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Russia and Ukraine trade strikes on each other's grain ports

Russia and Ukraine trade strikes on each other's grain ports

Force in Play

Reciprocal attacks on Black Sea and Danube export terminals have cut Ukrainian grain shipments sharply and lifted world wheat prices

September 12th, 2026: Russia launches major missile and drone strike on Odesa

Overview

Updated Oct 16

Russia and Ukraine kept striking each other's grain ports through the fall. After the August attacks on Izmail and Novorossiysk, the Black Sea grain trade nearly stopped. Ukraine's grain exports fell 76% in the first two weeks of August from a year earlier, and wheat prices hit $8 a bushel, the highest in three and a half years.

Attacks also hit commercial ships. Ukrainian strikes forced Russia to halt shipments through its Black Sea ports, including Novorossiysk, where three major grain terminals stopped work. The canceled supplies from two of the world's biggest wheat exporters threaten higher food prices in importing countries.

Why it matters

Russia and Ukraine supply a large share of the world's wheat, so strikes on their grain ports push up bread prices from Cairo to Jakarta.

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Key Indicators

$8
Wheat price per bushel (three-and-a-half-year high)
Chicago wheat futures spiked to nearly $8 per bushel in late September, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
124
Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports in July
Ukraine's infrastructure ministry recorded 124 attacks on ports and waterways in July, killing at least 20 port workers and sailors.
57
Cargo vessels attacked since June
Russia has attacked at least 57 cargo vessels in the Black Sea since June, reducing maritime traffic to a trickle.

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People Involved

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine
Pressing allies for more air-defense interceptors as Russian strikes on ports and energy infrastructure continue
 Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin
President of Russia
Overseeing sustained strikes on Ukrainian ports

Organizations Involved

Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food
Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food
Government Ministry
Reporting collapse in grain export volumes

Ukraine's farm ministry tracks and reports the country's grain exports, now sharply reduced by strikes and low Danube water levels.
Russian Ministry of Defense
Russian Ministry of Defense
Government Agency
Confirming strikes on Ukrainian ports

Russia's defense ministry announces and justifies strikes on Ukrainian port and naval infrastructure.

Timeline

July 2023 September 2026

5 events Latest: September 12th, 2026 · 2 months ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Russia launches major missile and drone strike on Odesa

    Latest Attack

    A barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles and 129 drones hits Odesa and the region, part of a campaign that has intensified since July.

  2. Russia and Ukraine trade more deadly strikes

    Attack

    Nine people killed in Ukrainian strikes on Russia, including eight in Belgorod. Russian attacks kill at least seven in Ukraine; a strike on Odesa damages a civilian vessel.

  3. Russia strikes Izmail Danube grain port

    Attack

    Russian air attack damages loading terminals at Izmail and Reni, sparks fires and cuts power. Romania scrambled two F-16s over nearby drone activity.

  4. Ukraine strikes Novorossiysk grain terminals

    Attack

    A mass drone and missile attack halts three of Russia's largest Black Sea grain terminals and damages warships. Regional officials reported three killed.

  5. Russia quits the Black Sea Grain Initiative

    Diplomacy

    Moscow ends the UN- and Turkey-brokered deal that let Ukraine export grain safely, then begins striking Odesa and Danube ports.

Scenarios

1

Reciprocal port strikes continue into the fall

Likely Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: Al Jazeera, Reuters, Bloomberg reporting on the campaign

Both sides keep hitting each other's grain and port infrastructure with drones and missiles. Ukraine targets Russian Black Sea terminals and warships; Russia keeps striking Odesa and Danube ports. Export volumes stay depressed and world wheat prices remain volatile through the autumn harvest and shipping season.

2

New grain-shipping deal or ceasefire on port strikes

Unlikely Resolves by Feb 28, 2027

Discussed by: UN, Turkey and analysts tracking grain-corridor diplomacy

Diplomatic pressure, possibly through Turkey or the United Nations, produces a formal agreement to spare grain-export infrastructure or restore a protected shipping corridor. Rising global food prices push importing states to lean on both capitals. A deal would ease insurance costs and let commercial ships return to Ukrainian ports.

3

NATO member drawn into an incident over the Danube

Possible Resolves by Feb 28, 2027

Discussed by: Romanian defense ministry, NATO officials

Strikes near Izmail sit within a few kilometers of Romania, a NATO member that has already scrambled fighters and found drone debris on its soil before. A stray munition or debris causing casualties or major damage inside Romania would force a NATO response and sharply raise escalation risk.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

July 2023

Black Sea Grain Initiative collapse (2023)

Russia withdrew from the UN- and Turkey-brokered deal that had let Ukraine ship grain through a protected Black Sea corridor. Over its 360 days, the deal moved about 32 million tonnes of food and helped bring global food prices down.

Then

Russia began striking Odesa and Danube ports within days, damaging grain stores and pushing traders toward river and land routes.

Now

Ukraine built its own naval-drone corridor and pushed much of Russia's Black Sea Fleet back from the western Black Sea.

Why this matters now

The current strikes are the direct continuation of that breakdown, now with both sides hitting each other's export terminals.

2023-2024

Ukraine's Black Sea Fleet campaign (2023-2024)

Ukrainian missile and naval-drone strikes damaged or sank multiple Russian warships and forced much of the Black Sea Fleet to relocate from Sevastopol in Crimea toward Novorossiysk.

Then

Russia moved ships east, reducing naval threats to Ukraine's western coast.

Now

It concentrated Russian naval and export assets at Novorossiysk, the same hub Ukraine struck on Aug. 12, 2026.

Why this matters now

It explains why Novorossiysk is now both a naval base and a grain hub within Ukrainian drone range.

Sources

(9)
+3
Al Jazeera Ukrainska Pravda NV (Novoye Vremya) CNBC Ukrainian Shipping Magazine IFPRI Council on Foreign Relations BBC News Deutsche Welle