Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25 with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, the Superior Electoral Court said. He is the first candidate to erase a first-round deficit since Brazil began holding runoffs in 1989.
Flávio Bolsonaro has not formally conceded and sought to annul the result over a two-hour voting extension. On October 26 his Liberal Party recognized Lula's victory, and Folha de S.Paulo reported that advisers urged him to drop the challenge. World leaders congratulated Lula that day while markets fell and the Treasury canceled two bond auctions.
Why it matters
Lula's win keeps Latin America's largest economy out of the Trump-aligned right, but a hostile Congress and jittery markets limit what he can do.
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Key Indicators
51.79%
Lula's share of valid votes
With all votes counted, Lula won 51.79% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, according to the Superior Electoral Court.
48.21%
Flávio Bolsonaro's share of valid votes
Flávio Bolsonaro led after the first round but lost the runoff by about 3.6 percentage points.
4.4M
Lula's winning margin
Lula led by nearly 4.4 million votes in the official count, according to the Associated Press.
35,521
Votes cast after 5 p.m.
G1 counted 35,521 vote confirmations after 5 p.m. Brasília time in the runoff.
-25%
Brazil ETF decline
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was 25% lower at 10:30 a.m. ET on October 26; trading on Brazil's stock exchange was halted by a circuit breaker.
42 events
Latest: October 26th, 2026 · 2 weeks ago
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October 2026
Brazil stocks fall; Treasury cancels bond auctions
LatestEconomy
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was 25% lower at 10:30 a.m. ET, and trading on Brazil's stock exchange was halted by an automatic circuit breaker. The Treasury canceled inflation-linked and fixed-rate auctions scheduled for October 27 and 29, citing market conditions.
Liberal Party accepts Lula's victory
Election
Party leader Valdemar Costa Neto said the PL recognized the election results but believed the issues raised by Flávio Bolsonaro needed clarification.
Trump calls Brazil vote 'rigged'
International
US President Donald Trump told reporters the election 'looked very bad' and resembled 'another rigged election,' but said he did not take sides.
Police ask Flávio Bolsonaro to surrender passports
Legal
Flávio Bolsonaro said federal police asked him to hand over his passports amid speculation he could leave the country. He said he would comply and had no plans to leave.
Report: advisers urge Bolsonaro to drop challenge
Legal
Folha de S.Paulo reported that legal advisers and political allies had urged Flávio Bolsonaro to abandon his bid to annul the election, citing Lula's margin and validation by the courts.
Scientific groups rallied around Lula, Nature reports
Science
Nature reported that Brazilian scientific organizations had rallied around Lula during the runoff and that many scientists welcomed his victory.
World leaders congratulate Lula on victory
International
Leaders from left- and right-wing governments congratulated Lula, including Peru's president, who cited the countries' approaching bicentennial of diplomatic relations. Valor International reported that analysts expected continuity in foreign policy despite a more conservative Congress.
Brazilians vote in presidential runoff
Election
Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. Brasília time. Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.; Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro faced off after final surveys put them in a statistical tie.
Final PoderData/Aya poll shows 51-49
Poll
PoderData/Aya put Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, a statistical tie. The institute interviewed 4,000 people in 914 cities on October 23 and 24; the margin of error is 1.6 points.
Lula wins runoff in first comeback since 1989
Election
Lula took 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, with all votes counted, the electoral court said. No candidate had overturned a first-round deficit since Brazil adopted runoffs in 1989.
Bolsonaro refuses to concede and seeks annulment
Legal
Flávio Bolsonaro said it was 'impossible to concede' and his legal team would seek to annul the result, citing the two-hour extension of voting. His campaign had also asked for polling stations to stay open later.
Bolsonaro's party wins largest benches in Congress
Election
Flávio Bolsonaro's Liberal Party elected 121 deputies and 19 senators, the largest benches in both chambers. Lula will have to negotiate votes with center and center-right blocs.
Count halted two hours after voting extension
Legal
Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting to 7 p.m. in some states, and the electoral court then paused the count for two hours. With about 14% of tallies reported, Flávio Bolsonaro led 50.02% to 49.98%.
Lula adds 10.4 million votes between rounds
Election
Lula took 10,362,248 more votes than in the first round; Flávio Bolsonaro added 3,714,384. Lula moved from second to first in 211 municipalities and overtook Flávio in Minas Gerais.
