Wisconsin Supreme Court's liberal majority faces test as voters decide whether to expand it to 5-2

Overview

Chris Taylor defeated conservative Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar on April 7, winning the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and expanding the liberal majority from 4-3 to 5-2. Taylor, a liberal Appeals Court Judge with a background in abortion rights advocacy, secured approximately 56% of the vote in a race that drew significantly less national attention and spending than the previous two cycles. The outcome gives the liberal bloc a two-seat cushion—enough to withstand recusal challenges and forced absences that have repeatedly threatened their ability to hear major cases on redistricting, abortion rights, and election disputes.

With a 5-2 supermajority now in place, Chief Justice Jill Karofsky is expected to move forward with public hearings on recusal reform, potentially adopting stricter standards that would limit the recusal tactics conservatives have deployed since 2023. The court's next major test comes in 2027, when conservative Justice Annette Ziegler's seat comes up for election—a race that could push the margin to 6-1 if liberals maintain their winning streak. Wisconsin's Supreme Court has become the most consequential state court in the country, with final authority over redistricting and election disputes in a state where presidential margins are measured in fractions of a percentage point.

Why it matters

A 5-2 court can survive recusal challenges and forced absences that would paralyze a 4-3 majority on redistricting and election cases.

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Key Indicators

5-2

Liberal majority on 7-member court

Taylor's victory expands the liberal bloc from a bare majority to a supermajority with a two-seat cushion

56%

Taylor's vote share

Defeated Lazar with approximately 56% of the vote in a lower-profile race than 2023 and 2025

5 of 6

Recent liberal wins in Wisconsin Supreme Court races

Liberals have won in 2018, 2020, 2023, 2025, and 2026, losing only in 2019

$8.9M

Total race spending (through March 31)

A fraction of the $115 million spent on the 2025 race, reflecting the reduced stakes of defending an already-held seat

Interactive

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People Involved

Chris Taylor

Elected to Wisconsin Supreme Court; will take 10-year seat

Maria Lazar

Lost Supreme Court race; remains on Wisconsin Court of Appeals

Rebecca Bradley

Retiring; did not seek re-election

Janet Protasiewicz

Serving on the court; liberal bloc member

Jill Karofsky

Serving as chief justice; has pledged public hearings on recusal reform

Organizations Involved

Wisconsin Supreme Court

State Judiciary

Now holds a 5-2 liberal majority following Taylor's victory; positioned to pursue recusal reform and hear major cases without vulnerability to forced absences

Wisconsin's court of last resort, with seven justices elected to 10-year terms in officially nonpartisan spring elections.

Timeline

Wisconsin voters go to the polls in Supreme Court election
Election

Voters cast ballots in a race between Taylor and Lazar. Taylor entered election day with a large polling and fundraising advantage, though nearly half of voters remained undecided in the final major poll.
April 7th, 2026
Chris Taylor defeats Maria Lazar, expanding liberal majority to 5-2
Election

Taylor wins approximately 56% of the vote, securing the 10-year Supreme Court seat and giving the liberal bloc a two-seat supermajority. The outcome insulates the court from recusal-based challenges and positions liberals to pursue recusal reform and hear major cases on redistricting and election law.
April 7th, 2026 • 9:30 PM
Marquette poll shows Taylor leading among likely voters
Poll

The Marquette University Law School poll finds Taylor leading 30% to 22%, with 46% of registered voters still undecided. Democrats show significantly higher enthusiasm to vote than Republicans.
March 18th, 2026
Taylor and Lazar advance through nonpartisan primary
Election

Chris Taylor and Maria Lazar win the top two spots in the nonpartisan primary, setting up the April general election.
February 18th, 2026
Conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley announces she won't seek re-election
Statement

Bradley says the 'best path to rebuild the conservative movement' is not as a minority member of the court, opening the seat that could expand the liberal majority to 5-2.
August 1st, 2025
Court rules Wisconsin's 1849 law does not ban abortion
Legal

In a 4-3 ruling, the court finds the legislature effectively repealed the pre-Civil War abortion statute through subsequent laws, restoring abortion access in the state.
July 2nd, 2025
Susan Crawford wins $115 million Supreme Court race, preserving liberal majority
Election

Crawford defeats former Attorney General Brad Schimel in the most expensive judicial election ever, despite over $25 million in spending by Elon Musk-backed groups supporting Schimel.
April 1st, 2025
Governor Evers signs new legislative maps into law
Legal

Facing court-drawn maps, the legislature passes Governor Evers's proposed maps. Democrats go on to pick up 14 seats in the 2024 elections under the new boundaries.
February 19th, 2024
Court strikes down Republican-drawn legislative maps
Legal

In a 4-3 ruling, the liberal majority strikes down gerrymandered Assembly and Senate district maps, finding at least 50 of 99 Assembly districts violated constitutional contiguity requirements.
December 22nd, 2023
Protasiewicz flips court in most expensive judicial race in U.S. history
Election

Janet Protasiewicz defeats Daniel Kelly 55.5% to 44.5% in a $51 million race, giving liberals a 4-3 majority for the first time since 2008.
April 4th, 2023
Conservatives take control of Wisconsin Supreme Court
Election

Conservative Michael Gableman defeats liberal incumbent Louis Butler, establishing a 4-3 conservative majority that would hold for 15 years.
April 1st, 2008

Scenarios

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Predictions leaderboard

Taylor wins, liberals secure 5-2 supermajority

Taylor's consistent polling lead, massive fundraising advantage, and higher Democratic enthusiasm make this the expected outcome. A 5-2 majority would allow the liberal bloc to pursue recusal reform, hear congressional redistricting challenges without vulnerability to recusal tactics, and enter the 2028 election cycle with a comfortable margin. Conservative Justice Annette Ziegler's seat comes up in 2027, and given recent trends, liberals could potentially reach 6-1.

