Iraq's power grid collapses as regional war cuts gas supplies and oil exports

Overview

Iraq has depended on Iranian gas for roughly a third of its electricity since the mid-2010s. On the evening of March 4, 2026, a sudden drop in gas supplies to the Rumaila power plant in southern Iraq triggered a loss of 1,900 megawatts, which cascaded through the national grid and shut down power to all 18 provinces. More than 44 million people went dark, hospitals lost grid power, and communications networks faltered, all while US and Iranian missiles were crisscrossing the region around them.

The blackout is the sharpest single event in a crisis that has been building for months. Iran cut gas exports to Iraq entirely in December 2025. The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched on February 28, prompted Iran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the shipping lane through which most of Iraq's oil revenue flows. By March 3, Iraq had begun shutting down production at its massive Rumaila oil field because onshore storage was filling up with crude that could not leave. The grid collapse hit a country that was simultaneously losing its fuel supply, its primary export route, and its foreign revenue, while its most powerful neighbor was at war.

Play on this story Voices Debate Predict

Key Indicators

1,900 MW

Capacity lost at Rumaila

The sudden gas supply drop eliminated 1,900 megawatts at the Rumaila plant, triggering the nationwide cascading failure.

~33%

Grid dependent on Iranian gas

Iran supplies roughly one-third of the gas and electricity Iraq needs to keep its grid running.

44 million

Population affected

Every Iraqi province lost power, affecting hospitals, water systems, and communications across the country.

Tanker traffic through Hormuz

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to near zero after Iranian warnings and insurance withdrawals, trapping Iraqi oil exports.

Interactive

Exploring all sides of a story is often best achieved with Play.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Mohammed Shia al-Sudani

Managing concurrent security, energy, and economic crises

Organizations Involved

Iraq Ministry of Electricity

Government Ministry

Leading grid restoration efforts

The Iraqi government body responsible for generating and distributing electricity across the country's 18 provinces.

United States Embassy in Baghdad

Diplomatic Mission

Suspended routine services; urging American nationals to depart

The U.S. diplomatic mission in Iraq, which ordered non-emergency staff to leave and suspended consular services as the regional conflict escalated.

Timeline

Entire Iraqi power grid collapses in nationwide blackout
Infrastructure Failure

A sudden drop in gas supplies to the Rumaila power plant caused a 1,900-megawatt loss that cascaded through the grid, shutting down electricity across all 18 provinces. The Ministry of Electricity began restoration but did not explain what caused the gas supply drop.
March 4th, 2026 • evening
Authorities deny attack on Baiji power plant
Statement

Salah al-Din police confirmed a technical shutdown at the Baiji power station and denied circulating reports that the plant had been targeted by an attack.
March 4th, 2026
US Embassy urges all Americans to leave Iraq
Diplomatic

The embassy issued its fifth security alert in four days, urging all American citizens to depart Iraq immediately. Iraqi airspace was closed and consular services suspended.
March 4th, 2026
Iraq begins shutting down Rumaila oil field
Economic

With no tankers able to depart through Hormuz and onshore storage filling up, Iraq started cutting production at Rumaila, its largest oil field. Most Iraqi crude exports flow through the southern port of Basra.
March 3rd, 2026
Strait of Hormuz shipping drops to near zero
Economic

Tanker traffic through the strait collapsed after Iranian warnings and insurer withdrawals. Over 150 ships anchored outside the chokepoint. Insurance for Hormuz transits was pulled effective March 5.
March 1st, 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran
Military

The United States and Israel began joint airstrikes on Iranian targets including Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom. Iran responded with missile barrages against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz.
February 28th, 2026
Iran halts all gas exports to Iraq
Supply Disruption

Iran stopped all gas deliveries to Iraq, citing 'unforeseen circumstances.' The cutoff eliminated 4,000 to 4,500 megawatts from Iraq's grid, roughly a third of the country's supply.
December 23rd, 2025
Drone strike hits Khor Mor gas field, cuts 2,600 MW
Attack

Kamikaze drones struck the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan Region, shutting down production and cutting 80 percent of the region's power. Investigators concluded the drones were launched from near Tuz Khurmatu.
November 26th, 2025
US rescinds waiver allowing Iraq to pay Iran for electricity
Policy

The Trump administration ended a sanctions waiver that had permitted Iraq to purchase gas and electricity from Iran, part of a renewed maximum pressure campaign against Tehran.
March 13th, 2025
Islamic State seizes Mosul, damages power infrastructure
Historical

Islamic State's conquest of northern Iraq knocked out 25 percent of generation capacity. Between 2014 and 2018, fighting caused a cumulative loss of 7 gigawatts.
June 10th, 2014
US invasion collapses Baghdad's power grid again
Historical

Invasion and looting reduced usable generation capacity to 2,500 megawatts, 58 percent of pre-conflict levels. Looters stripped treatment plants and substations of equipment.
April 11th, 2003
Gulf War bombing destroys Iraq's power grid
Historical

Coalition airstrikes hit 28 power plants in 215 sorties, reducing Iraq's 9,500-megawatt capacity to roughly 300 megawatts. The grid was never fully rebuilt under sanctions.
January 17th, 1991

Scenarios

Predict which scenario wins. Contrarian picks score more — points lock in when the scenario resolves.

