Jerome Powell

New Capabilities

Sitting Fed chair through May 2026

For most of the 2010s, American workers produced about 1% more output per hour each year. Since the third quarter of 2022, that figure has roughly doubled. The Federal Reserve confirmed this week that the 2% annual pace has now held for nearly four years.

Updated Yesterday

Rule Changes

Stepped down as chair May 15, 2026; staying on as governor through 2028

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 13, 54-45—the closest such vote on record. He took over on May 15, when Jerome Powell's term expired and Powell stepped back to a regular governor seat.

Updated Yesterday

Rule Changes

Leading a divided committee through a three‑cut easing cycle under heavy political scrutiny.

In a single year the Fed has gone from peak post‑Covid rates to a clear easing cycle. December's third 2025 rate cut pushes the federal funds range down to 3.5–3.75% and flips the switch on a new operating regime built around full‑allotment repos and steady Treasury bill buying.

Updated 6 days ago

Money Moves

Presiding over deeply divided FOMC as term nears May 2026 end; Kevin Hassett 70% favorite to succeed

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years, bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or inflation poses the greater risk.

Updated 6 days ago

Money Moves

Serving final months of his term as chair; rate decision on April 29 reflected an unusually divided committee

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of US economic growth for the first three months of 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, alongside the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The release arrived with forecasters more divided than at any point in the current cycle: the Atlanta Fed's real-time tracker pointed to 1.2% annualized growth, while traders on the prediction market Polymarket clustered between 2.0% and 3.0%.

Updated Apr 30

Money Moves

Under intensifying threat of removal; subject of DOJ criminal investigation over Fed headquarters renovation; all Senate Banking Democrats cited the probe as politically motivated in demanding Warsh hearing delay; FOMC meets April 28-29

The six largest American banks wrapped up their first-quarter 2026 reporting with combined net income of $47.3 billion, delivering a near-uniform message from Wall Street: trading floors thrived on the volatility unleashed by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, while the broader economic outlook grew cloudier. JPMorgan earned $5.94 per share on $50.54 billion in revenue as fixed-income trading surged 21 percent to $7.08 billion. Citigroup posted its best quarterly revenue in a decade at $24.63 billion. Bank of America earned $1.11 per share — its highest earnings per share in nearly two decades — while Morgan Stanley posted a record equities trading quarter of $5.15 billion and a 29 percent jump in profit. Goldman Sachs led the week with record equities trading revenue of $5.33 billion. The results arrived even as the banks collectively announced roughly 5,000 job cuts, a sign that Wall Street is using the profit windfall to trim headcount rather than expand.

Updated Apr 19

New Capabilities

Co-convened emergency meeting with bank chief executives

An AI model that can find software flaws no human has caught in nearly three decades has triggered a coordinated response from central banks across the Western world. Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview, which the company says discovered thousands of previously unknown vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, prompted the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to summon Wall Street chief executives to Washington on April 8. By April 11, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and their respective financial regulators had convened or scheduled their own emergency sessions with banks.

Updated Apr 11

Money Moves

Serving final months as chair; term expires May 15, 2026

For the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve has been carefully lowering interest rates, trying to guide the economy toward a soft landing after the post-pandemic inflation surge. On March 6, 2026, two pieces of news arrived simultaneously that may have closed that window. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States economy shed 92,000 jobs in February—the worst monthly reading in years—while Brent crude oil held above $85 a barrel after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 785 points as traders priced in what many had feared but few expected to see confirmed in a single morning: the ingredients for stagflation.

Updated Mar 6

Money Moves

Navigating tension between weak growth data and persistent inflation

The United States economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025—a steep drop from 4.4% the quarter before and well below the 2.5% that forecasters expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in American history, subtracted roughly one full percentage point from growth by itself. Federal spending fell at a 16.6% annualized rate during the quarter, dragging headline output down by more than a percentage point even as consumer spending and business investment continued to expand.

