Russia hits power grid across 12 regions before Abu Dhabi talks as Ukraine's delegation arrives
Russia escalated missile and drone strikes in the week before the first trilateral talks since February, damaging energy facilities in 12 regions on Nov 9. At least four people were killed in attacks on Odesa and the Kyiv region, a 2-year-old was injured in Kharkiv, and Dnipro and Kamianske lost power.
Ukraine's delegation arrived in Abu Dhabi for talks with Russia and the United States set for Nov 10, with European partners holding separate meetings. Kyiv said it would propose de-escalation steps and seek a leaders' summit. The US separately approved a potential sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
Why it matters
The first three-way talks since February open as Russia pounds Ukraine's power grid, testing whether diplomacy can slow the war before winter.
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"One cannot negotiate in good faith with a beast that gnaws at your vitals while extending its paw in friendship. Putin's twin-edged strategy—burning civilians by night, signing protocols by day—proves once more that tyrants respect only the language of resolve, not the syntax of summits."
Ukraine's military has evolved from 200,000 troops pre-war to a battle-hardened force facing a war of attrition.
Russia's military has suffered catastrophic casualties while grinding forward through eastern Ukraine.
Trump's controversial $1 billion international conflict resolution body launched at Davos, positioned as potential alternative to UN.
February 2022 November 2026
Russia fired more than 30 ballistic missiles and over 170 drones, wounding nine people including one child, according to BBC reporting. The wave further damaged Ukraine's power network.
Attacks on Odesa and the Kyiv region killed at least four people. A 2-year-old was injured in Kharkiv, and energy damage left parts of Dnipro and Kamianske without power.
Zelensky said Russian strikes on bridges and energy infrastructure are meant to divide Ukraine along the Dnipro River. He pledged additional state resources to five frontline regions after meeting their governors and Kyiv's mayor.
Ukraine's team arrived in Abu Dhabi ahead of the first trilateral meeting with Russia and the United States since February, scheduled for Nov 10. European partners, NATO and the European Commission were expected to hold separate meetings.
Zelensky accused Russia of intensifying attacks across Ukraine to gain leverage before trilateral talks. An overnight barrage triggered power cuts as temperatures dropped.
Evacuees left Oleshky in bus convoys, with officials saying up to 750 people could leave on 25 buses. Russian and Ukrainian officials said the operation went without incident, and several hundred residents chose to stay.
Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles and 113 drones, killing one person in the capital. Ukrainian officials said attacks over the day killed 27 people.
Regional officials said Russian attacks cut power to more than 350,000 consumers in Dnipro and nearby settlements. Another report put the outage in Dnipropetrovsk at about 200,000 consumers.
A Ukrainian drone hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samara Oblast, which produced jet fuel for Russia's armed forces, and set it on fire.
The State Department said the proposed sale would improve Ukraine's air and missile defenses. It was announced as Russian strikes continued across the country.
Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova said convoys from Oleshky reached Armyansk in northern Crimea and split, one bound for Ukraine and one for Russia. A Ukrainian official said evacuees heading to Russia would fly to Belarus before returning to Ukraine by bus.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said attacks on Russian oil refineries had resumed after a lull, amid reports of a fire at an oil facility.
Russian ballistic missiles struck warehouses in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district, killing one person and setting buildings ablaze, officials said.
In an evening address, Zelenskyy said Russia was preparing new ballistic missile attacks and urged allies to supply more Patriot interceptors.
Russia hit Kyiv's Southern Bridge, a university campus, administrative buildings and medical centers. Ukraine's air force said Russia used ballistic missiles and 280 drones, and air defenses downed two ballistic missiles and 255 drones. At least four people were killed across Ukraine.
