A Russian glide bomb killed at least 33 people on two buses in Kramatorsk on October 8. The strike is part of a Russian campaign to knock out Ukraine's transport and power systems before winter.
Russia kept up ballistic strikes on Kyiv through late October, including 21 missiles in three waves overnight on October 22 that damaged homes, energy facilities, railway and metro infrastructure and a monastery; two people were killed and 34 injured across 12 regions. Ukraine is short of interceptors: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the United States sent 24 Patriot missiles in 90 days, while about 2,000 air-defense missiles were fired in the first days of the Middle East war. Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat put Russia's capacity at 300 ballistic missiles a month and said Ukraine has to strike launch sites and missile factories.
Why it matters
Ukraine's air defenses are running out of interceptors as Russia fires hundreds of ballistic missiles a month at cities and power plants before winter.
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Key Indicators
33
Killed in Kramatorsk bus strike
Officials raised the toll from the October 8 glide bomb attack from 30 to 33.
21
Ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on October 22
Fired in three waves overnight; two people were killed and 34 injured across 12 regions of Ukraine.
24
Patriot interceptors received from the US in 90 days
Zelenskyy's figure, given in an ABC News interview in October 2026.
300
Ballistic missiles Russia can fire per month
Estimate from Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat on October 26.
15,280
Civilians killed or injured in Ukraine in first 8 months of 2026
United Nations figure covering January through August 2026.
13 events
Latest: October 26th, 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Showing 8 of 13
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October 2026
Air Force says Russia can fire 300 ballistic missiles a month
LatestStatement
Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said Russia is capable of launching 300 ballistic missiles a month while Ukraine's stock of interceptors able to destroy ballistic missiles is critically low. He said Ukraine should strike Russian launch systems and missile factories.
Zelenskyy says US sent 24 Patriot missiles in 90 days
Statement
In an ABC News interview, Zelenskyy said Ukraine received 24 interceptor missiles from the United States over 90 days, against about 2,000 air-defense missiles he said were used in the first days of the Middle East war. He said 264 PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles were planned for 2026.
Three waves of ballistic strikes hit Kyiv
Attack
Russia fired 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv overnight in three waves, damaging homes, energy facilities, railway and metro infrastructure, shops and a monastery. Two people were killed and 34 injured across 12 regions, Zelenskyy said.
Sixteen missiles hit Kyiv and surrounding region
Attack
Russian forces fired 16 missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region, part of continued ballistic attacks on the capital.
Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian oil refineries
Response
Zelenskyy said Ukraine would restart strikes on Russian refineries after holding off for three days at the request of the United States. He suggested he could soften that position in exchange for more Patriot missiles.
Russia fires 39 ballistic missiles in combined strike
Attack
Russia launched 39 ballistic missiles and 128 drones at Ukraine. CNN, citing a source, reported Ukraine intercepted almost none because it had run out of Patriot interceptors; missiles hit three power plants in Kyiv and energy sites in Kharkiv.
Kramatorsk bus strike death toll rises to 33
Update
Regional officials raised the death toll from the October 8 glide bomb strike on two buses from 30 to 33.
Reported Russian plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Intelligence
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published what it said was a Russian plan to knock out Ukraine's power, water, heating, and sewage systems, with Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as top targets. The plan includes strikes on nuclear and hydroelectric plants.
Glide bomb strikes buses in Kramatorsk
Attack
A Russian glide bomb exploded beside two passenger buses, killing at least 30 and wounding 18 in the frontline city.
Public transport suspended; Kyiv strike kills four
Response
Governor Filashkin suspends buses in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. A Russian attack on Kyiv kills four, and Ukraine strikes a Yandex data center and a Salavat oil refinery.
Pryluky apartment block hit, 22 dead
Attack
A Russian missile destroyed a five-storey apartment block east of Kyiv, killing 22 people including five children, three of them one year old.
France speeds Aster 30 deliveries to Ukraine
Support
France said it would accelerate deliveries of Aster 30 interceptors and send additional radars to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses.
August 2026
Glide bomb campaign intensifies over Kramatorsk
Escalation
Up to nine glide bombs hit Kramatorsk in a single day, part of a surge in Russian air attacks on the city.
Scenarios
1
Kramatorsk falls to Russian forces
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: BBC, Washington Post, military analysts
Moscow claims the entire Donbas and has set its sights on the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk defensive belt. The intensified glide bomb campaign reads as a softening-up phase before a ground push. The city has held since 2014, when separatists first tried to take it, but Ukraine's ammunition and interceptor shortfalls make a repeat of the Bakhmut pattern plausible.
2
Transport collapse deepens across Ukraine
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Volodymyr Fesenko (Penta), Al Jazeera
Russia's strikes now target buses, trains, gas stations, bridges and ports. If the bombardment continues, rail and road service could break down region by region, choking military supply lines and civilian movement. Governor Filashkin's suspension of transport in two cities may be the first of many.
3
Ceasefire negotiations gain ground
Unlikely
Resolves by Jan 20, 2027
Discussed by: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Rubio called the war a dangerous stalemate and said Washington would keep working toward a settlement, adding that a European team may join the negotiating group. A ceasefire would not resolve the underlying dispute over Donbas, but it could halt the strikes while negotiations proceed. The Kramatorsk attack makes such talks harder politically for Kyiv.
4
Energy Grid Collapse Across Ukraine
Possible
Resolves by Mar 1, 2027
Discussed by: RFE/RL, The New York Times, Ukrainian officials
A reported Russian plan aims to cut electricity and heating by up to 90% in major cities. If realized, winter blackouts could cause a humanitarian crisis and mass displacement.
5
Patriot deliveries stay stalled through the winter
Possible
Resolves by Mar 1, 2027
Discussed by: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat
Zelenskyy says Kyiv needs roughly 350 interceptor missiles a month but received 24 from the United States in 90 days. Ukrainian officials have said allies already paid for some Patriot shipments that are waiting on Pentagon approval. If deliveries do not rise before winter, Russian ballistic strikes on power plants and cities will meet little interception.
Historical Context
2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 2
August 2022 – May 2023
Bakhmut battle (August 2022–May 2023)
Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, spent nine months grinding through the eastern city of Bakhmut, which was reduced to rubble before Moscow claimed it. The assault relied on overwhelming artillery and infantry waves at enormous cost to both sides.
Then
Russia captured a destroyed city for a symbolic victory, with tens of thousands of casualties on both sides.
Now
Bakhmut set the pattern for Russia's Donbas approach: heavy bombardment, then attritional infantry pushes.
Why this matters now
Kramatorsk is the next target in the same defensive belt. The Bakhmut campaign shows the price Moscow has been willing to pay for each city.
2 of 2
March – May 2022
Mariupol siege (March–May 2022)
Russian forces surrounded the port city of Mariupol, shelled it for weeks, and cut off food, water and power. Thousands of civilians died before the city fell, and the Azovstal steel plant became the last holdout.
Then
Mariupol fell in May 2022 after months of siege, giving Russia a land corridor to Crimea.
Now
The siege became a symbol of Russia's treatment of civilians in the Donbas and the basis for later war-crimes allegations.
Why this matters now
The Kramatorsk bus strike fits the same pattern of heavy civilian toll in Russia's campaign to consolidate control of the Donbas.
