Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Rule Changes

Signed the provisional measure banning fixed-odds betting; won re-election in the October 25 runoff and keeps defending the ban publicly

Brazil's betting sites have stayed offline since October 6. Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux suspended every lower-court lawsuit against the ban on November 9, saying conflicting rulings were creating legal uncertainty.

Updated Yesterday

Money Moves

Won the October 25 runoff and is due to take office for a fourth term in January 2027; has delayed fiscal decisions until after a trip ending November 15

The Central Bank of Brazil held the Selic at 13.75% on November 4, ending a run of five straight cuts. It raised its inflation forecasts to 5.6% for 2026 and 4.7% for 2027, and said the outlook required caution.

Updated 4 days ago

Rule Changes

Won re-election on October 25

Brazil's Supreme Court ordered federal police on Oct. 27 to investigate whether foreign money or services reached Flávio Bolsonaro's failed presidential campaign. Justice Flávio Dino's 38-page order names the Rockbridge Network, a donor group co-founded by Vice President JD Vance.

Updated Oct 31

Rule Changes

Reelected to a fourth nonconsecutive term with 51.79% of valid votes; takes office in January 2027.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25 with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, the Superior Electoral Court said. He is the first candidate to erase a first-round deficit since Brazil began holding runoffs in 1989.

Updated Oct 30

Rule Changes

Won a fourth term in the October 25 runoff

Brazil's Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Eduardo Bolsonaro on October 8, after his four-year, two-month sentence for lobbying the Trump administration to sanction Brazilian officials became final. He is in Texas with a green card, and the warrant is still outstanding.

Updated Oct 27

Rule Changes

His coalition filed an electoral action seeking Bolsonaro's disqualification over alleged platform favoritism; the TSE gave Meta and X 24 hours to explain

Brazil's electoral court opened a new probe into Meta and X on October 22, giving both 24 hours to explain whether their systems treated Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro unequally. The order from corregedor Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva carries a R$500,000 daily fine for each company.

Updated Oct 27

Rule Changes

Won the October 25 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro and stays in office

Brazil's Amazon deforestation fell to 3,335 square kilometers in the year through July 2026, the lowest since satellite records began in 1988 and 63% below the 9,001 square kilometers cleared in 2023. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the October 25 runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, keeping the enforcement program that produced those numbers in place.

Updated Oct 26

Rule Changes

Supports agreement but did not attend signing ceremony

Negotiations between the EU and Mercosur began in 1999. Twenty-six years later, on January 17, 2026, representatives signed a comprehensive free trade agreement in Asunción, Paraguay—the same city where Mercosur itself was founded in 1991. The deal eliminates tariffs on more than 90% of bilateral trade and creates the world's largest free trade zone, covering over 700 million consumers and roughly a quarter of global GDP.

Updated Oct 23

Rule Changes

Seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in October 25 runoff

Brazil's Senate voted 75-1 on October 14 to approve a constitutional amendment cutting the maximum legal workweek from 44 to 40 hours, ending the 6x1 schedule. The amendment goes to Congress for promulgation without presidential approval; days later, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the government may create credit lines to help companies adapt.

Updated Oct 19

Force in Play

Seeking to defend Brazil's institutions against US pressure

Brazil blocked two US envoys in July, then the US revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador in August. By October, the US and Australia had suspended diplomatic operations in Brazil ahead of the election, citing security threats.

Updated Oct 16

Rule Changes

As of June 2026: Opposes the designation

A company that pays a Brazilian gang for protection may now be breaking US law. On June 5, the US labeled two of Brazil's biggest criminal organizations, Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando da Capital, as terrorist groups.

Updated Jun 5

Rule Changes

As of June 2026: Negotiating with the US while preparing retaliatory tariffs

Brazil sells the United States about $40 billion in goods a year. A new US trade action could add 25% to the price of most of it.

Updated Jun 2

Force in Play

As of May 2026: In office since January 2023 (third term)

Brazil protected Argentina's embassy in Caracas for 14 months after Nicolás Maduro expelled Argentine diplomats in July 2024. That arrangement ended January 16, 2026, when Italy assumed custodianship. The shift was triggered by Brazil's opposition to the U.S. military operation that captured Maduro two weeks earlier, and accelerated by Argentine President Milei's sustained social media attacks on Brazilian President Lula.

Updated May 21

Force in Play

As of May 2026: Warned that any U.S. armed intervention in Venezuela could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, elevating regional diplomatic pressure against escalation.

Trump's Venezuela "blockade" threat is now backed by policy. Washington has added new Venezuela-linked sanctions and also targeted Iran's shadow-fleet network. Together, these expand the pool of already-sanctioned vessels that the U.S. Navy could board if they try to trade with Venezuela.

Updated May 15