deputy PM Zhumangarin reports 4.2% GDP growth for January-September, with non-oil sectors driving expansion.

  8. Minister names three factors constraining growth

    Economic Report

    Zhumangarin says oil production decline, a stronger tenge, and slower consumer lending are limiting growth. The non-resource sector grew 5.4%, and consumer lending growth slowed from 26.4% in August 2025 to 10.4% in August 2026.

  9. Oil production recovers, exceeding OPEC+ quota

    Production Data

    Monthly oil and gas condensate production rises to 8.5 million tonnes from 7.6 million in July, exceeding the OPEC+ quota by 282,000 barrels per day.

  10. Oil's share of GDP falls to 7.8%

    Structural Shift

    Economic diversification reduces oil's share of GDP to 7.8% by end-2025. Manufacturing's share later reaches 14.1% in the first half of 2026.

Scenarios

1

Kazakhstan's diversification deepens as oil share falls below 7%

Likely Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: Government officials including Deputy PM Zhumangarin

The non-oil sector continues to drive growth. Manufacturing, construction, and services expand as private investment flows into these sectors. Oil's share of GDP continues to fall, and the economy becomes less vulnerable to oil price swings.

2

Oil output rebounds, OPEC+ tensions resurface

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: International Energy Agency, OPEC+ monitoring committee

Kazakhstan's oil production recovers as maintenance is completed and fields return to full capacity. The country again exceeds its OPEC+ quota, creating tensions within the alliance and potentially triggering compensation demands.

3

Growth stalls as oil decline bites

Unlikely Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: Economic analysts monitoring Central Asian economies

The oil decline eventually drags down the broader economy. Government revenues fall, budget spending is cut, and the non-oil sector cannot fully compensate for the loss of oil export earnings.

4

Parliament adopts Tokayev's higher taxes on the wealthy

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the government drafting the new tax code

Tokayev proposed raising taxes on high earners on October 28. The change would have to pass parliament as part of the new tax code. If it does, the revenue could pay for social spending without leaning harder on oil earnings.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

April 2016 - present

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 (2016-present)

Saudi Arabia launched Vision 2030 in April 2016 to reduce its dependence on oil. The plan aimed to grow non-oil revenue, expand the private sector, and diversify the economy beyond hydrocarbons.

Then

The program has had mixed results, with non-oil GDP growing but oil still dominating exports and government revenue.

Now

Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector now accounts for about half of GDP, though oil revenues still fund most government spending.

Why this matters now

Like Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer trying to diversify. Kazakhstan's progress shows a similar strategy can work, at least in the short term.

June 2014 - January 2016

The 2014-2016 oil price collapse

Oil prices fell from over $100 per barrel in mid-2014 to below $30 in early 2016. Oil-dependent economies like Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria suffered severe recessions, currency crashes, and budget crises.

Then

Venezuela's economy collapsed, Russia entered a two-year recession, and Nigeria's currency was devalued.

Now

The collapse exposed the vulnerability of undiversified oil economies and pushed several to accelerate diversification efforts.

Why this matters now

Kazakhstan's current growth despite an oil decline suggests it has learned from the 2014-2016 experience. The question is whether the diversification is durable.

Sources

(16)
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Investing.com Kazakhstan Today Prime Minister of Kazakhstan The Astana Times Applied Economics Research Centre Qazinform Newsquawk Kazinform 24KZ Bureau of National Statistics Interfax-Kazakhstan Kursiv The Economic Times Qazinform Kursiv Media Kazakhstan Today