America builds Western mineral alliance against Chinese dominance

Overview

China controls roughly two-thirds of global rare earth mining and about 90 percent of processing—a concentration the United States now treats as a national security threat. On February 4, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened ministers from 54 countries in Washington to unveil America's answer: a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals backed by price floors, billions in financing, and a new coordinating body called FORGE.

Argentina joined the alliance that day, signing a framework agreement that positions it as a key Western Hemisphere supplier of lithium, copper, and rare earths. The deal represents the culmination of 18 months of bilateral negotiations, with the United States now holding critical minerals pacts with 21 nations. President Milei's investment incentives have already attracted $31 billion in announced mining projects, and the US agreement opens access to American financing and a market hungry to bypass Chinese supply chains.

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Key Indicators

Countries at Ministerial

Nations represented at the February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington

90%

China's Processing Share

China's share of global rare earth processing—the chokepoint the alliance aims to break

$31B

Argentina Mining Investment

Total mining investments announced in Argentina under Milei's RIGI incentive program

US Bilateral Agreements

Total critical minerals agreements signed by the United States through February 2026

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People Involved

Marco Rubio

Leading US critical minerals diplomacy

Pablo Quirno

Signed critical minerals framework with United States

Javier Milei

Driving pro-mining economic reforms

Organizations Involved

Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE)

International Coordinating Body

Newly launched, chaired by South Korea through June 2026

US-led alliance to coordinate critical mineral policy, pricing, and project development among partner nations.

U.S. Department of State

Federal Department

Leading critical minerals diplomacy

Primary US agency executing critical minerals bilateral agreements and the FORGE initiative.

Timeline

54-Nation Critical Minerals Ministerial Convenes
Diplomatic Summit

Secretary Rubio hosts ministers from 54 countries and the European Commission in Washington. Administration unveils FORGE initiative and Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic reserve.
February 4th, 2026
Argentina Signs Framework Agreement
Agreement

Foreign Minister Quirno signs Framework Instrument for Strengthening Critical Minerals Supply, making Argentina a key Western Hemisphere partner in the US alliance.
February 4th, 2026
11 New Bilateral Agreements Announced
Agreement

US signs frameworks with Argentina, Cook Islands, Ecuador, Guinea, Morocco, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, UAE, and Uzbekistan, bringing total agreements to 21.
February 4th, 2026
US-Japan Rare Earths Pact Signed
Agreement

Tokyo and Washington formalize framework covering cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel with $20+ billion in announced project financing.
October 27th, 2025
US-Australia $8.5B Framework Announced
Agreement

Trump and Albanese unveil America's largest international minerals partnership, including $3 billion in joint government investment and Pentagon support for Australian gallium refinery.
October 20th, 2025
US-Argentina Sign Initial Minerals MOU
Agreement

Foreign Minister Diana Mondino and US Under Secretary José Fernández sign memorandum of understanding on critical minerals cooperation in Buenos Aires.
August 22nd, 2024

Scenarios

Predict which scenario wins. Contrarian picks score more — points lock in when the scenario resolves.

Predictions leaderboard

FORGE Bloc Establishes Price Floors, Western Mining Investment Surges

If FORGE successfully implements enforceable price floors, Western mining projects become economically viable again. Argentina's $31 billion in committed investments translate into operational mines by 2030, Chinese market share in processing drops to 80% by decade's end. This scenario requires sustained political commitment across multiple US administrations and cooperation from price-sensitive consumer nations.

Discussed by: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations analysts

Consensus —

China Retaliates with Export Controls, Supply Crisis Erupts

Beijing responds to FORGE by restricting rare earth exports, repeating its 2010 playbook against Japan but at global scale. Prices spike, Western manufacturers scramble, and political pressure builds to negotiate directly with China. Argentina and other new suppliers cannot scale quickly enough to fill the gap, exposing the decade-long timeline required to actually diversify supply chains.

Discussed by: Chatham House, Carnegie Endowment analysts, Financial Times

Consensus —

Alliance Fragments Over Competing Interests

Developing producer nations resist price floors that benefit US consumers, while allies like Japan and South Korea prioritize cheap inputs over supply security. Without binding commitments, FORGE becomes a talking shop. Argentina continues attracting Chinese and Western investment alike, hedging between blocs rather than choosing sides.

Discussed by: Natural Resource Governance Institute, trade policy specialists

Consensus —

Argentina Becomes Top-Five Copper Producer by 2035

Milei's RIGI framework survives political transition, and four major greenfield copper projects in San Juan province reach production. Argentina joins Chile and Peru in the top tier of global copper suppliers, producing over one million tons annually. Combined with its lithium output, Argentina becomes the most important minerals partner in the Western Hemisphere.

Discussed by: Mining.com, JP Morgan commodity analysts, Glencore executives

Consensus —

Historical Context

China's Rare Earth Embargo Against Japan (2010)

September-November 2010

What Happened

Following a territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands, China halted rare earth exports to Japan for approximately two months. Japan, which sourced 90% of its rare earths from China, saw its automotive, electronics, and defense industries thrown into panic. Prices for some rare earth elements rose tenfold within a year.

Outcome

Short Term

Japanese companies stockpiled rare earths, exacerbating a price bubble that lasted over a year. China denied implementing a formal embargo.

Long Term

Japan invested heavily in alternative suppliers, backing the emergence of Lynas (Australia) and Malaysian processing facilities. Tokyo pioneered recycling and substitution technologies that reduced rare earth dependency by 50% in some applications.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2010 episode proved China would weaponize mineral supply. It also showed that diversification is possible but requires a decade of sustained investment—the timeline the current US alliance must navigate.

OPEC Oil Embargo (1973-1974)

October 1973 - March 1974

What Happened

Arab OPEC members embargoed oil exports to the United States in retaliation for American support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Global oil prices quadrupled from $3 to $12 per barrel. American consumers faced gas rationing and long lines at filling stations.

Outcome

Short Term

The embargo triggered a global recession and reshaped US foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Long Term

The US created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (1975), imposed fuel efficiency standards, and launched decades of energy independence efforts. OPEC's coordination demonstrated that resource-rich nations could reshape global markets.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Trump administration explicitly cites the SPR as a model for Project Vault, its $12 billion critical minerals reserve. The parallel suggests Washington views Chinese mineral dominance as analogous to 1970s oil dependence—a strategic vulnerability requiring decades of policy response.

US Inflation Reduction Act Mineral Requirements (2022)

August 2022

What Happened

The Biden administration's signature climate law included requirements that electric vehicle tax credits depend on sourcing critical minerals from the US or free trade agreement partners—not from China or Russia. By 2027, 80% of battery minerals must come from friendly nations.

Outcome

Short Term

Automakers scrambled to restructure supply chains. The administration negotiated minerals-specific trade deals with Japan, the EU, and others that bypassed traditional free trade agreements.

Long Term

The IRA created permanent market incentives for non-Chinese mineral supply, making the current diplomatic push commercially necessary rather than purely strategic.

Why It's Relevant Today

Argentina's new framework positions it to supply minerals that qualify for IRA tax credits, making the agreement immediately valuable to American automakers and battery manufacturers.