A local truce in Oleshky, Kherson region, began early on Oct 27, ahead of planned aid convoys to about 2,000 stranded residents. Euronews reported the start as 3 a.m. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had halted fire in the Kherson direction, and the zone was later expanded to cover humanitarian convoys.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre called Putin, describing the talk as frank and substantive. The Kremlin said long-term peace requires Russia's legitimate interests to be fully taken into account, and Lavrov said European states only want a role in future talks.
Russia fired at least 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv in three waves overnight, killing at least one person and wounding 22 in the capital, officials said. Zelenskyy said some missiles carried cluster warheads; Mayor Vitali Klitschko said subway infrastructure on the Southern Bridge over the Dnipro was damaged.
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Moscow was ready in principle to resume three-way talks in mid-November, possibly around Nov 10 in Abu Dhabi, and that the Ukrainian and European proposals had little substance. Trump called it the closest the parties had been to ending the war.
A Russian glide bomb hit two buses in Kramatorsk, killing at least 30 people, according to Ukrainian officials. Some reports put the toll at 33.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Greek media that ending the war through negotiations is currently unattainable, casting further doubt on Trump's push to broker peace.
Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Salavat refinery in Bashkiria and the Ryazan refinery in an overnight attack, according to Ukrainian sources.
President Zelensky said Ukrainian negotiators will meet Trump's envoys in the US later this week to discuss peace prospects, despite Rubio's pessimistic assessment.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said there are no plans for US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine, dimming prospects for the proposed trilateral meeting.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it will step up attacks on military and defense-industry targets in Kyiv and beyond, responding to Zelenskyy's Reuters interview vowing more strikes on Russian oil refineries.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv in a show of support. A Russian drone hit Kyiv's Northern Bridge for the second time in two days, damaging a heating main; an aerial bomb in Sumy killed one and wounded 16.
Zelenskyy said the US proposed a technical-level trilateral meeting by the end of October, possibly in the United Arab Emirates, and Ukraine confirmed it would take part.
Zelenskyy told Reuters that seized documents show Putin issued a new doctrine permitting strikes on a broader range of civilian targets, and vowed Ukraine would respond with more attacks on Russian oil refineries without targeting civilians.
Andrii Sybiha said India's ceasefire plan is the broadest of four under discussion, covering combat operations, energy strikes and the Black Sea. The others come from the US, Egypt and Turkiye.
The New York Times reported that peace negotiations now include a multibillion-dollar Lukoil oil deal that would benefit Middle Eastern business executives tied to Witkoff and Kushner. Putin introduced the deal during his Sept 5 meeting with the envoys.
Washington worked to arrange a new round of trilateral talks, with the UAE proposed as host. Russia killed seven in Kyiv, including a 14-year-old boy, and wounded 46. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal said it was shutting down production at Ukraine's largest steel plant after four strikes in five weeks.
Zelenskyy said he does not expect substantial negotiations during Russia's upcoming elections and anticipates meeting the U.S. team in New York at the end of September.
Between Sept 4-10, Ukraine struck at least seven Russian refineries and gas condensate plants, including two beyond the Urals at a range of about 3,000 km: Novy Urengoy and Purovsky in Yamalia.
Russia launched a complex attack on Kyiv using ballistic, cruise, anti-ship missiles and Shahed drones, killing at least five, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. A drone hit the We Are Ukraine TV channel building while on air. Strikes also hit Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, and the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro regions.
After meeting Zelenskyy, Witkoff said 'substantive progress' was made, including movement on scheduling additional trilateral talks. Kushner said the U.S. team was pushing for a return to the trilateral track.
Witkoff and Kushner flew to Kyiv after the Moscow talks to meet President Zelenskyy. The pause on strikes against Kyiv and Moscow held through its first day.
Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery about 180 km from Moscow, setting it on fire during the pause on strikes against the capitals.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Moscow first, then Kyiv on Sept 5-6. Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready for substantive talks and will refrain from airstrikes during negotiations. TASS reported the envoys would visit Moscow before Kyiv.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner landed in Moscow on Sept 5 and were expected in Kyiv the next day. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin ordered no strikes on Kyiv for three days starting at midnight Sept 6.