Predictions leaderboard

Grid partially restored, but chronic shortages persist for months

Iraq restores some generating capacity within days using domestic fuel reserves and limited gas from non-Iranian sources, but without Iranian gas imports or the ability to export oil and earn revenue, the grid operates at a fraction of its pre-crisis capacity. Rolling blackouts become the norm, particularly in southern and central provinces. The crisis eases only when hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz de-escalate enough for tanker traffic to resume.

Discussed by: Energy analysts at Argus Media and the International Energy Agency

Consensus —

Sustained blackouts trigger civil unrest and political instability

Extended power outages in summer heat, combined with collapsing oil revenues and rising prices, push Iraqi public frustration past the threshold seen in the 2019-2020 protest movement. Demonstrations target the government's failure to diversify energy supply away from Iran. The crisis accelerates political challenges to Prime Minister al-Sudani ahead of scheduled elections, potentially destabilizing the Coordination Framework coalition.

Discussed by: Gulf International Forum, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Consensus —

Iraq accelerates energy independence from Iran

The crisis catalyzes long-delayed investment in Iraq's own gas capture infrastructure. Iraq flares roughly 17 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year at its oil fields, enough to significantly reduce dependence on Iranian imports if captured. International pressure and domestic political will converge on fast-tracking gas processing projects and connections to Gulf Cooperation Council power grids, though any meaningful results would take years.

Discussed by: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Baker Institute at Rice University

Consensus —

Regional conflict damages Iraqi power infrastructure directly

If the US-Iran conflict intensifies or Iranian-backed militias escalate attacks within Iraq, power plants and gas pipelines become deliberate or collateral targets. The November 2025 Khor Mor drone strike demonstrated the vulnerability. Direct infrastructure damage would extend the crisis well beyond the duration of any diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz blockade.

Discussed by: Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Iraq-focused security analysts

Consensus —

Historical Context

Lebanon nationwide blackout (2021)

October 2021

What Happened

Lebanon's two largest power plants, Zahrani and Deir Ammar, shut down after running out of diesel fuel amid a financial crisis that had collapsed the Lebanese pound by over 90 percent. The entire country of 6 million lost centrally generated electricity for 24 hours. The army eventually supplied emergency fuel to restart generators.

Outcome

Short Term

Power was partially restored within a day after military fuel deliveries, but blackouts of 22 hours per day became routine for months afterward.

Long Term

Lebanon's grid never fully recovered. As of 2024, state electricity still provided only a few hours per day in most areas, with private generators filling the gap at high cost. The crisis deepened inequality as wealthier households could afford generator subscriptions while poorer families could not.

Why It's Relevant Today

Like Iraq, Lebanon's grid failure was driven by a fuel supply crisis rooted in a broader economic and political collapse rather than direct physical damage. Both cases show how energy dependence on external supplies creates a single point of failure for entire national grids.

Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid (2022-2023)

October 2022 - March 2023

What Happened

Beginning in October 2022, Russia launched waves of cruise missiles and drones targeting Ukraine's electricity infrastructure. An initial barrage of 84 cruise missiles and 24 drones on October 10 began a campaign that ultimately struck 60 percent of Ukrainian generation capacity and damaged 41 of 94 high-voltage substations. By November 2022, roughly half the country's power capacity was offline, leaving over 10 million people without electricity.

Outcome

Short Term

Rolling blackouts became standard across Ukraine through the winter of 2022-2023. Damage exceeded $9.1 billion. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian officials.

Long Term

Ukraine rebuilt significant capacity by distributing smaller generators and importing equipment, but remained vulnerable to repeated attack cycles. The campaign demonstrated that power grids are a primary target in modern conflict.

Why It's Relevant Today

Ukraine showed that power infrastructure becomes a strategic target during active conflict. Iraq's grid, already fragile from decades of war and underinvestment, faces similar exposure as the US-Iran conflict unfolds in the region around it.

Iraq's post-Gulf War electricity collapse (1991)

January-February 1991

What Happened

Coalition forces bombed 28 Iraqi power plants in 215 sorties during the Gulf War, reducing generating capacity from 9,500 megawatts to roughly 300 megawatts. Metallic sheets dropped on the first day short-circuited the grid. International sanctions then prevented full reconstruction for over a decade.

Outcome

Short Term

Iraq's grid dropped to roughly 3 percent of its pre-war output. Water treatment, sewage systems, and hospitals lost power for extended periods.

Long Term

The grid was never fully rebuilt to pre-war standards. Each subsequent conflict, from the 2003 invasion to the Islamic State's 2014 occupation, inflicted additional damage on infrastructure that had never recovered. Thirty-five years later, Iraq still cannot meet peak electricity demand.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current blackout is the latest chapter in a grid that has been damaged, patched, and damaged again across four major conflicts. Each crisis exploits the same underlying vulnerability: Iraq generates less power than it needs and relies on external fuel to close the gap.