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Argentina swings to current account surplus on record exports

Argentina swings to current account surplus on record exports

Money Moves

Q2 current account flipped to a $2.21 billion surplus on record exports; the central bank has bought over $16 billion in 2026, though reserves slipped below $50 billion after an IMF payment

6 days ago: Reserves dip below $50 billion on IMF payment

Overview

Updated 6 days ago

Argentina's current account swung from a $2.45 billion deficit to a $2.21 billion surplus in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a record export haul. The central bank has bought more than $16 billion in the foreign exchange market this year, over 60% above the $10 billion target in its IMF program. Gross reserves slipped back below $50 billion on November 5 after an $880 million payment to the IMF.

The first nine months of 2026 posted a $12.64 billion current account surplus, $4.56 billion better than a year earlier. Most of that gain came from falling manufacturing imports rather than exports alone, according to Analytica economist Federico Kisza. The IMF's staff approved the third review of the program in late October; the executive board is expected to consider it in early December, which would unlock about $900 million.

Why it matters

Record exports and a rare surplus let Argentina defend the peso and rebuild reserves, easing pressure on interest rates and inflation targets.

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Key Indicators

$2.21B
Q2 2026 current account surplus
Reverses a $2.45 billion deficit from the same quarter of 2025.
$32.5B
Goods and services exports, Q2 2026
Up 28.2% year over year, a record for the quarter.
$12.64B
Current account surplus, first nine months of 2026
Up $4.56 billion from the same period of 2025, mostly on lower manufacturing imports.
$327.9B
Gross external debt at face value, June 30
Up $4.7 billion from March; the government holds 55.2% of it.
$49.6B
Gross reserves, November 5
Fell below $50 billion after an $880 million payment to the IMF.
$16.0B
BCRA dollar purchases in 2026
Over 60% above the $10 billion annual target agreed with the IMF.

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People Involved

Luis Caputo
Luis Caputo
Economy Minister
Announced September's financial surplus; IMF staff approved the third review in late October, with the executive board expected to consider it in early December
 Javier Milei
Javier Milei
President of Argentina
In office since December 2023

Organizations Involved

INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Censuses)
INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Censuses)
National statistics office
Publishes Argentina's official balance of payments data

Argentina's official statistics agency, which reports balance of payments and other economic data.
YPF
YPF
State-controlled energy company
Developing Vaca Muerta shale; seeking LNG export financing

Argentina's largest energy company, controlled by the state, developing oil and gas in the Vaca Muerta shale formation.
BC
Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)
Central bank
Bought more than $16 billion in 2026, over 60% above the IMF target; gross reserves fell below $50 billion on November 5 after an $880 million IMF payment

Argentina's central bank, led by Santiago Bausili.

Timeline

December 2023 November 2026

11 events Latest: 6 days ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Reserves dip below $50 billion on IMF payment

    Latest Economic data

    Gross reserves closed at $49.642 billion after an $880 million payment to the IMF. The BCRA had bought $42 million that day, taking 2026 purchases to $16.015 billion, more than 60% above the $10 billion IMF target.

  2. Central bank pauses dollar purchases in November

    Economic data

    The BCRA made no dollar purchases in the first two trading days of November as demand for foreign currency rose. Gross reserves still climbed $879 million to $50.441 billion on valuation gains.

  3. BCRA projects another current account surplus in Q3

    Economic data

    In its third-quarter monetary policy report, the BCRA said export volumes hit an all-time high and estimated another current account surplus for the quarter. It reported a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q3 and said the 2027 budget bill projects a financial surplus.

  4. Central bank reserves climb back above $50 billion

    Economic data

    The BCRA bought $983 million in October by October 16, its best week since July. Gross reserves closed at $50.24 billion, with 2026 purchases at $15.5 billion against the $10 billion IMF target.

  5. Knowledge-based service exports hit a record

    Economic data

    Business and knowledge service exports rose 18% in Q2 to a record, making them Argentina's third-largest export complex behind agriculture and energy.

  6. September posts financial surplus, closing on IMF target

    Economic data

    The national public sector logged a primary surplus of ARS$1.43 trillion and a financial surplus of ARS$977 billion in September. The accumulated primary surplus reached 1.2% of GDP against a 1.4% target for 2026.

