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America's measles elimination status at risk

America's measles elimination status at risk

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Cases reach 5,182, the highest annual total since 1991, with at least 562 hospitalizations and eight deaths

Overview

Updated 4 days ago

The CDC reported 5,182 measles cases in 2026 as of November 6, the highest annual total since 1991 and more than double all of 2025, with at least 562 hospitalizations. Children and teenagers make up almost 60 percent of confirmed cases, and 812 cases were in children under 5 as of October 29.

Pennsylvania reported 1,467 cases and 283 hospitalizations as of November 4 and confirmed a sixth death. PAHO's expert commission has not announced whether the U.S. still meets measles elimination criteria, which it has held since 2000.

Why it matters

Measles, eliminated in the U.S. in 2000, is spreading again as vaccination rates fall. At least eight people have died this year.

Guess first

US measles cases hit a 35-year high this year. Guess how high.

Confirmed measles cases in the US each year since 2000, when the country declared measles eliminated. The line stops at 2025: drag the dot to guess 2026 so far.

0200040006000 20102020 2000: declared eliminated 2019: 1,274, most since 1992 5182

2026 (to Nov 5): 5182. 5,182 cases by November 5: more than all 25 years from 2000 to 2024 put together (4,485), and more than double 2025. It is still far below 1990, when the US counted 27,808.

US measles cases hit a 35-year high this year. Guess how high. Notes and the latest months; 27 points from 2000 to 2026 at the source.
DateValue
200085
2014667
2015191
201686
2017120
2018381
20191274
202013
202149
2022121
202359
2024285
20252289
20265182

As of 2026-11-07. CDC yearly confirmed measles case counts, 2000 to 2026, from the data behind the CDC's Measles Cases and Outbreaks page (last updated November 5, 2026). 2026 is a partial year, cases reported as of November 5. The sum of 2000-2024 (4,485) is our addition. Sources: CDC, Measles Cases and Outbreaks, CDC, yearly measles cases data file (MeaslesCasesHistory.json), CDC, History of Measles.

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Key Indicators

5,182
Cases in 2026 (Nov 6)
CDC-confirmed; highest annual total since 1991; 96% in unvaccinated people or those with unknown status
2,289
Cases in 2025
2026's count is more than double it; 2025 had been the worst year since 1991
1,467
Pennsylvania Cases
Across 44 counties as of Nov 4; six confirmed deaths
6
Deaths in Pennsylvania
Confirmed by the state as of Nov 4; CDC has verified three nationally and will not say where they occurred
8+
Deaths reported nationally
State health agencies; CDC has confirmed three
562
Hospitalizations
At least 562 as of Nov 6; about 11% of cases, with the highest rate among children younger than 5
812
Cases Under 5
Children younger than 5 as of Oct 29, the age group with the highest hospitalization rate
~60%
Cases Under 20
Children and teenagers make up almost 60 percent of confirmed cases
7,471
Cases Since Jan 2025
2025's 2,289 plus 2026's 5,182, the confirmed total behind the 12-month continuous-transmission threshold
43
Outbreaks in 2026
Three or more linked cases each; only 18 infections were in international visitors
20,000+
Estimated True Cases
Andrew Pavia's estimate of infections since early 2025, against the confirmed count
92.7%
MMR Coverage
Kindergarten rate for 2023-24, down from 95.2% in 2019-20 and below the 95% herd-immunity mark
26
Years Since Elimination
Elimination declared in 2000; PAHO has not announced the outcome of its review

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Dorothy Parker

Dorothy Parker

(1893-1967) · Jazz Age · wit

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"I see we've finally achieved what centuries of plague and pestilence could not: we've made stupidity contagious."

Madam C. J. Walker

Madam C. J. Walker

(1867-1919) · Progressive Era · entrepreneurship

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"I built an empire by understanding that prevention is far cheaper than cure—a lesson I applied to scalp disease that these modern leaders seem to have forgotten about measles. When I traveled town to town, I saw how easily disease spread among our people, yet I also witnessed the power of education and collective action to stop it; today's failure isn't one of science, but of will. There is no profit in allowing our children to suffer what we already learned to prevent."

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

March 2000 November 2026

40 events Latest: 5 days ago Showing 8 of 40
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. CDC reports 5,182 measles cases, highest since 1991

    Latest Milestone

    The CDC reported 5,182 cases in 2026, the highest annual total since 1991, with at least 562 hospitalizations. State health agencies report at least eight measles-related deaths.

  2. Pennsylvania confirms sixth measles death

    Death

    The state reported 1,467 confirmed cases and 283 hospitalizations as of November 4 and confirmed a sixth measles-linked death. New York had reported its first measles-associated child death in more than 30 years days earlier.