Discussed by: Marquette Law School polling, NBC News analysis, The Hill (reporting Wisconsin Republicans 'bracing for defeat')

Consensus —

Lazar pulls upset, court stays at 4-3

With 46% of voters undecided in the final poll and early voting down by more than half from 2025, a low-turnout scenario could benefit Lazar if conservative voters show up disproportionately. The race has drawn minimal national attention or spending, meaning the outcome may hinge on which side's base is more motivated in a low-profile spring election. A Lazar win would preserve the status quo: liberals maintain their majority but remain vulnerable to recusal-based challenges on key cases.

Discussed by: Lazar campaign messaging, conservative legal organizations

Consensus —

Taylor wins narrowly, but margin signals conservative resilience

Even in a Taylor victory, the margin matters. A closer-than-expected result could suggest the four-race liberal winning streak is built on specific conditions — high-stakes national attention and massive spending — rather than a durable shift in Wisconsin judicial politics. This would influence strategy for the 2027 race (Ziegler's seat) and whether national donors re-engage.

Discussed by: Sabato's Crystal Ball, Wisconsin political observers

Consensus —

Karofsky pursues recusal reform, court adopts stricter standards

With a 5-2 supermajority, the liberal bloc has the votes to adopt recusal rules that would limit the conservative tactic of demanding justices step aside based on campaign statements or spending by parties appearing before the court. Wisconsin's current rules, adopted in 2010 when conservatives held the majority, do not require recusal based on campaign spending. Stricter standards could be adopted over conservative objections, fundamentally changing how the court operates.

Discussed by: Chief Justice Jill Karofsky (public commitment to hearings), legal analysts at Brennan Center for Justice

Consensus —

Court hears congressional redistricting cases, redraws U.S. House maps

With a 5-2 majority insulated from recusal challenges, the court is now positioned to hear cases challenging Wisconsin's Republican-drawn congressional maps. If the court strikes down the maps as unconstitutional partisan gerrymanders, it could redraw them before the 2028 elections, potentially shifting multiple U.S. House seats. This would parallel Pennsylvania's 2018 experience, when a newly liberal state Supreme Court redrawn congressional maps and Democrats gained three seats.

Discussed by: Wisconsin Democratic Party, voting rights advocates, legal observers

Consensus —

Liberals win 2027 race for Ziegler's seat, push margin to 6-1

Conservative Justice Annette Ziegler's seat comes up for election in April 2027. Given liberals' five-race winning streak (2018, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2026) and the structural advantage of defending a seat rather than flipping one, a liberal victory would expand the majority to 6-1—a margin that would give the liberal bloc near-total control of the court's agenda and eliminate any vulnerability to recusal tactics or strategic absences.

Discussed by: Wisconsin political observers, Democratic strategists

Consensus —

Historical Context

Pennsylvania Supreme Court flip and redistricting (2015-2018)

November 2015 - February 2018

What Happened

Democrats swept all three open seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in 2015, creating a 5-2 majority. In January 2018, the new court ruled the state's congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander — under the 2011 Republican-drawn map, GOP candidates had won 13 of 18 seats despite receiving only 49% of the statewide vote. When the legislature failed to agree on a replacement, the court drew its own maps.

Outcome

Short Term

Democrats gained three congressional seats in the 2018 midterms under the redrawn maps, and the new map was widely considered one of the fairest in the country.

Long Term

The ruling established that state constitutions could provide independent grounds to challenge partisan gerrymandering — a principle that became even more important after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that federal courts could not hear such claims.

Why It's Relevant Today

Wisconsin's liberal majority has already redrawn state legislative maps and is now considering congressional redistricting cases. Pennsylvania shows the full arc: court flip, map challenge, redrawn districts, changed election outcomes.

North Carolina Supreme Court reversal on gerrymandering (2022-2023)

November 2022 - April 2023

What Happened

Republicans flipped the North Carolina Supreme Court to a 5-2 majority in the 2022 elections. Within months, the new court took the extraordinary step of rehearsing and reversing the previous liberal majority's rulings that had struck down partisan gerrymandering and a voter identification law — decisions issued just months earlier.

Outcome

Short Term

Republicans drew aggressively gerrymandered maps that helped them gain three to four congressional seats in the 2024 elections.

Long Term

The reversal demonstrated that a supermajority is structurally different from a bare majority: the North Carolina court was willing to reverse recent precedent, something a narrow majority might hesitate to do given institutional legitimacy concerns.

Why It's Relevant Today

North Carolina illustrates what a supermajority enables — and what Wisconsin liberals are seeking. A 5-2 majority wouldn't just survive recusal challenges; it could pursue bolder action on recusal reform, congressional redistricting, and election rules with less institutional risk.

Wisconsin Supreme Court flip in the Protasiewicz race (2023)

April 2023

What Happened

Janet Protasiewicz defeated Daniel Kelly by 11 points in a $51 million race — the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history at the time — flipping the court from a 15-year conservative majority to a 4-3 liberal majority. Republicans immediately demanded Protasiewicz recuse herself from redistricting cases because she had called existing maps 'rigged' during her campaign.

Outcome

Short Term

Protasiewicz declined to recuse. The court struck down gerrymandered legislative maps in December 2023, and new maps helped Democrats gain 14 state legislative seats in 2024.

Long Term

The race marked the beginning of three consecutive cycles where Wisconsin's Supreme Court elections attracted national attention and record spending, culminating in the $115 million 2025 race. It also established recusal demands as a primary conservative tactical tool against the liberal majority.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2023 race created the 4-3 majority that the 2026 election could expand to 5-2. The recusal controversy it generated is the central reason the margin matters: at 4-3, a single forced recusal neutralizes the majority.