Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

Force in Play

Actively enforcing Bamako blockade with physical checkpoints (from May 1); attacked Kenieroba Central Prison ~60km from Bamako and torched food trucks (May 6, repelled by FAMa); FLA allies holding ~130 Malian soldiers captive in Kidal; Hombori base in central Mali claimed but disputed by Africa Corps

Eleven days after Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) rebels and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) struck five Malian cities simultaneously on April 25, 2026, President Assimi Goïta is governing without either a functioning intelligence service or an independent defence ministry. On May 4 he resolved the latter vacancy by assuming the defence portfolio himself by presidential decree — naming Army Chief of Staff General Oumar Diarra as minister delegate — more than a week after the car-bomb assassination of predecessor Sadio Camara. Simultaneously, a military tribunal opened a criminal probe into the April 25 attacks and identified five suspects, including three active-duty soldiers, while also accusing exiled politician Oumar Mariko of involvement in the planning. In the days that followed, security forces abducted several critics and lawyers — including prominent Bamako lawyer Mountaga Tall, seized from his home by hooded men on May 2 — prompting Amnesty International to call for his immediate release and the UN human rights office to warn of 'gravely concerning' reports of extrajudicial killings by Malian security forces.

Updated May 6

Force in Play

Dominant jihadist force in the Sahel, shifting toward economic warfare

At the peak in 2014, terrorism killed roughly 33,000 people worldwide — driven largely by the Islamic State's rapid territorial conquest across Iraq and Syria. Twelve years later, the Global Terrorism Index for 2026 reports that annual deaths have dropped 83%, to 5,582 — the lowest figure since 2007. Terrorist incidents fell 22% to 2,944, and 81 countries recorded improvements.

Updated Mar 28

Force in Play

Expanding operations across Sahel and coastal West Africa

Armed men on motorcycles attacked Niger's main airport and military air base outside Niamey on January 29, 2026, triggering a firefight that left 20 attackers dead and 4 security personnel wounded. Military ruler Abdourahamane Tiani immediately accused France, Benin, and Ivory Coast of sponsoring the assault—offering no evidence. The next day, the Islamic State – Sahel Province claimed responsibility through its Amaq News Agency, directly contradicting the junta's allegations. Benin's government rejected Tiani's claims. A uranium stockpile moved from a French-controlled mine sat nearby, reportedly unaffected.

Updated Feb 5

Force in Play

Active in Timbuktu region, enforcing blockade

A ferry carrying rice farmers and their families struck rocks and sank near the town of Diré in Mali's Timbuktu region on January 8, 2026, killing 38 people. The captain had refused to wait until morning to dock—a decision that violated security rules prohibiting after-dark landings due to al-Qaeda-linked militant activity. When he attempted an alternate landing site, the vessel hit submerged rocks and went down.

Updated Jan 22