US envoys met Putin in Moscow for more than three hours of closed-door talks. The White House called the meeting 'substantive'; Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called it 'extremely frank.' No breakthrough was announced.
Ukraine proposed a three-day hold-fire covering long-range strikes and the front line, but Putin told the envoys Moscow never agreed to it. Only strikes on Kyiv and Moscow were paused.
Russian missile and drone attacks demolished an apartment building in Kyiv, killing nine including a 12-year-old girl. About 20 people were believed missing. Ukrainian officials noted the attack coincided with Trump's trip to China.
Kremlin confirms third trilateral talks for February 17-18 in Switzerland/Geneva; Vladimir Medinsky to lead Russian delegation as talks shift to Europe. Zelenskyy calls on Trump to pressure Russia amid stalled territorial issues.
Russia launched second massive post-pause strike targeting nuclear power substations after brief energy lull; Ukrainian defenses strained as attacks resume.
Strikes continue immediately after Abu Dhabi talks conclude with POW swap; Russia shows no de-escalation amid diplomacy.
Second round of US-Russia-Ukraine talks ended constructively; sides exchanged 314 POWs (157 each, first in 5 months). Rustem Umerov called discussions 'meaningful and productive'; Witkoff expects further progress.
Amid Abu Dhabi talks, US and Russia agreed to restore high-level military contacts suspended since 2021, first in over 4 years. EUCOM: Channel aids 'lasting peace' efforts; Gen. Grynkewich represented US.
Russia fired 71 missiles and 450 drones targeting energy infrastructure across five regions in temperatures as low as -23°C, ending Trump's energy ceasefire. Ukraine shot down 38 missiles and 412 drones. At least 10 wounded, 1,170 residential buildings in Kyiv left without heating. Zelenskyy accused Russia of exploiting the pause to stockpile missiles.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed second round of trilateral talks will take place February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, pushed back from February 1 to allow schedule adjustments. Date confirmed despite ongoing strikes.
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt said Trump was 'not surprised' Putin failed to heed ceasefire request but would 'continue to actively pursue diplomacy.' Russia launched massive strikes hours after Trump announced the pause had ended.
The one-week energy ceasefire announced by Trump on January 29 reached its expiration around February 1-2. Kremlin indicated the pause expires Sunday. Zelenskyy clarified 'There is no ceasefire. There is no official agreement on a ceasefire' and noted no direct Russia-Ukraine dialogue occurred on the arrangement.
Zelenskyy announced second round of trilateral talks will take place Wednesday-Thursday (February 4-5) in Abu Dhabi, not February 1 as previously scheduled. Ukraine 'ready for a substantive discussion' and 'interested in ensuring that the outcome brings us closer to a real and dignified end to the war.'
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated the unilateral energy ceasefire with Ukraine lasted only until February 1, contradicting Ukrainian expectations it would last until around February 6-7. Russia prepared for resumed strikes on infrastructure.
Kremlin revealed that Trump-announced energy ceasefire would expire Sunday (around February 1-2), with no official Russian confirmation of the arrangement. Over 1,300 Kyiv apartment buildings remained without heat as ceasefire expired.
Trump declared he "personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week and he agreed to do that" during Cabinet meeting. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for protecting Ukrainian cities during extreme winter. Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied the arrangement.
Ukraine's foreign minister cited 'progress' in latest Abu Dhabi talks, saying Russia sent more serious negotiators. Next round confirmed for Sunday, February 1 in UAE. Kremlin acknowledged talks were constructive but major challenges remain on territorial issues.
710,000 people remain without electricity in Kyiv as energy crisis continues following Russian infrastructure attacks amid freezing conditions. EU provides 447 generators to Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi and frontline communities.
Independent analysis warns total casualties (killed, injured, missing) on both sides could reach 2 million by spring 2026, with Russia suffering largest troop deaths of any major power since WWII.
