Measles infected an estimated 15.6 million children under five in 2023, up 40% from 11.1 million in 2019, according to a Global Burden of Disease study published in Nature Medicine. The rise reversed most of a nearly 80% decline recorded between 1990 and 2019.
The coverage gaps behind that rebound are still open. New York reported its first measles-associated child death in more than 30 years, and US cases have passed 4,500 this year. In Bangladesh, the largest current outbreak, a government review found just 82% of children fully immunised and about 40% of vaccinator posts vacant.
Why it matters
Measles spreads through the air so easily that any unvaccinated child keeps an outbreak alive, and outbreaks now cross borders.
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Key Indicators
15.6M
Measles cases in children under 5, 2023
Up from 11.1 million in 2019, a 40% jump (Global Burden of Disease study).
118,000
Estimated deaths in children under 5, 2023
Up 12% from 2019, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
81%
Global first-dose measles vaccine coverage, 2023
Down from 83.6% in 2019; the WHO's target is 90%.
56,753
Confirmed measles cases in the Americas, 2026
Reported through epidemiological week 41, a 4.8-fold rise on the same weeks of 2025; 81 deaths.
1,222
Deaths in Bangladesh's measles outbreak
Measles-like illness deaths since mid-March 2026, with 195,514 suspected patients hospitalised.
92.4%
US kindergarten MMR coverage, 2025-26
Down from 95.2% in 2019-20, below the 95% threshold needed to stop transmission.
96%
Australasia second-dose coverage, 2023
Highest of any region; Australia and New Zealand lead the world.
4,852
US confirmed measles cases, 2026
CDC tally through October 30, including three confirmed deaths.
82%
Bangladesh children fully immunised
Government review found coverage well below the 95% target, with about 40% of vaccinator posts vacant.
17 events
Latest: November 2026
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November 2026
New York reports first measles child death in 30 years
LatestOutbreak
New York's first measles-associated child death in more than 30 years came as the state's case count reached 210 through October 31. Governor Kathy Hochul said the death showed what is at stake when progress on protecting Americans from preventable disease erodes.
October 2026
CDC counts 4,852 US measles cases
Outbreak
The CDC's tally through October 30 included three confirmed deaths. Pennsylvania reported 1,433 cases and five measles-associated deaths, the most of any state.
Global outbreak ranking puts Bangladesh, Indonesia and Guatemala on top
Report
Euronews reported Bangladesh with 65,430 cases, Indonesia with 46,578 and Guatemala with 31,222. The ECDC kept its risk assessment for Europe at moderate for infants and immunocompromised people.
Bangladesh review finds 82% immunisation coverage
Report
A 70-member team backed by the WHO, UNICEF and Gavi found just 82% of children fully immunised, below the 95% target, and about 40% of vaccinator posts vacant. Bangladesh has recorded more than 1,200 child deaths in the outbreak.
University of Queensland experts warn of falling local rates
Announcement
UQ releases its findings; Queensland doctors warn hospitals are seeing measles cases and state vaccination rates are the lowest in Australia.
PAHO reports 56,753 measles cases in the Americas this year
Report
Seventeen countries and territories recorded 4.8 times the cases seen in the same weeks of 2025, with 81 deaths, 53 of them in Guatemala. PAHO warned that low-level 'drop-by-drop' transmission could re-establish endemic spread.
Third US measles death of 2026 reported
Outbreak
Al Jazeera reported the third US measles death of the year on 22 October. New York governor Kathy Hochul had declared a state disaster emergency on 5 October, widening who may vaccinate and test for measles.
GBD study documents 40% surge in under-5 measles
Research
Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis published in Nature Medicine quantifies the post-COVID resurgence across 204 countries.
US measles cases pass 4,500, more than double 2025
Outbreak
The CDC's latest weekly update counted 4,588 confirmed cases and 43 outbreaks, with 17% of cases in children under five and 10% of all cases hospitalised. Pennsylvania alone reported 1,338 cases across 44 counties.
CDC declines to validate high-volume measles test
Policy
California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington asked the CDC in May to validate a rapid, high-volume measles test. The agency declined, citing competing priorities, according to a letter from the West Coast Health Alliance.