Lula pledges big tech regulation in victory speech
Election
In his first speech after the result, Lula thanked supporters and named big tech regulation, security, education and relations with Congress as priorities for his fourth term.
35,521 votes recorded after 5 p.m.
Election
G1 counted 35,521 vote confirmations after 5 p.m. Brasília time. Justice Cristiano Zanin had extended voting to 7 p.m. at stations still open, and the count was paused and resumed after 7 p.m.
Runoff abstention lowest since 2006
Election
The runoff had the lowest abstention rate in a presidential election since 2006, according to G1.
Bus shortages disrupt voting in eight states
Election
The Justice Ministry flagged bus shortages in eight states, many in cities run by Bolsonaro-aligned mayors. Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours; both campaigns had asked for more time.
Final CNT/MDA poll shows technical tie
Poll
CNT/MDA put Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.3% of total votes and Lula at 45%, a statistical tie. MDA interviewed 2,032 people from October 21 to 23; the margin of error is 2.2 points.
Electoral court orders Meta and X to report on political posts
Legal
Superior Electoral Court justice Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva ordered Meta and X to file reports every six hours on the reach of posts by federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira and influencer Pablo Marçal. The order partly granted a request from Lula's coalition.
Final Datafolha and Quaest polls show 51-49
Poll
Datafolha and Quaest each put Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% on the eve of the runoff. Both results were inside the margin of error.
Final debate on TV Globo turns to policy
Debate
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro spent two hours on Brazil's most-watched broadcaster on the economy, infrastructure and regional development. The exchange was calmer than their first debate, though Flávio called Lula 'Nine Fingers' and Lula demanded an apology.
Datafolha shows race tied at 50-50 in valid votes
Poll
Datafolha had Flávio at 47% and Lula at 46% of total votes, tied at 50% each among valid votes, after Flávio led 51% to 49% a week earlier. Lula's campaign called the result a sign of momentum; Flávio's team said the poll understated him.
Candidates adjust debate strategy after backlash
Campaign
After negative reaction to their first runoff debate, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro planned to change their approach for a TV Globo confrontation, CBN reported.
Polls show tight race as runoff nears
Poll
BTG/Nexus had Flávio at 50.3% of valid votes to Lula's 49.7%, a technical tie. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg had 51.1% to 48.9%, and PoderData/Aya 52% to 48%.
Lula rallies supporters in São Paulo
Campaign
Around a million people marched in São Paulo with Workers' Party banners, demanding funding for public education, healthcare and transport.
First runoff debate turns personal
Debate
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro called each other liars and traded corruption accusations in their first runoff debate.
Datafolha poll shows Lula cutting lead
Poll
Datafolha released a poll showing Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, down from a four-point gap a week earlier.
Report: Instagram restricted Lula campaign posts
Technology
Folha de S.Paulo reported that 'technical restrictions' on Instagram blocked Lula's campaign from promoting posts for almost 24 hours on October 9-10. Meta called it a glitch; Lula's campaign complained of bias.
Report: Flávio campaign paid for AI voter targeting
Campaign
The Intercept Brasil reported that Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign and the Liberal Party paid cybersecurity firm Elytron to run an AI system that analyzed voter data and targeted political messages.
Electoral court orders Meta to ensure equal treatment
Legal
Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze ruled Meta must not skew content distribution toward Bolsonaro, with a daily fine of 500,000 reais ($98,000) for noncompliance.
Senate approves 40-hour week and two days off
Legislation
Brazil's Senate approved a constitutional amendment that ended the six-day work schedule, cut the maximum workweek to 40 hours and guaranteed two days of paid rest each week.
Lula proposes free weekend public transport
Policy
Lula announced a constitutional amendment proposal to make public transport free on weekends in every Brazilian city.
Quaest poll shows Bolsonaro ahead
Poll
A Quaest poll gives Bolsonaro 47% of valid votes to Lula's 45%, within the margin of error.
Three polls show technical tie or narrow Bolsonaro lead
Poll
BTG/Nexus gives Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes to Lula's 48%; PoderData/Aya shows 51% to 49%; Datafolha shows 49% to 45%. PoderData/Aya shows Lula gaining 2 points since October 8.
Lula campaign seeks to broaden support
Campaign
PT turns to state-level leaders to break Lula's isolation. Bolsonaro has consolidated endorsements from Republicans, Podemos, Novo, and Brazil Union-Progressives.