  3. Sequencing links Washington cases to South Carolina outbreak

    Research

    Genomic sequencing published in NEJM Evidence traced 26 measles cases in Washington State to five separate introductions from South Carolina's outbreak. All 26 were in unvaccinated people or those with unknown status.

  4. US measles cases reach 4,852 for 2026

    Milestone

    CDC reported 4,852 confirmed cases as of October 29, up 264 (5.8%) in a week and more than double 2025's 2,289. Hospitalizations reached 511, and 812 cases were in children under 5; Pennsylvania reported 1,426 cases and 268 hospitalizations as of October 30.

  5. US measles cases reach 4,588 for 2026

    Milestone

    CDC reported 4,588 confirmed cases as of October 22, up 178 in a week and more than double 2025's total of 2,289; 479 people have been hospitalized. Pennsylvania reported 1,338 cases in 44 counties, 255 hospitalizations and five confirmed deaths, and said its nurses have given more than 10,300 MMR doses this year.

  6. Pavia says true case count likely above 20,000

    Statement

    At the IDWeek conference in Washington, University of Utah epidemiologist Andrew Pavia said underreporting means the real number of U.S. infections since early 2025 is 'probably greater than 20,000,' against 6,877 confirmed.

  7. PAHO official says Mexico and Bolivia also at risk

    Statement

    Daniel Salas, who runs PAHO's immunization program, told Al Jazeera that Mexico and Bolivia 'could potentially lose status as well.' Canada lost its status in 2025 after an outbreak that began in 2024.

  8. West Coast states say CDC stalled on measles test

    Official Action

    The West Coast Health Alliance (California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii) told CDC Director Erica Schwartz in a letter that the agency took two months to answer a May request to validate a test able to diagnose 500 cases in eight hours. The CDC cited 'other competing priorities.'

  9. CDC confirms third measles death without naming state

    Death

    The CDC added a third measles death to its dashboard but would not say whether it occurred in Pennsylvania, citing privacy laws. Pennsylvania has reported five deaths and is investigating a sixth.

  10. Pennsylvania warns doctors about measles in pregnancy

    Official Action

    The state health department told clinicians to treat every baby born to a mother infected during pregnancy as exposed, whatever the stage of pregnancy, and to watch for complications that can appear years later. Officials said 66 pregnant women have been diagnosed since April and that congenital measles had been identified for the first time in decades.

  11. US measles cases reach 4,410 in 2026

    Milestone

    CDC reported 4,410 confirmed cases as of October 15 across 47 jurisdictions, up 330 (8.1%) from the prior week. 451 people (10%) have been hospitalized; 96% of cases are outbreak-associated.

  12. Pennsylvania measles cases pass 1,000

    Milestone

    Pennsylvania reported 1,004 measles cases and five deaths as of October 5. Lancaster County was hardest hit with 391 cases; 198 people were hospitalized. All five deaths were unvaccinated.

  13. CDC deploys disease detective to Pennsylvania

    Official Action

    CDC sent an Epidemic Intelligence Service officer to Pennsylvania and released nearly $4 million for the measles response, the agency's first in-person assistance to the state.

  14. Pennsylvania MMR vaccine demand surges

    Official Action

    Pennsylvania health care professionals administered about 49,000 MMR doses in August and 53,000 in September, double the usual 25,000 per month.

  15. Pennsylvania reports first measles deaths in 35 years

    Death

    Two unvaccinated people in Lancaster County died of measles complications, the state's first measles deaths since 1991. Several more deaths followed as cases passed 1,000.

  16. PAHO reviews U.S. and Mexico elimination status

    Official Action

    PAHO's Regional Monitoring Commission was scheduled to review whether the U.S. and Mexico still met measles elimination criteria. No outcome has been reported in sources reviewed as of mid-October.

  17. Pennsylvania measles outbreak begins

    Outbreak

    The Pennsylvania outbreak began in late April 2026, with cases spiking in August and September and centered in Lancaster County.

  18. South Carolina Outbreak Hits 950 Cases

    Milestone

    South Carolina DPH reported 950 measles cases in its outbreak—246 under age 5, 611 ages 6-17—with 94% unvaccinated or unknown status. The state surge accounts for most of the national total.

  19. CDC Confirms 910 U.S. Cases in 2026

    Milestone

    CDC reported 910 confirmed measles cases across 24 jurisdictions year-to-date, up 177 from prior week (24% increase); 90% outbreak-associated with 5 new outbreaks.

