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US carbon emissions set to fall 1.5% in 2026, EIA forecasts

US carbon emissions set to fall 1.5% in 2026, EIA forecasts

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New Global Carbon Project data show a 1.3% U.S. drop in 2026, with global emissions down 0.4% on the Iran war oil shock.

2 days ago: Global Carbon Project reports 2026 emissions dip

Overview

Updated Yesterday

U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are on track to fall about 1.5% in 2026, the Energy Information Administration forecast in October. EIA's own figures show emissions also fell in 2023 and 2024 before rising 2.6% in 2025. The Global Carbon Project puts the U.S. drop at 1.3%, with output back near 1991 levels. EIA puts most of its forecast drop on lower coal use, then less gasoline and diesel; the Global Carbon Project ties the U.S. drop to the Iran war's oil shock, which raised fuel prices and cut consumption.

The Global Carbon Project says global fossil-fuel emissions will fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, mostly because of the war rather than clean-energy growth. It warns the decline may be short-lived, and land-use emissions are rising enough that total CO2 is still projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tonnes. The White House's deregulatory push, including the EPA's September repeal of power-plant carbon limits, is not driving the drop.

Why it matters

A war-driven oil shock, not climate policy, is cutting U.S. emissions, and the drop may reverse when prices fall.

Guess first

US carbon emissions climbed for decades to a 2007 peak. Where were they by 2025?

Energy-related carbon dioxide from US fuel use each year since 1973, in billion metric tons.

4bn t5bn t6bn t 198020002020 1983 low after oil shocks: 4.38bn Peak: 6.02bn 4.92bn t

2025: 4.92bn t. 4.92bn: 18% below the 2007 peak and lower than every year from 1988 to 2019. 2025 itself rose 2.6%, after falls in 2023 and 2024. EIA forecasts 4.85bn for 2026, down 1.5%.

US carbon emissions climbed for decades to a 2007 peak. Where were they by 2025? Notes and the latest months; 53 points from 1973 to 2025 at the source.
DateValue
19834.38bn t
19965.52bn t
19975.59bn t
19985.64bn t
19995.70bn t
20005.89bn t
20015.78bn t
20025.82bn t
20035.89bn t
20045.99bn t
20056.01bn t
20065.93bn t
20076.01bn t
20085.82bn t
20095.40bn t
20105.59bn t
20115.46bn t
20125.24bn t
20135.36bn t
20145.41bn t
20155.26bn t
20165.17bn t
20175.13bn t
20185.28bn t
20195.15bn t
20204.58bn t
20214.91bn t
20224.95bn t
20234.80bn t
20244.79bn t
20254.92bn t

As of 2026-11-10. EIA Monthly Energy Review Table 11.1, series TETCEUS (total energy CO2), annual totals 1973-2025, million tons shown as billions. Chart starts at 4bn; no year falls below. The 2026 figure is EIA's October 2026 STEO forecast, not a measurement. Sources: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Table 11.1: CO2 emissions from energy, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Economy, weather, and CO2.

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Key Indicators

6,205.3 MMT CO2 Eq.
2024 gross U.S. GHG emissions
Total gross emissions in 2024, 5.1% below 1990 and roughly flat from 2023.
+2%
2025 U.S. CO2 change from 2024
EIA data shows energy CO2 rose about 2% in 2025 as coal-fired generation jumped 13%.
1991
Projected 2026 emissions level
Global Carbon Project and early estimates put 2026 U.S. emissions back at 1991 levels.
−0.4%
Projected 2026 global fossil-fuel change
Global Carbon Project projects global fossil-fuel emissions fall about 0.4% in 2026, driven by the Iran war oil shock.
−1.3%
Projected 2026 U.S. fossil CO2 change
Global Carbon Project projects U.S. emissions fall 1.3% in 2026, mainly on a 6.7% drop in coal emissions.
+533 MMT
Extra CO2 from rule repeal by 2040
EPA's estimate of added carbon dioxide from repealing power-plant carbon standards.

Voices

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People Involved

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States
Directing climate regulatory rollbacks
 Lee Zeldin
Lee Zeldin
EPA Administrator
Overseeing repeal of federal climate rules

Organizations Involved

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Federal Agency
Repealed power-plant carbon standards in September 2026

Federal agency that writes and enforces U.S. greenhouse gas rules.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Federal statistics agency
Primary source for U.S. energy and CO2 data; October forecast sees 2026 CO2 down 1.5%

Federal agency that tracks U.S. energy production, consumption, and carbon emissions.