Updated Feb 20

Money Moves

Navigating pressure to cut rates amid elevated inflation; term as chair ends May 2026; facing unusual situation where weak retail data and nested K-shaped spending patterns push markets to expect deeper cuts despite inflation above 2% target

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases. The data, delayed more than a month by a 43-day government shutdown, sent money markets repricing Federal Reserve rate cuts from two to three for 2026. New analysis from Bank of America reveals the structural fracture runs deeper than initially understood: in January, higher-income households' spending grew 2.5% year-over-year, while middle-income households managed just 1% and lower-income households only 0.3%.

Updated Feb 18

Rule Changes

Under DOJ criminal investigation; term as chair expires May 15, 2026; Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as replacement

No president has fired a sitting Federal Reserve governor in the central bank's 112-year history. Donald Trump is trying to be the first—and to replace the Fed chair with a loyalist. His August 2025 attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations escalated into a Supreme Court showdown that exposed the fragility of Fed independence. In a striking January 21, 2026 hearing, all nine justices—including three Trump appointees—expressed skepticism about Trump's removal claims, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh warning the administration's position "would weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve." Fed Chair Jerome Powell attended the arguments and later called the case "perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history." Nine days later, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a 55-year-old former Fed governor and longtime Trump ally, to replace Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Under DOJ criminal investigation; term expires May 2026

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires in May. Markets reacted violently: gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence. Silver crashed 30% in its worst day since 1980. The dollar index spiked to 97.14, recovering from multi-year lows below 96. However, by February 3-5, gold rebounded to $5,070 as investors reassessed the confirmation timeline and Powell investigation trajectory. The rally began January 26 when gold broke $5,000 for the first time, driven by the unprecedented DOJ grand jury subpoenas served January 9 over Powell's congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Under DOJ criminal investigation; term ends May 2026

Bitcoin has now fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5 after plunging 11% in a single day—triggering over $1 billion in new liquidations and extending the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Term as Chair expires May 15, 2026; has not said whether he will remain as Governor

Gold touched $5,600 per ounce on January 29, 2026—its highest price in history. Silver peaked above $121. Three days later, gold had lost 21% and silver had cratered 40%, erasing roughly $15 trillion in market value in one of the most violent precious metals selloffs since 1980.

Updated Feb 2

Rule Changes

Under DOJ criminal investigation while leading Fed through final months of term; defending central bank independence

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% on January 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote that exposed a stunning reversal in internal divisions. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut—the first time two sitting governors have dissented together in decades. Just six weeks earlier in December, the vote split 9-3 the opposite direction: Miran wanted a 50 basis-point cut while Goolsbee and Schmid opposed any cut at all. The December minutes revealed even supporters called that decision "finely balanced." Now the battle lines have shifted entirely, with some hawks turning dovish while the 2026 FOMC voting rotation brought three new hawks—Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Dallas's Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari—replacing Chicago's Goolsbee and Kansas City's Schmid. Miran's four-month term expired January 31, though he stated he will remain until Trump names a permanent replacement.

Updated Feb 1

Money Moves

Under DOJ criminal investigation

Gold pulled back sharply to $4,902.85 per ounce on January 31, 2026, after profit-taking triggered a 9% single-day decline on January 30 from the record $5,594.82 high reached January 29. Despite the correction—which saw prices slide more than 7% to below $4,980—gold remains on track for a monthly gain exceeding 15%, its strongest performance since the 1980s. The U.S. dollar continued its freefall, breaking below 97.0 to reach 95.5, a four-year low, after the New York Federal Reserve conducted a rare "rate check" with currency traders that accelerated selling pressure. The dollar's share of global reserves fell to 58.2%, a new low since 1995, with central banks net selling $48 billion in dollar reserves during January alone.

Updated Jan 31

Rule Changes

Under DOJ criminal investigation; term expires May 2026

No president has ever criminally investigated a sitting Federal Reserve chair. When Trump's Justice Department served Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas on January 11, two Republican senators announced they would block all Fed nominees until the probe ends. With a 13-11 GOP majority on the Banking Committee, even one defection creates a confirmation stalemate.

Updated Jan 28

Money Moves

Chairmanship expires May 15, 2026; under DOJ criminal investigation; facing escalating political attacks

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal. Core inflation came in at 2.6%, slightly below forecasts. The data confirms what markets already expected: no rate cut at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the Fed will also release updated economic projections.

Updated Jan 15