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U.S. and Hungary sign nuclear energy partnership

U.S. and Hungary sign nuclear energy partnership

Rule Changes

Washington offers Budapest an alternative to Russian fuel and technology

February 16th, 2026: U.S.-Hungary Nuclear Agreement Signed

Overview

For decades, Hungary has relied almost entirely on Russia for nuclear fuel, natural gas, and oil—a dependency that persisted even as the rest of Europe scrambled to cut ties after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. On February 16, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó signed an agreement that begins to change that: Hungary can now purchase up to 10 American-built small modular reactors worth as much as $20 billion, and will start receiving Westinghouse fuel for its Russian-built Paks I plant by 2028.

The deal marks the largest potential U.S. civil nuclear export to a NATO ally in decades. But it arrives amid unusual circumstances: Hungary is still building a new Russian nuclear plant (Paks II, with Rosatom construction that began in early 2025), Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his toughest election in 16 years this April, and the Trump administration granted Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions just three months ago. Whether this agreement represents genuine energy diversification or a hedging strategy remains an open question.

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Key Indicators

$20B
Potential SMR Deal Value
Maximum value of up to 10 small modular reactors Hungary may purchase from American companies
$114M
Westinghouse Fuel Contract
Value of nuclear fuel supply agreement for Hungary's Paks I plant, beginning deliveries in 2028
40%
Paks I Electricity Share
Portion of Hungary's electricity generated by its existing Russian-built nuclear plant
€10B
Paks II Russian Loan
Russian state loan financing 80% of Hungary's new Rosatom-built nuclear plant

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People Involved

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Signed the agreement in Budapest on February 16, 2026
 Péter Szijjártó
Péter Szijjártó
Co-signatory of the nuclear cooperation agreement
 Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán
Facing April 2026 election with opposition leading in polls
 Péter Magyar
Péter Magyar
Leading in polls ahead of April 2026 election

Organizations Involved

Westinghouse Electric Company
Westinghouse Electric Company
Nuclear Technology Company
Primary American partner for fuel supply and potential SMR deployment

American nuclear energy company that will supply fuel for Hungary's Paks I plant and may provide small modular reactor technology.
Rosatom
Rosatom
Russian state nuclear corporation
Building Paks II nuclear plant; fuel supplier until 2028

Russian state nuclear corporation currently building Hungary's Paks II plant with two VVER-1200 reactors.

Timeline

  1. U.S.-Hungary Nuclear Agreement Signed

    Agreement

    Secretary of State Rubio and Foreign Minister Szijjártó sign civil nuclear cooperation agreement enabling Hungary to purchase American SMRs and nuclear fuel technology.

  2. Opposition Leader Magyar Launches Campaign

    Political

    Péter Magyar's Tisza party launches election campaign, vowing to restore Hungary's Western orientation eight weeks before the April 12 vote.

  3. Orbán Meets Trump at White House

    Diplomatic

    Hungarian Prime Minister secures one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions and signs nuclear cooperation MOU, including intent to purchase up to 10 SMRs.

  4. Westinghouse Fuel Deal Announced

    Agreement

    Hungary's MVM Group and Westinghouse announce $114 million contract for VVER-440 fuel deliveries to Paks I beginning in 2028.

  5. Paks II Construction Begins

    Construction

    Rosatom pours first concrete for Paks II, making it the first Russian nuclear construction project launched in an EU member state during the Ukraine war.

  6. EU Selects Westinghouse to Lead VVER Fuel Consortium

    Agreement

    European Union chooses Westinghouse-led consortium (APIS) to develop alternative fuel supply for Russian-designed VVER reactors, with €10 million in Euratom funding.

  7. Russia Invades Ukraine

    Geopolitical

    Russia's full-scale invasion accelerates European efforts to reduce energy dependence on Moscow. Hungary's reliance on Russian oil subsequently increased from 61% to 86%.

  8. Hungary and Russia Sign Paks II Agreement

    Agreement

    Hungary and Russia sign intergovernmental agreement for Rosatom to build two VVER-1200 reactors, backed by a €10 billion Russian loan financing 80% of the project.

