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Global terrorism deaths fall to lowest level since 2007

Global terrorism deaths fall to lowest level since 2007

Force in Play

Annual deaths dropped 28% to 5,582, but the decline masks rising violence in Pakistan and the West

March 19th, 2026: Global Terrorism Index 2026 reports decade-low deaths

Overview

At the peak in 2014, terrorism killed roughly 33,000 people worldwide — driven largely by the Islamic State's rapid territorial conquest across Iraq and Syria. Twelve years later, the Global Terrorism Index for 2026 reports that annual deaths have dropped 83%, to 5,582 — the lowest figure since 2007. Terrorist incidents fell 22% to 2,944, and 81 countries recorded improvements.

The headline number, however, obscures sharp divergences. Pakistan has become the world's most terrorism-affected country for the first time, with 1,139 deaths in 2025. Fatalities from terrorism in Western nations surged 280%, driven almost entirely by lone-wolf political attacks rather than the religiously motivated plots that dominated the prior decade. And the Sahel's apparent improvement may reflect a strategic pivot by jihadist groups toward economic warfare rather than a genuine loss of capability.

Why it matters

The steepest sustained decline in terrorism deaths since modern tracking began is reshaping where security resources flow — and where threats are quietly growing.

Play on this story Voices Debate Predict

Key Indicators

5,582
Deaths from terrorism in 2025
Down 28% from 2024 and 83% from the 2014 peak of roughly 33,000
2,944
Terrorist incidents in 2025
Down 22% year-over-year, the lowest count in nearly two decades
81
Countries that improved
Compared to 19 that deteriorated, of which 7 were Western nations
280%
Surge in Western terrorism fatalities
57 deaths in 2025, with 93% from lone-wolf attacks and political motivations overtaking religious ones
1,139
Deaths in Pakistan
Pakistan became the most terrorism-affected country for the first time, its worst year since 2013
76%
Attacks within 100 km of a border
Up from roughly 60% in 2007, reflecting how terrorism concentrates in ungoverned border zones

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People Involved

Steve Killelea
Steve Killelea
Active — oversees publication of the Global Terrorism Index

Organizations Involved

Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
International Think Tank
Publisher of the Global Terrorism Index 2026

A non-profit think tank that produces quantitative indices measuring peace, terrorism, and their economic impacts across 163 countries.
Islamic State (ISIS)
Islamic State (ISIS)
Terrorist Organization
Degraded but still the world's deadliest terrorist organization by attack count

A transnational jihadist organization that controlled 41,000 square miles at its 2014 peak and has since fragmented into regional affiliates responsible for 17% of global attacks in 2025.
TT
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Terrorist Organization
Third deadliest terrorist group globally in 2025

A Pakistani jihadist umbrella group that has escalated sharply since the Afghan Taliban's return to power in 2021, making Pakistan the world's most terrorism-affected country.
JN
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
Al-Qaeda affiliate, Sahel
Dominant jihadist force in the Sahel, shifting toward economic warfare

An al-Qaeda-affiliated coalition that controls or influences large swaths of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and has pivoted from mass-casualty attacks to territorial consolidation and economic blockades.

Timeline

  1. Global Terrorism Index 2026 reports decade-low deaths

    Report

    The IEP published its annual index showing terrorism deaths fell 28% to 5,582 and incidents dropped 22% to 2,944 — the lowest figures since 2007. Pakistan replaced Burkina Faso as the most-affected country, and Western fatalities surged 280%.

  2. Niger coup completes Sahel junta trifecta

    Political

    Following coups in Burkina Faso and Mali, Niger's military seized power. All three countries subsequently expelled French forces and turned to Russia's Africa Corps, with mixed security results.

  3. Burkina Faso military coup

    Political

    The first in a series of military coups across the Sahel that disrupted counterterrorism partnerships with Western nations and created institutional vacuums exploited by jihadist groups.

  4. Taliban retake Kabul — Pakistan militancy resurges

    Turning Point

    The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan provided safe haven for the TTP and other groups, fueling a cross-border insurgency that would make Pakistan the world's most terrorism-affected country by 2025.

  5. ISIS loses final territory at Baghuz

    Military

    Syrian Democratic Forces captured Baghuz, the last town held by ISIS, ending the group's physical caliphate. The organization fragmented into regional affiliates and underground cells.

  6. Mosul liberated after nine-month siege

    Military

    Iraqi forces recaptured Mosul from ISIS, marking the effective end of the group's territorial caliphate. By this point, ISIS had lost 95% of its territory.

  7. Islamic State declares caliphate — terrorism peaks

    Turning Point

    ISIS declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria. That year, terrorism killed roughly 33,000 people worldwide — the modern peak. The group controlled 41,000 square miles and attracted over 40,000 foreign fighters.

  8. First Global Terrorism Index published

    Measurement

    The Institute for Economics & Peace released the inaugural GTI covering 158 countries, creating a standardized annual benchmark for terrorism trends.

  9. September 11 attacks reshape global security

    Turning Point

    Al-Qaeda's attacks on the United States killed nearly 3,000 people and launched the Global War on Terror, defining counterterrorism policy for the next two decades.