Timeline

2005 November 2026

9 events Latest: 2 days ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Global Carbon Project reports 2026 emissions dip

    Latest Data

    Annual carbon budget projects global fossil-fuel CO2 falls 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, and U.S. emissions fall 1.3%. Researchers say the decline is mostly due to the Iran war oil shock and may be short-lived.

  2. EIA forecasts U.S. CO2 down 1.5% in 2026

    Data

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. energy-related CO2 falls 1.5% in 2026 and stays flat in 2027, with coal consumption declining.

  3. Report: U.S. emissions projected to fall in 2026

    Data

    Early projections show 2026 U.S. emissions declining year-over-year, back to 1991 levels.

  4. EPA repeals power-plant carbon rules

    Rule Change

    Agency finalized repeal of 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards, citing deregulation.

  5. 2025 emissions rise about 2%

    Data

    Coal-fired generation jumped 13%, pushing energy CO2 up roughly 2%.

  6. 2024 emissions roughly flat

    Data

    Gross emissions inched up 0.04% from 2023, ending the rebound phase.

  7. EPA issues Carbon Pollution Standards

    Rule Change

    Agency required fossil-fuel power plants to install carbon-capture controls.

  8. Pandemic cuts emissions sharply

    Data

    COVID-19 lockdowns drove the largest one-year U.S. emissions drop on record.

  9. U.S. GHG emissions peak

    Data

    Annual emissions hit an all-time high around 2005 before a long decline began.

Scenarios

1

2026 emissions decline confirmed as real

Likely Resolves by May 31, 2027

Discussed by: Carbon Brief's global fossil-fuel forecast and the September 2026 reporting behind the initial story

The Global Carbon Project and EIA both project 2026 U.S. emissions below 2025. The EPA's next official inventory, covering 1990 through 2026, will confirm whether the decline held for the full year.

2

Hormuz crisis fades, emissions rebound

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Washington Post analysis of the oil-price demand effect; the post-2020 rebound pattern

The emissions drop hinges on a supply disruption that raises prices and cuts demand. Global Carbon Project researchers say the decline may be short-lived; if the Strait of Hormuz crisis resolves and oil prices fall, U.S. consumption and emissions would likely climb back in 2027, as they did after the 2020 pandemic dip.

3

Coal comeback pushes electricity emissions up

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: EPA's own compliance estimate; Energy Tech's 2025 coal analysis; Energy Innovation's rollback modeling

Coal-fired generation rose 13% in 2025, but the Global Carbon Project projects U.S. coal emissions fall 6.7% in 2026. If coal demand rebounds instead, electricity-sector CO2 could offset part of the oil-driven decline.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 1973 – March 1974

1973 Oil Embargo

Arab members of OPEC cut oil exports to the United States and its allies over the Yom Kippur War, quadrupling prices and forcing rationing and long gas station lines.

Then

U.S. oil consumption fell sharply as prices soared and supply shrank.

Now

Congress passed fuel-economy standards and the 55 mph speed limit, reshaping energy policy for a decade.

Why this matters now

2026's decline also flows from a supply disruption raising prices. The open question is whether it leaves lasting policy changes behind, as 1973 did.

March–April 2020

Pandemic Demand Collapse

Lockdowns across the U.S. halted travel and closed factories, cutting emissions more than 10% below 2019 and setting a modern record for the largest one-year drop.

Then

Emissions rebounded sharply in 2021–2025 as the economy reopened and fuel demand returned.

Now

The episode showed how fast demand-driven emissions cuts can happen, and how quickly they reverse when prices fall.

Why this matters now

2026 is the first annual decline since that pandemic dip; whether it sticks depends on whether demand stays low.

2008–2009

Great Recession Emissions Dip

The financial crisis shrank GDP and energy use, and U.S. emissions fell for two straight years before the economy recovered.

Then

Emissions resumed growth after the recession, but stayed below the 2005 peak.

Now

Cheap natural gas from the shale boom then displaced coal, sustaining the decline through 2019.

Why this matters now

It shows a recession-driven drop can give way to a structural shift — or reverse once the shock fades.

Sources

(17)
+11
Reddit r/energy Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United States Carbon Brief The Japan Times U.S. Environmental Protection Agency The Washington Post Energy Tech NPR Insurance Journal The New York Times The Guardian Science News ABC News U.S. Energy Information Administration Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United States Carbon Brief Carbon Brief