Center for Strategic and International Studies report estimates Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties (275,000-325,000 killed), Ukraine 500,000-600,000 (up to 140,000 killed). Combined total approaching 2 million—Russia's losses exceed any major power since WWII.
Zelenskyy calls two-day talks "constructive" with discussions on war parameters. All parties agree to report to capitals and meet again February 1 in Abu Dhabi. Territorial issues remain unresolved.
Ukraine, Russia, and United States hold first trilateral negotiations in nearly four years of war. Talks focus on "possible parameters for ending the war" including territorial issues and security guarantees.
Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold four-hour overnight talks with Putin at Kremlin. Discussions described as "frank, constructive" but territorial issues remain unresolved.
Trump unveils Board of Peace at World Economic Forum with 19 countries signing founding charter. Major Western allies skip ceremony amid concerns about replacing UN. Trump declares "abnormal hatred" between Putin and Zelenskyy barrier to peace.
Russian bombardment leaves 5,635 residential buildings—nearly half of Kyiv—without heating or water in -14°C temperatures. Over a million people affected in worst crisis of four-year war.
Trump told Reuters that Putin "is ready to make a deal" while "Ukraine is less ready," responding "Zelenskyy" when asked who's holding up negotiations. Kremlin agreed with assessment. Ukrainian and European officials rejected claim, noting Ukraine has agreed to multiple U.S. proposals while Russia has agreed to none.
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile for only second time in war, targeting underground gas storage near Poland border. Attack includes 250 drones and dozens of missiles, killing at least four.
Russia killed two in Kyiv—first capital deaths of 2026—striking medical facility ahead of peace talks.
Five Russian missiles hit Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, causing "very serious damage" to heating and water systems in freezing temperatures. At least one civilian injured.
First meeting of Coalition of the Willing national security advisors held in Ukraine to discuss peace proposals and security guarantees.
Zelenskyy named military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov as presidential chief of staff, replacing Andriy Yermak. The appointment signals focus on security and peace talks.
Zelenskyy nominated Mykhailo Fedorov, drone and digitalization specialist, as defense minister amid military restructuring.
Trump held two-hour phone call with Putin discussing "a lot of points."
Trump and Zelenskyy met; Trump claimed teams are "maybe very close" to peace deal.
Russia launched 653 drones, 36 cruise missiles, 17 ballistic missiles, hitting power infrastructure.
Leaked recording reveals Trump envoy advising Russian official on how to pitch peace plan.
Russia's largest single-night drone attack hit Ukraine with over 800 Shahed drones.
Putin declared Russian-Ukrainian terms "absolutely contradictory," rejecting unconditional ceasefire.
Ukraine struck Russian airfields deep inside Russia using truck-transported drones.
American and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian representatives present.
Trump inaugurated as 47th U.S. president, promising to end the Ukraine war quickly.
Russian forces captured the strategic city of Kurakhove in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces seized the long-held city after reducing it to a sprawling ruin.
Ukraine's surprise cross-border offensive captured 1,250 sq km of Russian territory before stalling.
Zelenskyy replaced Commander Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky amid strategic disagreements.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the largest European land war since World War II.
Discussed by: CSIS, The Washington Post, NPR analysts covering U.S. security guarantees proposal
Trump pressures both sides into accepting a frozen conflict along current battle lines, with Ukraine receiving 15-year U.S. security guarantees (far short of the 50 years Kyiv requested). Russia keeps its 20% territorial gains but doesn't get the full Donbas region Putin demands. Ukraine doesn't join NATO but gets Western arms commitments. The deal holds for a few years but neither side considers it legitimate—Putin sees it as a temporary pause before taking more territory, Zelenskyy sees it as buying time to rebuild defenses. Frequent violations and skirmishes continue. This scenario appeals to Trump's desire for a quick diplomatic win but satisfies neither Moscow nor Kyiv's fundamental goals.