Scenarios

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1

Hungary Deploys American SMRs, Reduces Russian Dependence

Hungary follows through on purchasing multiple small modular reactors, Westinghouse fuel deliveries proceed on schedule, and by the early 2030s Hungary has meaningfully diversified its nuclear energy supply away from Russian sources. This would require sustained political will regardless of the April 2026 election outcome and continued U.S. government support for nuclear exports.

Discussed by: U.S. State Department, Heritage Foundation, Hungarian Conservative media
Consensus —
2

Deal Stalls as Political Winds Shift

The agreement remains a framework without implementation. If Orbán loses the April election, a new government may deprioritize American SMRs in favor of EU-backed alternatives. If Orbán wins, Hungary may continue deepening ties with Russia while using the U.S. deal primarily for leverage and optics. The $20 billion potential value never materializes beyond the initial Westinghouse fuel contract.

Discussed by: European analysts, Responsible Statecraft, Balkan Insight
Consensus —
3

Hungary Becomes Dual-Source Nuclear Power

Hungary successfully operates a mixed nuclear portfolio: Paks II comes online with Russian technology and fuel, while Westinghouse supplies fuel for Paks I and eventually builds one or more SMRs. Budapest maintains strategic relationships with both Washington and Moscow, using energy diversification to maximize its negotiating position with both powers.

Discussed by: World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Engineering International
Consensus —

Historical Context

Atoms for Peace (1953)

December 1953

What Happened

President Dwight Eisenhower addressed the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal to share nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The speech launched a massive program of bilateral cooperation agreements, leading to the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency in 1957 and the spread of civilian nuclear technology to dozens of countries.

Outcome

Short Term

The U.S. signed cooperation agreements with allies worldwide and began exporting reactors and nuclear expertise.

Long Term

Established the framework for U.S. civil nuclear diplomacy that persists today, including Section 123 agreements governing nuclear exports.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Hungary agreement represents a return to Atoms for Peace-era ambitions: using civil nuclear cooperation to strengthen alliances and counter rival powers. The State Department has explicitly cited Eisenhower's program as precedent for current efforts in Poland, Romania, and now Hungary.

Ukraine's Nuclear Fuel Diversification (2001-2022)

2001-2022

What Happened

Ukraine began working with Westinghouse in 2001 to develop alternative fuel for its Soviet-designed VVER reactors. Progress was slow until Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, after which Ukraine accelerated purchases of American fuel. By 2022, Ukraine had significantly reduced its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel.

Outcome

Short Term

After Russia's 2022 invasion, Ukraine announced it would end all Russian nuclear fuel purchases permanently.

Long Term

Westinghouse gained critical experience manufacturing VVER-compatible fuel, enabling it to offer alternatives to other countries with Russian-designed plants.

Why It's Relevant Today

Ukraine's two-decade diversification effort demonstrates both that switching away from Russian nuclear fuel is technically feasible and that it requires sustained political commitment. Hungary is beginning this process much later and with less geopolitical urgency.

Poland's Westinghouse Nuclear Deal (2022)

October 2022

What Happened

Poland selected Westinghouse to build its first nuclear power plant using three AP1000 reactors—the first major U.S. civil nuclear construction contract in Europe in decades. The deal was valued at approximately $20 billion, similar in scale to Hungary's potential SMR purchases.

Outcome

Short Term

The agreement accelerated Poland's pivot away from coal and reduced its exposure to Russian energy pressure.

Long Term

Established a template for U.S. civil nuclear cooperation in Central Europe, with the State Department subsequently signing similar agreements with Romania and Bulgaria.

Why It's Relevant Today

Poland's deal shows what full commitment to U.S. nuclear partnership looks like: new-build reactors, not just fuel diversification. Hungary's agreement is more modest—it focuses on fuel supply for existing plants and potential future SMRs rather than immediate large-scale construction.

Sources

(10)
+4
The Washington Post Fox News Bloomberg France 24 U.S. Department of State World Nuclear News World Nuclear Association Westinghouse Electric Company Atlantic Council World Nuclear News