  20. South Carolina Reaches 933 Cases

    Outbreak

    South Carolina DPH reported 933 cases (859 unvaccinated); January vaccinations rose 72% year-over-year with 16,800+ doses administered.

  21. PAHO Issues Regional Measles Alert

    Official Action

    PAHO epidemiological alert noted 1,031 cases in first 3 weeks of 2026 across 7 countries (43-fold increase vs 2025), urging vaccination and surveillance; U.S. had 910 cases in 24 states.

  22. South Carolina Outbreak Reaches 789 Cases

    Milestone

    South Carolina DPH reported 789 cases, surpassing Texas's 762-case outbreak to become the largest U.S. measles outbreak since elimination was achieved in 2000. The state added more than 600 cases in January 2026 alone, with cases linked to California, North Carolina, and Washington.

  23. Senator Proposes Remote Learning for Unvaccinated Students

    Policy

    South Carolina State Senator Josh Kimbrell, representing Spartanburg County, sent a letter to local school leaders calling the measles outbreak a 'public health crisis' and advocating for remote learning options for unvaccinated students to protect others. More than 700 of the 789 cases were in unvaccinated individuals or those who had not received both recommended MMR doses.

  24. South Carolina Outbreak Reaches 700 Cases

    Outbreak

    South Carolina DPH reported 700 total cases in the Spartanburg County outbreak, adding 54 cases in three days. The state accounts for 81% of 2026 U.S. cases, with 485 people in quarantine and new exposures identified at five elementary schools.

  25. One-Year Threshold Passed

    Milestone

    The U.S. passed one year and two days since continuous measles transmission began, triggering the formal process for potential loss of elimination status. CDC's principal deputy director called potential loss 'the cost of doing business.'

  26. U.S. Confirms 416 Cases in First 22 Days of 2026

    Milestone

    CDC confirmed 416 measles cases nationwide in 2026—an increase of 245 infections in one week, averaging 19 cases per day. Cases reported across 14 jurisdictions including South Carolina, North Carolina, California, and Washington.

  27. PAHO Schedules Review Meeting

    Official Action

    PAHO announced an April 13, 2026 meeting to review the measles elimination status of the United States and Mexico.

  28. Vaccine Schedule Revised

    Policy

    Following a presidential memorandum, CDC reduced recommended childhood vaccines from 18 to 11 diseases. MMR remained on the core schedule.

  29. Abraham Appointed CDC Deputy

    Personnel

    Ralph Abraham, Louisiana's surgeon general who had ordered his state to stop vaccine promotion campaigns, was sworn in as CDC's principal deputy director.

  30. Americas Loses Regional Elimination Status

    Milestone

    PAHO announced the Americas had lost regional measles elimination status after Canada exceeded 12 months of continuous transmission. The region had first achieved this status in 2016.

  31. South Carolina Outbreak Begins

    Outbreak

    South Carolina DPH confirmed a new measles outbreak in the Upstate region around Spartanburg County.

  32. Texas Outbreak Declared Over

    Milestone

    Texas DSHS declared the West Texas outbreak over after 762 confirmed cases. The source of the initial infection was never identified.

  33. Kennedy Endorses MMR Vaccine

    Statement

    HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated the MMR vaccine is 'the most effective way to prevent the spread of measles,' drawing criticism from anti-vaccine supporters.

  34. Second Child Death

    Death

    An unvaccinated eight-year-old girl died of measles pulmonary failure in Lubbock, Texas. Neither child had underlying health conditions.

  35. New Mexico Adult Death

    Death

    An unvaccinated adult in Lea County, New Mexico died after contracting measles.

  36. First Child Death

    Death

    An unvaccinated six-year-old girl died of measles-related pneumonia in Lubbock, Texas—the first U.S. measles death since 2015.

  37. Texas Declares Outbreak

    Official Action

    Texas DSHS officially declared a measles outbreak in Gaines County after identifying six cases in unvaccinated school-aged children.

  38. West Texas Outbreak Begins

    Outbreak

    A child in Gaines County, Texas developed the telltale measles rash, marking what PAHO would later designate as the start of continuous U.S. transmission.

  39. Americas Declared Measles-Free

    Milestone

    PAHO declared the Americas the first WHO region to eliminate endemic measles transmission.

  40. U.S. Declared Measles-Free

    Milestone

    CDC convened an expert panel that concluded measles elimination criteria had been met. The U.S. became the first country in the Western Hemisphere to achieve this status.

