U.S. propane exports hit a record 2.2 million barrels a day in September, after averaging 2 million barrels a day in the first half of 2026, 11% more than a year earlier. The shipments are pulling down storage: stocks fell to 105.8 million barrels in the week ended October 16, the lowest since early August.
Gulf Coast propane sold for $1.0925 a gallon on October 22, near the highest since September 2022. India's state refiners sought 2.75 million metric tons of U.S. liquefied petroleum gas for 2027, and offers on that tender expired October 22 without an award. The UAE still overtook the U.S. as India's top supplier in September.
Why it matters
Record exports are draining U.S. propane stocks before winter, and Gulf Coast prices are already near their highest since 2022.
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Key Indicators
2.2 million b/d
September 2026 propane exports
Record monthly high, lifted by European shipments. Asia remained the largest destination.
11%
Year-over-year export growth
First half 2026 vs. first half 2025.
105.8 million bbl
U.S. propane inventories, week to Oct. 16
Down 500,000 barrels to the lowest level since early August.
$1.09/gal
Gulf Coast propane, Oct. 22 assessment
$1.0925 a gallon, one of the highest since September 2022.
-19%
U.S. propane exports to China
First half 2026 vs. same period in 2025, with Beijing's 10% tariff in place.
2.75 million mt
India's 2027 term-tender target
State refiners sought 25% more than the 2.2 million tons sought for 2026; offers expired October 22.
27%
Japan's share of October U.S. propane loadings
Largest single destination for the month, with China second at 17%.
39%
UAE's share of India's LPG imports in September
The UAE overtook the U.S. as India's top supplier as Gulf shipments rebounded.
17 events
Latest: October 22nd, 2026 · 3 weeks ago
Showing 8 of 17
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October 2026
Gulf Coast propane near highest since 2022
LatestMarket
Platts assessed U.S. Gulf Coast propane at $1.0925 a gallon on October 22, one of the highest prices since September 2022. Japan took about 27% of U.S. propane loadings in October and China 17%.
Butane premium over propane hits four-month high
Market
Platts assessed CFR North Asia propane at $977.50 a metric ton and butane at $1,057.50 on October 19, as winter blending demand and Middle East supply disruption tightened butane and pushed Indian buyers toward U.S. cargoes.
Inventories fall to 105.8 million barrels
Data
U.S. propane and propylene stocks dropped 500,000 barrels to 105.846 million barrels in the week ended October 16, the lowest since early August, as exports ran near record levels.
September exports set record 2.2 million b/d
Data
U.S. propane exports rose to a record 2.2 million barrels a day in September, up from August on stronger European shipments, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. Premiums for Gulf Coast propane and butane over Mt. Belvieu prices more than doubled to 10.8 cents a gallon.
Exports rebound to 2.46 million b/d
Data
U.S. propane exports rose 795,000 b/d to 2.46 million b/d in the week ended October 2, nearly reversing the prior week's decline. Inventories drew 1.8 million barrels to 107.8 million, a larger draw than expected.
EIA reports record first-half exports
Report
EIA's Today in Energy says H1 2026 exports averaged 2 million b/d, up 11% year over year.
September 2026
U.S. propane inventories hit record 109.6 million barrels
Data
Stocks in the week ended September 25 rose to 109.6 million barrels, a record, with Gulf Coast inventories at an all-time high of 70.4 million barrels.
India PSUs launch 2027 U.S. LPG tender
Procurement
Bharat Petroleum, Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum seek 2.75 million metric tons of U.S. propane and butane for 2027, up 25% from the 2.2 million tons sought for 2026. The tender closed October 8; offers were valid until October 22.
UAE overtakes US as India's top LPG supplier
Data
The UAE supplied 547,000 tonnes of LPG to India in September, up 182% from August, overtaking the U.S. which had led for six months. U.S. shipments fell 58% to 323,000 tonnes.
China propane prices hit 10-year high
Market
China's propane market hit 7,816 yuan per ton in mid-September, a 10-year high, as Middle East tensions and Panama Canal drought tightened import supply.
August 2026
China's U.S. LPG arrivals recover above seasonal average
Data
U.S. LPG arrivals in China hit about 530,000 b/d in August 2026, above the five-year seasonal average. Bonded-storage processing let buyers avoid much of the 11% duty.
April 2026
Record 2.1 million b/d in April
Milestone
Monthly exports peak at 2.1 million barrels per day, the highest ever, led by India and South Asia.
March 2026
U.S. becomes India's top LPG supplier
Milestone
The U.S. was India's largest LPG supplier for several straight months starting in March 2026, before the UAE overtook it in September.