Supreme Court scandal may affect race
Investigation
Police investigation finds Moraes's wife's law firm had a contract with banker Daniel Vorcaro, accused of orchestrating Brazil's largest banking fraud. Analysts say the crisis may have helped Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro secures endorsements from eliminated candidates
Endorsement
Bolsonaro gains backing from Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), and Clariana Barão (Christian Democracy). Renan Santos declines to endorse. Free campaign ads resume on TV and radio.
Datafolha runoff poll shows statistical tie
Poll
First Datafolha poll of the runoff gives Bolsonaro 49% and Lula 45%, a statistical tie within the 2-point margin of error. In valid votes, Bolsonaro leads 52% to 48%. Among voters who backed eliminated candidates, 46% say they'll vote for Bolsonaro, 32% for Lula.
First round: Bolsonaro leads, runoff set
Election
Flávio Bolsonaro wins 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%. Neither reaches 50%, forcing an October 25 runoff. The right also gains ground in Congress.
2026
Banco Master fraud scandal erupts
Investigation
Banker Daniel Vorcaro arrested, accused of orchestrating a multibillion-dollar fraud. Federal police open a money-laundering investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro tied to the case.
October 2022
Lula narrowly defeats Jair Bolsonaro
Election
Lula returned to office for a third term, defeating the incumbent in a tight runoff.
Scenarios
1
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidency
Deadline passed (Oct 26, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters, NPR, BBC
Bolsonaro enters the runoff with a first-round lead and a natural pool of voters: the third, fourth, and fifth-place candidates are all right-wing. His Liberal Party also won the most seats in Congress. If he holds his coalition and picks up moderate voters, he could win on October 25.
2
Lula wins a fourth term
Deadline passed (Oct 26, 2026)
Discussed by: BBC, NPR
Lula needs to rebuild the broad coalition that returned him to power in 2022, including younger voters who showed less enthusiasm this time. He has pledged to continue social spending and stand up to Trump's policies. A win would keep Brazil's distance from Washington and deepen ties with China.
3
Undecided and abstaining voters decide the runoff
Deadline passed (Oct 25, 2026)
Discussed by: AP News
More than 33 million voters, 21% of the electorate, abstained in the first round. Both campaigns are targeting undecided voters and supporters of eliminated candidates. A shift of a few percentage points could decide the outcome.
4
Electoral court annuls the runoff result
Unlikely
Resolves by Jan 5, 2027
Discussed by: Flávio Bolsonaro's legal team, Superior Electoral Court
Flávio Bolsonaro said he would ask the electoral court to annul the runoff over the two-hour voting extension. His Liberal Party has since recognized Lula's victory, and Folha de S.Paulo reported that advisers urged him to drop the challenge. The court has not ruled, and Lula's victory stands.
5
Flávio Bolsonaro drops his challenge and concedes
Likely
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: Folha de S.Paulo, Liberal Party statement
Flávio Bolsonaro's advisers and political allies have urged him to abandon his bid to annul the election after his party recognized Lula's victory. A formal concession would end the last legal dispute over the result.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
October 2022
Brazil 2022 presidential election (October 2022)
Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 runoff, returning to office for a third term. Bolsonaro refused to concede and later faced charges for plotting to overturn the result.
Then
Lula took office in January 2023; Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison.
Now
The Bolsonaro political movement remained strong, setting up his son Flávio's 2026 campaign.
Why this matters now
The 2026 runoff is a rematch: Lula again faces a Bolsonaro, this time the son, in a similarly tight contest.
2 of 3
November 2023
Argentina elects Javier Milei (November 2023)
Javier Milei, a right-wing libertarian economist, won Argentina's presidential runoff, defeating Peronist candidate Sergio Massa. He campaigned on slashing government spending and aligning with the United States.
Then
Milei took office in December 2023 and began aggressive austerity measures.
Now
His victory was part of a rightward shift across Latin America, with several countries electing conservative leaders.
Why this matters now
A Bolsonaro win in Brazil would extend this rightward wave across Latin America's largest economy.
3 of 3
October 2018
Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election win (October 2018)
Jair Bolsonaro, then a fringe congressman, won the presidency in 2018, defeating the Workers' Party's Fernando Haddad. His victory marked a sharp rightward turn for Brazil.
Then
Bolsonaro took office in January 2019 and governed for four years.
Now
His family became a dominant force in Brazilian politics, with his son Flávio now running for the presidency.
Why this matters now
The Bolsonaro family's political brand, built in 2018, is on the ballot again in 2026.