Discussed by: CSIS assessment of Putin's 2026 strategy, Atlantic Council analysis of Russian military capacity
The 90% complete peace plan falls apart over territorial disputes—Putin demands all of Donbas including areas Russia hasn't captured, Zelenskyy refuses to cede land where his forces still fight. Russia responds by escalating its drone and missile campaign beyond even January 5's intensity, targeting Kyiv systematically to force capitulation. Putin bets Trump will cut Ukraine aid if talks fail, leaving Kyiv vulnerable. Ukraine's intercept rates continue declining as Russia floods attacks with 1,000+ drones weekly. Energy infrastructure collapses. Millions flee westward. Trump blames Zelenskyy for being unreasonable. European allies scramble to fill the U.S. aid gap but can't match previous support levels. The war grinds into late 2026 with Russia making incremental gains.
Discussed by: Ukrainian officials quoted in CBS News and PBS NewsHour discussing compromise positions
Facing Trump's implied threat to cut aid and Russia's relentless attacks on civilian infrastructure, Zelenskyy accepts a deal he publicly calls unjust but necessary. Ukraine cedes significant eastern territory—not all of Donbas but more than current battle lines—in exchange for rapid-track EU membership, long-term U.S. and European security guarantees, and massive reconstruction funding. Ukraine agrees to neutrality (no NATO) but maintains a large, Western-armed military. Putin declares victory domestically, though he didn't achieve his maximum goals. Ukrainian public outcry is intense; Zelenskyy's approval craters but he argues it saved the nation from collapse. The agreement holds uneasily, with both sides preparing for potential future conflict.
Discussed by: Analysts citing December 2025 VTsIOM polling showing majority of Russians expect war to end in 2026
After over 1 million casualties, a state pollster finds a majority of Russians expect the war to end in 2026—a signal the Kremlin may be testing public acceptance of a settlement. Economic strain from sanctions, oil production disruptions from Ukrainian strikes, and the unsustainability of losing 1,500+ soldiers daily creates internal pressure. Putin accepts a deal closer to current lines without getting all of Donbas, selling it domestically as having achieved the core goal of protecting Russian-speakers and blocking NATO expansion. He keeps Crimea and most occupied territory but doesn't get the unconditional victory he initially sought. This scenario requires Putin to judge that continuing the war costs more than an imperfect peace.
Discussed by: US officials describing Abu Dhabi talks as 'surpassing expectations'; Ukrainian officials calling discussions 'constructive'
The unprecedented direct trilateral format—with US mediators in the room alongside Russian and Ukrainian negotiators—creates breakthrough momentum that bilateral talks never achieved. By late February or March 2026, the parties produce a framework agreement: Ukraine cedes some eastern territory but far less than Russia's maximal demands, receives ironclad 20-year Western security guarantees including US participation, gets fast-tracked EU membership, and maintains a large Western-armed military. Russia accepts less than full Donbas control but declares victory over NATO expansion. A frozen conflict with peacekeepers monitoring a demilitarized zone emerges. Both leaders sell it domestically as the best achievable outcome. Trump claims diplomatic triumph. The deal holds uneasily but stops the bloodshed.
Discussed by: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirming full Donbas withdrawal as 'important condition'; Ukrainian officials rejecting territorial concessions
The February 1 Abu Dhabi round breaks down when Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from all of Donbas—including areas Ukraine still holds—while Ukraine refuses to cede land where its forces actively fight. Putin calculates that Trump will cut aid when talks fail, leaving Ukraine vulnerable. Russia dramatically escalates energy attacks beyond even January's devastation, targeting Kyiv systematically with 500+ drone nights to force capitulation through civilian suffering. Ukraine's intercept capacity collapses under the volume. Millions flee westward as infrastructure fails. Trump publicly blames Zelenskyy for being "unreasonable," suspends new aid packages. European allies scramble to compensate but fall short. By summer 2026, Russia makes significant territorial gains as Ukraine's military capacity degrades without US support.