Scenarios

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1

Decline continues as fragmented groups fail to rebuild

If current trends hold, terrorism deaths could fall below 5,000 within a few years, approaching pre-2004 levels. This scenario depends on ISIS affiliates remaining fragmented, Sahel jihadist groups continuing their shift from mass-casualty attacks to localized governance, and Pakistan's military operations degrading TTP infrastructure. Improved border surveillance technology and intelligence sharing accelerate the decline. Terrorism becomes a predominantly local phenomenon rather than a global security priority.

Discussed by: Institute for Economics & Peace, Human Progress, Our World in Data
Consensus —
2

Sahel calm proves illusory as JNIM consolidates power

The Sahel's falling death toll masks JNIM's pivot to economic warfare and territorial consolidation. If the group successfully establishes parallel governance structures — as it has with fuel blockades and taxation — the declining attack numbers could precede a strategic breakout. JNIM's per-engagement lethality already rose sharply in 2025. A reconsolidated jihadist zone spanning Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger would represent a larger governed territory than ISIS held at its 2014 peak, though with less international media attention.

Discussed by: GTI 2026 analysts, Janes security assessment, Ujasusi Africa security analysis
Consensus —
3

Lone-wolf political violence reshapes terrorism in the West

The 280% surge in Western fatalities, driven by politically motivated lone-wolf attackers rather than organized cells, continues to accelerate. With children and adolescents now accounting for 42% of terror-related investigations in Europe and North America — triple the rate in 2021 — and radicalization timelines compressing from months to weeks via algorithmic amplification, the nature of terrorism in wealthy democracies shifts permanently. Counterterrorism agencies designed to intercept organized networks struggle to adapt to decentralized, ideologically diverse threats.

Discussed by: GTI 2026 report, European counterterrorism agencies
Consensus —
4

Pakistan's crisis triggers regional destabilization

Pakistan's ascent to the top of the GTI coincides with escalating TTP and BLA campaigns concentrated along the Afghan border. If Pakistan's security forces cannot reverse the trend, the violence could spill into broader regional instability — particularly given ongoing tensions with Afghanistan's Taliban government, which has been unwilling or unable to rein in TTP safe havens. This scenario is compounded by the GTI's finding that 76% of attacks occur within 100 km of international borders.

Discussed by: GTI 2026 report, Janes global security analysis
Consensus —

Historical Context

The defeat of the Shining Path in Peru (1992–2000)

September 1992 – 2000

What Happened

Peru's Maoist insurgent group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) killed nearly 70,000 people over two decades. In September 1992, Peru's intelligence service captured its founder Abimael Guzmán in a Lima apartment. His arrest triggered a rapid organizational collapse. Within a few years, violence dropped by over 90%.

Outcome

Short Term

Shining Path attacks plummeted. Guzmán called for peace talks from prison, splitting the remaining movement.

Long Term

Peru's experience became a case study in how decapitating a centralized insurgency can produce rapid, lasting decline — a pattern that echoes in ISIS's territorial collapse after losing its caliphate.

Why It's Relevant Today

The global terrorism decline follows a similar arc: the destruction of ISIS's centralized caliphate drove the sharpest drop. But ISIS's affiliate model means there's no single leader to capture, raising the question of whether fragmented networks can reconsolidate.

The decline of left-wing terrorism in Western Europe (1975–1995)

1975–1995

What Happened

Groups like the Red Army Faction in Germany, the Red Brigades in Italy, and Action Directe in France conducted hundreds of bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings through the 1970s and 1980s. By the mid-1990s, all three had dissolved or been dismantled through a combination of arrests, internal fissures, and loss of public sympathy.

Outcome

Short Term

Arrests of core leadership cells between 1987 and 1998 ended operational capability.

Long Term

Left-wing terrorism in Western Europe essentially vanished as a security threat, demonstrating that sustained decline can become permanent when the underlying ideological appeal fades.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current shift in Western terrorism — from organized religiously motivated cells to lone-wolf political attackers — parallels how European terrorism morphed rather than disappeared. The threat changed form rather than vanishing, just as today's GTI data shows religious attacks declining 82% while political attacks surged.

Colombia's FARC demobilization (2016)

November 2016

What Happened

After four years of negotiations, the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace agreement ending 52 years of armed conflict that had killed over 260,000 people. Approximately 13,000 FARC fighters demobilized and the group became a political party.

Outcome

Short Term

Violence dropped sharply in former FARC territories. Colombia's homicide rate fell to its lowest in four decades by 2019.

Long Term

Dissident factions that rejected the peace deal continued operating, and other armed groups expanded into vacuums left by FARC's withdrawal — demonstrating that statistical decline can coexist with localized deterioration.

Why It's Relevant Today

Colombia's experience directly mirrors the GTI's findings: national-level improvements mask the fact that violence doesn't disappear so much as migrate. Colombia remains in the GTI's top ten most-affected countries in 2025 despite the peace deal, just as the Sahel's declining death toll coexists with JNIM's expanding territorial control.

Sources

(10)
+4
Human Progress Vision of Humanity PR Newswire (IEP Press Release) Institute for Economics & Peace ASIS International / Security Management Ujasusi Our World in Data Wilson Center Vision of Humanity Vision of Humanity