  7. IMF staff approves third review

    International

    IMF staff approved the third review of Argentina's program, citing falling inflation and rising reserves. The executive board is expected to take it up in early December, which would release about $900 million.

  8. INDEC reports Q2 surplus

    Economic data release

    Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos posts a $2.21 billion current account surplus, reversing a $2.45 billion year-earlier deficit.

  9. Q2 sees record export quarter

    Economic data

    Goods exports rise $6.5 billion year over year to $27.6 billion; imports slip slightly.

  10. First quarter ends in deficit

    Economic data

    Argentina's current account posts a $2.41 billion deficit in Q1 2026.

  11. Milei takes office, launches fiscal adjustment

    Political transition

    Javier Milei becomes president promising to cut public spending and end inflation.

Scenarios

1

Argentina Extends Current Account Surplus Into Second Half

Possible Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Economists cited by Reuters and Trading Economics

Q2 is seasonally Argentina's strongest quarter, when soy and corn harvests ship. If energy export growth and the fiscal adjustment hold, Q3 could post another surplus, extending the streak. The government cites the data to argue the peso is correctly valued.

2

Deficit Returns as Imports Rebound

Uncertain Resolves by Jan 31, 2027

Discussed by: Analysts noting Q2 is typically Argentina's strongest export quarter

If domestic demand recovers faster than export capacity, imports could climb and erase the surplus. The primary income deficit, already $6 billion, would widen further if foreign-owned firms repatriate more profits and dividends.

3

Vaca Muerta LNG Project Reaches Final Investment Decision

Unlikely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Industry analysts tracking YPF's LNG export plans

If YPF secures financing for its liquefied natural gas export project, energy export capacity jumps, making surpluses more durable. The company is still gathering the capital needed for the project.

4

Central Bank Reaches $20 Billion Purchase Target for 2026

Likely Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Government economic team and Banco Comafi analysts, via Infobae

The government aims to buy $20 billion in foreign exchange in 2026. By mid-October it had $15.5 billion, leaving about $4.5 billion for the rest of the year and early 2027. Banco Comafi notes the soybean harvest typically brings another $6.5 billion in the last quarter, and the Vaca Muerta oil pipeline could add crude exports.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

December 2001 - January 2002

Argentina's 2001-2002 collapse

After years of a fixed dollar-peso exchange rate and widening current account deficits, Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt and abandoned the peg. The peso devalued sharply and GDP fell by over 10%.

Then

A wave of bank runs, protests, and five presidents in two weeks. Deposits were frozen and savers lost much of their wealth.

Now

The crisis cemented distrust of the peso and made external financing scarce for over a decade.

Why this matters now

Argentina's recurring problem has been financing deficits without devaluing. Today's surplus is the opposite: it provides the cushion Milei's team says proves the peso is not overvalued.

2003-2008

Soy export boom recovery (2003-2008)

After the crash, high global commodity prices and a depreciated peso made Argentine soy exports extremely profitable. Agricultural sales generated large trade surpluses that funded a rapid economic recovery.

Then

GDP grew at annual rates near 8-9%, and the government rebuilt reserves.

Now

It made agriculture the backbone of Argentina's export economy, but left the country dependent on commodity prices.

Why this matters now

Soy again drove the Q2 2026 surplus, with the crop complex earning $5.9 billion. The difference now is energy, which adds a second export pillar.

2010-2019

US shale revolution (2010s)

Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling turned the US from a net oil importer into the world's largest crude producer within a decade.

Then

US oil output roughly doubled, reshaping global energy markets and trade flows.

Now

Shale made the US energy independent and a major exporter.

Why this matters now

Vaca Muerta is Argentina's shale formation. Oil and petrochemical exports hit $5 billion in Q2, rivaling soy, and YPF's planned LNG project could turn energy into a durable surplus driver.

Sources

(18)
+12
Trading Economics Reuters via Investing.com The Rio Times BAE Negocios La Voz Noticias 24 GBM Media 93.3 The Drive Infobae TN Bloomberg Línea El Nuevo Herald (Reuters) BCRA Ámbito TN Infobae Infobae Ámbito