Discussed by: Atlantic Council analysts, Ukrainian officials warning of ceasefire violations
Russia violates the one-week energy ceasefire announced January 29, launching new strikes on infrastructure before or immediately after the February 1 Abu Dhabi talks. Trump—already blaming Zelenskyy publicly for holding up negotiations—uses the collapse as justification to drastically reduce U.S. military aid. Without American support, Ukraine's air defense capacity degrades further as Russia intensifies its drone campaign beyond even January's 4,400-drone-per-month average. European allies scramble to compensate but lack the military industrial capacity to match previous U.S. support levels. By late winter 2026, Russia makes significant territorial gains in Donbas as Ukrainian forces run short of ammunition and intercept rates plummet below 70%. Zelenskyy faces intense domestic pressure to accept a punishing peace deal ceding substantial territory.
Discussed by: Ukrainian and Western officials quoted in Euromaidan Press, February 3, 2026
Following Russia's violation of the Trump-brokered energy ceasefire just days before scheduled talks, Ukraine and Western allies agree on a new military response framework: if Russia violates any future ceasefire agreement, NATO allies will provide Ukraine with advanced weapons systems and authorization to strike deep into Russian territory within 72 hours. The plan includes pre-positioned long-range missiles and lifting all targeting restrictions. When Russia next violates a negotiated pause, the West executes the plan, dramatically escalating Ukraine's strike capabilities. This shifts the calculus for Putin, who must now weigh whether violating ceasefires is worth immediate Western military escalation.
Discussed by: US officials, Ukrainian negotiators, TASS reports on Witkoff-Kushner trip
The Witkoff-Kushner trip to Moscow and Kyiv revives the trilateral format that produced the February Abu Dhabi talks. A new round is scheduled in a neutral location, with both sides agreeing to another energy infrastructure pause. The talks focus on ceasefire monitoring and prisoner exchanges, producing incremental progress even if territorial issues remain unresolved.
Discussed by: AP News reporting, Ukrainian officials warning of continued strikes
The Witkoff-Kushner visit fails to produce a breakthrough. Russia continues its campaign of massive strikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure through autumn and into winter 2026-27. Ukraine's air defenses continue to degrade as Patriot supplies run thin. The war enters its sixth calendar year with no end in sight.
Discussed by: US and Ukrainian officials quoted in Politico and DW; Kremlin statement via Tass
The 72-hour pause on strikes against Kyiv, announced as Witkoff and Kushner visit, becomes the basis for a wider ceasefire. Both sides extend the pause beyond Sept 8, covering more cities and energy infrastructure, and schedule a new round of trilateral talks. Territorial disputes remain unresolved, but the pause gives diplomacy room to move for the first time since the February energy ceasefire collapsed.
Discussed by: White House official statement via AFP/Reuters; Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov
The White House says the Moscow and Kyiv meetings produced 'substantive plans for next steps' to be announced in coming weeks. If they materialize, the steps could include a new trilateral round, an expanded ceasefire, or a prisoner exchange, even though Putin rejected Ukraine's broader ceasefire proposal. If no announcement comes, the pause expires Sept 8 and strikes resume.
Discussed by: Zelenskyy, White House officials
Zelenskyy meets Trump's team in New York at the end of September. After Russia's elections, the sides agree on a new trilateral round, possibly with European partners. Food exports and energy infrastructure are discussed as possible first steps toward reducing fighting.
Discussed by: NYT reporting, ethics watchdogs, Democratic lawmakers
The revelation that a multibillion-dollar Lukoil oil deal tied to Witkoff and Kushner is part of the peace negotiations triggers scrutiny in Washington. Critics question whether the envoys' personal financial interests are shaping US policy toward Russia. The administration defends the deal as a way to build goodwill and lower energy prices, but the controversy could undermine the credibility of the mediation effort.