May 2025
China cuts tariff back to 10%
Policy
Beijing returns the tariff to 10%, where it has stayed since.
April 2025
China raises tariff to 125% for April
Policy
Tariff spikes to 125% for the month of April before falling back.
February 2025
China imposes 10% tariff on U.S. propane
Policy
Beijing adds a 10% tariff on propane imports from the United States, cutting demand for U.S. exports.
November 2024
November 2024 exports stay below 2 million b/d
Milestone
The EIA's October 2026 report states U.S. propane exports surpassed 2 million b/d for the first time in April 2026. Exports in November 2024 were below that level.
Scenarios
1
Export growth stalls at capacity limits
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: EIA's Today in Energy report flags export capacity limits
Record volumes keep climbing but run into infrastructure bottlenecks. The Enterprise expansion adds 300,000 b/d, yet if demand keeps rising, terminal capacity and Panama Canal transits limit growth. U.S. heating demand in winter also competes for the same product, potentially easing export totals as domestic buyers outbid overseas customers.
2
China lifts propane tariffs, U.S. exports rebound
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2027
Discussed by: The Tribune and EIA note China's tariff as the key variable
If Beijing drops the 10% tariff, Chinese buyers who took 32% of U.S. propane imports in 2024 could return. That would restore a major market and potentially push total exports higher. Trade flows would shift again, with China competing with India for U.S. supply.
3
Panama Canal drought chokes off the Asia trade
Possible
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Discussed by: EIA cites ongoing Panama Canal drought constraints
Low water levels at Gatun Lake limit daily ship transits, raising freight costs and delaying deliveries. If drought returns, exporters reroute around South America, adding about two weeks to voyages and cutting into margins. That would raise costs for India and other Asian buyers and could slow export growth.
4
India's 2027 U.S. LPG tender cements the trade shift
Deadline passed (Oct 22, 2026)
Discussed by: OPIS, which reported the tender
India's state buyers are asking for 2.75 million metric tons of U.S. propane and butane for 2027, 25% more than this year. If awarded, the volumes lock in the U.S.-India relationship for another year and keep U.S. export terminals busy. Delays or price disputes could push part of the volume to Middle East suppliers.
5
Bonded storage lets China keep buying U.S. propane through the tariff
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Vortexa
Chinese buyers moved about 28% of U.S.-origin propane through bonded storage and processing trade in January-July 2026, up from 16% in all of 2025. That lets them dodge most of the 11% duty on U.S. propane. If the share keeps climbing, China could stay a major buyer without Beijing lifting the tariff.
6
Middle East supply rebounds, competing with U.S. in India
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Kpler shipping data, Moneycontrol
The UAE overtook the U.S. as India's top LPG supplier in September, supplying 547,000 tonnes, up 182% from August. If Gulf exports keep recovering, India could split its purchases between U.S. and Gulf suppliers, slowing U.S. export growth to India.
7
U.S. propane stocks fall below 100 million barrels before winter
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: S&P Global's October 22 price assessment, which put inventories at their lowest since early August
Stocks fell to 105.8 million barrels in the week ended October 16 while exports ran near record levels. If draws continue at that pace, storage could break 100 million barrels before the heating season peaks, putting U.S. heating customers in direct competition with export buyers for the same barrels.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
August 2018 - May 2020
U.S.-China propane tariff war (2018-2020)
Beijing slapped a 26% retaliatory tariff on U.S. propane in 2018 during the first trade war. Chinese buyers shifted to Iran, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In 2020, China waived the tariff, and American volumes surged back.
Then
U.S. propane exports to China collapsed, then recovered sharply after the waiver.
Now
Proved Chinese buyers can switch suppliers quickly and return just as fast when tariffs lift. U.S. propane exports to China recovered sharply after the 2020 waiver.
Why this matters now
The current 10% tariff is the same lever. It already cut U.S. exports to China by 28% in 2025, and the trade shifted toward India rather than reversing the export boom.
2 of 2
January-February 2014
Midwest propane shortage (winter 2013-14)
A brutal cold snap hit the U.S. Midwest in January 2014 as propane supplies were already tight. Rising export volumes and strong petrochemical demand left storage thin, and prices spiked sharply higher.
Then
Prices surged, and federal and state officials pressed suppliers to redirect product to domestic markets.
Now
Exposed the tension between exports and domestic heating demand, raising attention to storage levels ahead of winter.
Why this matters now
Today's record exports again compete with U.S. heating demand. Analysts at Fuel Data Portal warn that light fall inventory builds could set up a tight domestic market if a cold snap hits.