Scenarios

1

U.S. Stripped of Elimination Status at April Review

Likely

Discussed by: Dr. Andrew Pavia (CDC consultant), PAHO officials, multiple epidemiologists

PAHO's April 13 meeting concludes the U.S. had continuous transmission for 12+ months and revokes elimination status. CDC consultant Andrew Pavia said 'the case for this not being continuous transmission is tenuous' and expects this outcome. The U.S. would join Venezuela and Brazil as countries that lost and must regain elimination status—a process that took Brazil five years.

2

Transmission Ruled Discontinuous, Status Preserved

Unlikely

Discussed by: CDC officials

CDC analysis determines the various outbreaks represent separate introductions rather than a single continuous transmission chain. PAHO accepts this interpretation and maintains U.S. elimination status. This outcome would require demonstrating that the West Texas, South Carolina, and other outbreaks had distinct viral lineages and no epidemiological links.

3

Status Lost, Regained Within 2-3 Years

Possible

Discussed by: PAHO, public health policy analysts

The U.S. loses status but mounts a coordinated federal-state vaccination campaign similar to responses in Brazil and Venezuela. South Carolina outbreak contained by spring 2026, and with 12 months of no endemic transmission plus surveillance, the U.S. is reverified by 2028-2029. This mirrors Brazil's five-year path from loss to reinstatement.

4

Prolonged Endemic Measles Returns

Possible

Discussed by: Dr. Peter Hotez, Dr. Paul Offit, public health researchers

Declining vaccination rates and weakened public health infrastructure prevent the U.S. from regaining elimination status. Measles becomes endemic again as it was before 2000, with thousands of annual cases. Dr. Hotez has warned that the 'ecosystem' that eliminated measles has fundamentally changed, and this trajectory requires sustained vaccination above 95%—a threshold the country has not met since 2019.

5

Pennsylvania Outbreak Contained by Spring 2027

Possible Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

Discussed by: CDC, Pennsylvania Department of Health

The vaccination surge in Pennsylvania (about 53,000 MMR doses in September, double the monthly norm) and CDC's Epi-Aid deployment slow transmission in Lancaster and Mifflin counties. If case counts decline through winter, the outbreak could be declared over by spring 2027, mirroring Texas's 2025 timeline.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1989-1991

U.S. Measles Resurgence (1989-1991)

After a decade of relatively few cases, measles resurged dramatically. Over 55,000 people fell ill and 123 died—most of them preschool children in inner-city areas. New York City alone recorded 5,000 cases and 21 deaths. Budget cuts to federal vaccination programs during the Reagan administration had allowed immunization rates to drop.

Then

CDC changed its recommendation to require a second MMR dose before school entry. President Clinton pledged to raise childhood immunization rates.

Now

Congress created the Vaccines for Children program in 1993, and federal funding increased from $37 million in 1990 to $261 million by 1995. Measles was declared eliminated in 2000.

Why this matters now

The 1989-1991 outbreak showed how quickly measles returns when vaccination infrastructure erodes. The U.S. recorded 2,289 cases in 2025 and 4,588 in 2026 through October 22, its highest counts since that era.

December 2014 - April 2015

Disneyland Outbreak (2014-2015)

An unvaccinated child visited Disneyland in Anaheim during the Christmas holiday. The outbreak spread to 131 Californians and 159 people in Quebec, Canada. Genetic sequencing linked the virus to a strain circulating in the Philippines. Twenty percent of U.S. cases required hospitalization.

Then

California passed Senate Bill 277, eliminating personal belief exemptions for school vaccinations. Media coverage focused on the consequences of vaccine refusal.

Now

The 'Disneyland effect' temporarily increased vaccination rates in some communities. However, exemption rates nationally have since climbed from 1.9% in 2020-2021 to 3.1% in 2023-2024.

Why this matters now

The Disneyland outbreak showed how a single infected visitor could spark multi-state transmission in under-vaccinated communities. The current South Carolina outbreak—spreading to North Carolina and Washington state via holiday travel—follows a similar pattern at larger scale.

July 2018 - February 2019

Brazil and Venezuela Lose Elimination Status (2018-2019)

Venezuela lost elimination status in July 2018 after an outbreak spread from the country's collapsing healthcare system. Brazil followed in February 2019 after recording 20,901 cases, including 17,816 in São Paulo state. Both countries had achieved elimination in 2016 as part of PAHO's regional declaration.

Then

PAHO provided technical assistance and intensified vaccination campaigns in affected areas.

Now

Venezuela regained elimination status in 2023 after four years. Brazil took five years, regaining status in 2024. The region briefly recovered elimination before Canada's outbreak in 2024-2025.

Why this matters now

These precedents show elimination status is recoverable but requires sustained effort over multiple years. Brazil's five-year timeline from loss to reinstatement offers a realistic benchmark for U.S. recovery if status is revoked in April.

Sources

(57)