Bangladesh outbreak death toll reaches 1,222
Outbreak
Bangladesh has hospitalised 195,514 suspected measles patients since 15 March 2026, the Directorate General of Health Services said; 187,605 have been discharged. The WHO counted about 202,000 suspected cases to 9 October.
2026
US kindergarten MMR coverage falls to 92.4%
Coverage
CDC school-year data shows coverage below the 95% threshold needed to stop transmission, with exemptions at 4.2%.
September 2025
US records 1,523 measles cases, highest since 1992
Outbreak
Cases spread across 42 US jurisdictions; 92% were unvaccinated or of unknown status, per the CDC.
November 2024
WHO and CDC report cases up 20% in a year
Report
Agencies estimate 10.3 million global measles cases in 2023 (all ages), up from 8.6 million in 2022, with 107,500 deaths.
2023
Under-5 cases hit 15.6 million, deaths 118,000
Surge
The GBD 2023 study estimates cases rose 40% and deaths 12% from 2019, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Global measles cases in children under five reach an estimated 11.1 million, down about 80% from 1990.
Scenarios
1
Catch-up campaigns stall the resurgence
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2027
Discussed by: WHO and CDC officials; GBD study researchers
Countries restore routine immunization, run catch-up campaigns targeting children who missed doses, and MCV1 coverage climbs toward 85-90% by 2026-27. Under-5 cases fall year over year. The key test is whether funding and political attention hold in low-income countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
2
High-income countries lose measles elimination
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2028
Discussed by: CDC; infectious disease physicians such as Paul Griffin
US kindergarten coverage at 92.4% and rising exemptions leave immunity gaps that sustained transmission can exploit. New York reported its first measles-associated child death in more than 30 years in November 2026. If coverage stays below 95%, measles regains an endemic foothold and the US loses the elimination status it held since 2000.
3
Coverage plateaus and measles persists at elevated levels
Likely
Resolves by Nov 30, 2027
Discussed by: Global health researchers
Coverage stalls below both the 90% IA2030 target and the 95% herd-immunity threshold. Measles continues circulating at a million-plus cases a year, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with intermittent outbreaks elsewhere. The surge neither collapses nor reverses.
4
The Americas lose measles elimination a second time
Possible
Resolves by Q3 2027
Discussed by: Pan American Health Organization
PAHO says transmission is falling in some countries, with Rt below 1, but sporadic chains of infection can keep the virus circulating for more than 12 months. If those chains hold, the region risks re-establishing endemic transmission and losing the elimination status it first won in 2016 and lost in 2019.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1989-1991
US measles resurgence (1989-1991)
The US recorded about 55,000 measles cases and 123 deaths, concentrated among unvaccinated preschool children in poor urban areas. Coverage had stagnated near 60-80% because vaccination cost money many families could not pay.
Then
The outbreak prompted the federal Vaccines for Children program in 1993, which provided free vaccines to uninsured children. Coverage climbed above 90% within years.
Now
Measles was declared eliminated in the US in 2000, a status now under pressure again.
Why this matters now
It shows coverage gaps in a wealthy country become large outbreaks, and that targeted federal policy can close them.
2 of 3
October-December 2019
Samoa measles epidemic (2019)
In Samoa, vaccination coverage collapsed to about 31% after two nurses mixed the vaccine with anesthetic, killing two infants and triggering an intense antivaccination backlash. Within months, measles swept the country: over 5,700 cases and 83 deaths in a population of about 200,000.
Then
The epidemic killed more than one in 200 Samoans infected, mostly infants, and forced a government-led emergency vaccination campaign.
Now
It became a global case study in how misinformation can crater immunization coverage fast.
Why this matters now
Shows misinformation can undo years of vaccination progress in a matter of months.
3 of 3
2016-2018
Americas lose measles elimination status (2016-2018)
In 2016 the WHO declared the Americas the first region to eliminate measles. Within two years, large outbreaks in Venezuela and Brazil, fueled by collapsing health systems and falling vaccine coverage, cost the region its status.
Then
The Americas became re-endemic; Venezuela's economic crisis had disrupted its vaccination program.
Now
Elimination proved fragile, a lesson now playing out globally as cases rebound after 2019.
Why this matters now
Shows how quickly verified elimination can be lost when health systems break.
