1
GEC-III transmission built on schedule, 135 GW evacuation by 2033
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2033
Discussed by: Ministry of Power planning documents
Greenfield projects move through tariff-based competitive bidding without major delays. State utilities clear right-of-way hurdles, and the full 135 GW of evacuation capacity comes online by the March 2033 deadline. Battery storage deployment follows the same schedule.
2
Right-of-way disputes delay GEC-III past 2033
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2033
Discussed by: Indian Express, citing a parliamentary panel report
Compensation for right-of-way has been the main cause of transmission delays in GEC Phase-II. If the same disputes hit Phase-III, completion slips past the target date. The parliamentary panel's report on Phase-II delays suggests this pattern could repeat at a larger scale.
3
Battery storage deployment cuts renewable curtailment sharply
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2030
Discussed by: MNRE, grid operators
The 50 GWh of battery storage absorbs surplus solar during the day and discharges in the evening. If deployed on schedule, annual curtailment drops well below the 6,900 GWh recorded in FY26. This scenario depends on storage projects clearing regulatory and financing hurdles.
4
Greenfield bidding draws private transmission companies
Possible
Discussed by: JP Morgan Research, Business Standard
GEC-III opens greenfield intra-state projects to tariff-based competitive bidding after years of state-led cost-plus awards. JP Morgan Research sees ₹20,000-24,000 crore in annual project opportunities for Power Grid Corporation and Adani Energy Solutions. Execution depends on state utilities, whose efficiency and finances vary.
5
Curtailment keeps rising through FY27 as transmission lags
Likely
Resolves by Apr 1, 2027
Discussed by: Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
About 4.2% of solar output was unabsorbed in July-August 2026. Solar capacity keeps growing faster than transmission - India has met only about 80% of its annual transmission targets over the past five years, per the energy think tank Ember - so curtailment could stay elevated until GEC-II lines and GEC-III's first packages come online.
6
Regulators make co-located storage mandatory for new solar and wind
Possible
Resolves by Jul 1, 2027
Discussed by: Central Electricity Authority proposal
CEA has proposed requiring a minimum 2-hour co-located battery on future ground-mounted solar and on-shore wind projects, plus 15% grid-forming capability for inverters on projects after July 2027. Adoption would push storage beyond GEC-III's 50 GWh but add cost to developers.
7
State sanctions roll out one by one, starting with Andhra Pradesh
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Deccan Chronicle, state transmission utilities
The ₹21,838 crore sanction for Andhra Pradesh is the first state-level project approval under GEC-III. If other states clear right-of-way and financing on similar terms, the 135 GW target stays reachable. If approvals bunch up or states struggle to raise their share, construction slips.