Discussed by: Zelenskyy, Ukrainian FM Andrii Sybiha, US officials
The US proposed a technical-level trilateral meeting by end of October, and Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine's willingness. With Ukraine backing a complete energy truce and India's proposal covering energy and Black Sea strikes, a partial ceasefire halting attacks on energy infrastructure could emerge even while front-line fighting continues.
Discussed by: Reuters, ABC News reporting on the Oct 4 exchange
Russia's vow to intensify strikes on Kyiv and other cities, paired with Ukraine's pledge to hit more Russian refineries, deepens the cycle as winter approaches. Seized documents cited by Zelenskyy point to a Russian doctrine allowing attacks on a wider range of civilian targets.
Discussed by: Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, President Zelenskyy, US officials
Ushakov said Russia was ready in principle to resume three-way talks around Nov 10 in Abu Dhabi, after the US midterm elections, with a focus on postwar security arrangements. Zelenskyy said Ukraine supported a US proposal for negotiators-level talks as soon as possible. The round would be the first since February, but both sides kept up missile and drone strikes in the days before it was floated.
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 to prop up a communist government, triggering a decade-long insurgency. The U.S. and allies armed Afghan mujahideen fighters with weapons including Stinger missiles that neutralized Soviet air superiority. What began as a quick intervention became a grinding war of attrition that killed 15,000 Soviet soldiers and wounded 50,000 while devastating Afghanistan. Soviet forces withdrew in defeat by February 1989.
Soviet withdrawal led to civil war and eventual Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
The war accelerated the Soviet Union's economic decline and contributed to its collapse in 1991, demonstrating the limits of military power against determined insurgency backed by external support.
Like Afghanistan showed the Soviets, the Ukraine war reveals limits of Russian conventional military power when the invaded nation receives massive Western support. Both conflicts featured a larger power invading a neighbor, facing unexpectedly fierce resistance, suffering unsustainable casualties, and discovering that military superiority doesn't guarantee political victory.
North Korea's invasion of South Korea in June 1950 triggered a three-year war involving Chinese and Soviet support for the North and U.S.-led UN forces supporting the South. After massive casualties on all sides and territorial gains that ultimately left both sides near the original border, an armistice was signed in July 1953—not a peace treaty, just a ceasefire. The war killed an estimated 3 million people and left Korea divided at the 38th parallel.
The armistice created a heavily militarized DMZ and froze the territorial status quo with no formal peace.
Seventy years later, North and South Korea remain technically at war, maintaining massive military forces and periodic tensions. The frozen conflict has defined the peninsula's geopolitics for generations.
A potential Ukraine settlement along current battle lines without resolving the fundamental territorial dispute would mirror Korea's armistice—freezing the conflict without ending it. Both sides would remain armed and hostile, with periodic escalations likely. The comparison raises the question: would a quick ceasefire create lasting peace or just a 70-year frozen conflict?
After years of negotiations, the U.S. and North Vietnam signed the Paris Peace Accords in January 1973, which were supposed to end American involvement while preserving South Vietnam. The agreement included a ceasefire, withdrawal of U.S. forces, and provisions for South Vietnamese self-determination. Nixon and Kissinger hailed it as "peace with honor." Within two years, North Vietnam violated the accords, invaded the South, and unified Vietnam under communist rule in 1975 as the U.S. declined to re-intervene.
The accords allowed the U.S. to withdraw while claiming to have secured South Vietnam's future, but fighting resumed almost immediately.
South Vietnam collapsed completely within 26 months, proving the peace agreement was a face-saving mechanism for American withdrawal rather than a durable settlement.
Trump's push for a quick Ukraine deal raises the Vietnam parallel: is this a genuine peace or a face-saving exit that leaves Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression? Like Paris 1973, any agreement that doesn't address the fundamental power imbalance and relies on Western security guarantees that may not be enforced could simply delay rather than prevent Ukraine's defeat.