On June 1, 2025, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) flew 117 drones smuggled into Russia in truck cabins and struck four air bases, gutting Russia's strategic bomber force. About 17 months on, the toll is still disputed: the SBU claims 41 aircraft hit, while U.S. officials say up to 20, about 10 destroyed.
Ukraine kept up deep strikes into November, setting fire to the Ryazan oil refinery and other industrial sites while Russia hit Ukraine's power grid and a postal hub near Kharkiv. On November 5, Russia said it downed 496 Ukrainian drones, and Ukraine's drone command claimed a one-day record of 751 Russian troops hit. The same day, envoys met in Brussels on reconstruction and security guarantees, with Jared Kushner calling the talks productive ahead of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Abu Dhabi.
Why it matters
One cheap drone raid proved Russia's vast territory can't protect its war machine, and that lesson now drives both sides' strategy.
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Key Indicators
20-41
Aircraft Hit, Disputed
U.S. officials say up to 20 struck, about 10 destroyed; SBU claims 41
1,000+
Drones Fired at St. Petersburg
Ukraine's October 19 strike on the city; Russia says it intercepted 1,000
500,000+
People Without Power
Six regions hit in Russia's October 22-23 energy strike, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said
496
Drones Russia Says It Downed
Russian Defense Ministry's count overnight into November 5; not independently verified
751
Russian Troops Hit in a Day
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces record on November 5, including 269 killed; Ukraine's claim
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November 2026
Russia and Ukraine Trade Airstrikes as Envoys Meet in Brussels
LatestDiplomacy
Russia said it downed 496 Ukrainian drones overnight, and Ukraine reported Russian strikes on energy sites and a postal hub near Kharkiv. In Brussels, U.S., U.K., French, German and EU officials discussed postwar reconstruction and security guarantees; U.S. envoy Jared Kushner called the talks 'productive and substantive.'
Ukrainian Drones Set Fire to Ryazan Oil Refinery
Military
More than 200 Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Ryazan region, wounding one person and sparking a fire at the Rosneft-owned Ryazan refinery, Russian officials and verified footage showed. Russia's defense ministry said it downed 496 drones across 13 regions, Crimea and the Black and Azov seas.
Ukraine's Drone Forces Claim Record 751 Russian Troops Hit in a Day
Military
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces said its units hit 751 Russian troops on November 5, including 269 killed, topping a record of 708 set on November 1. The command said it has hit 3,505 Russian troops since the start of November. The figures are Ukraine's own claim.
Russia Fires 310 Drones at Ukraine's Power Grid
Military
Russia launched 310 drones overnight, heavily targeting central and western Ukraine and causing emergency power outages in Kyiv and eight other regions, Ukraine's air force and officials said. A Russian military blogger said a new Filin cruise missile was used against an energy facility in Rivne Oblast.
Ukrainian Drone Strike Sets Fire to Ozon Warehouse
Military
A Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire at an Ozon marketplace logistics center in Adygeysk, Republic of Adygea, about 394 kilometers from the front line, local officials confirmed.
October 2026
Drones Hit Lipetsk Steel Plant and Novomoskovsk Chemical Plant
Military
Drones reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Steel Plant late on October 27 and the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region. Russia's Defense Ministry said it downed 531 Ukrainian drones over 12 hours; Ukraine has not formally claimed the attacks.
Ukrainian Drones Hit More Than 100 Russian Trains
Military
Ukraine's 1st National Guard Corps 'Azov' said drones have disabled locomotives and fuel tank cars on railway routes supplying Russian forces in occupied eastern Ukraine. The figure is Ukraine's own claim.
Ukraine's Operation Veles Reported Near Kupiansk
Military
Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces 'eliminated' more than 100 Russian soldiers and captured more than 30 in an underground advance of over 15 kilometers through gas pipelines near Kupiansk. The operation was run by the National Guard's 2nd Khartiia Corps.
Kremlin Sets Post-Nov. 4 Date for Talks
Diplomacy
Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia would resume trilateral talks with Ukraine and the U.S. after its Nov. 4 holiday. He expected the first meeting to be a 'trial run' with no significant results.
Satellite Images Confirm Damage at Oryol Plant
Military
Satellite imagery showed damage to two buildings at the Proton-Electrotex plant that make semiconductor wafers and microchips for Russian weapons. The images were published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Ukrainian missiles struck the Proton plant in Oryol, about 160 kilometers from the border. Governor Andrey Klychkov confirmed an enterprise was hit; ASTRA identified the plant, which makes components for Iskander-M and Pantsir systems. Drone raids later suspended flights at all four Moscow airports.
Russia Fires 126 Drones; Ukraine Downs or Jams 101
Military
Ukraine's Air Force said Russia attacked with 126 Shahed and Gerbera drones plus S-8000 Banderol and Dan-T cruise missiles and decoy drones. Ukraine destroyed or jammed 101 drones, with strikes recorded at 14 locations.
Starlink and Starshield Speeds Restored for Ukraine
Intelligence
Zelenskyy said Starshield was running at full speed, and Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported speeds above 400 km/h. Musk then said Ukraine had violated Starlink's terms, a claim Ukrainian officials denied.
Russia Cuts Power to 500,000 Across Six Regions
Military
Strikes on energy facilities in Zhytomyr, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi and Rivne left more than 500,000 people without electricity, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said. Emergency repairs began where the security situation allowed.
Starlink Speed Cap Still Unresolved
Intelligence
Ukrainian units kept reporting connection losses above 161 kilometers per hour, and defense officials said they had no confirmation the limit was lifted, the Institute for the Study of War reported. Trump had said a day earlier the service was about to be restored. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham phoned Trump to press for full access.
Russia Bombards Kyiv; Moscow Claims 800 Drones Downed
Military
Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles in an hours-long barrage, killing at least four people and wounding dozens, Ukrainian officials said. Russia's defense ministry said its air defenses intercepted more than 800 Ukrainian drones fired at Moscow and other cities.
Witkoff Meets Putin; Kremlin Floats November Talks
Diplomacy
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg. Putin then told Russian television Moscow was ready to resume U.S.-mediated talks with Kyiv in November. No ceasefire was announced.
Ukraine Launches Mass Drone Strike on St. Petersburg
Military
More than 1,000 Ukrainian drones hit St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast, setting the Petersburg Oil Terminal and the Ruchi oil depot on fire and killing one person. Russia's defense ministry said it intercepted 1,000 drones, and NPR reported it appeared to be the largest attack on the city since 2022.
Russia Fires 269 Drones Plus Missiles at Ukraine
Military
Russia launched Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles and 269 Shahed-type and decoy drones overnight, Ukraine's Air Force said. Defenders downed 247 targets, including more than 240 drones and four cruise missiles.
U.S. Resumes Ballistic-Missile Warnings
Intelligence
Washington resumed sharing intelligence on incoming Russian ballistic missiles after a pause of several days, Zelenskyy told NBC's Meet the Press. He said Kyiv went without the warnings during three days of ballistic attacks.
Ukrainian Drones Strike Yandex Data Center
Military
Overnight attacks hit targets in Russia's Moscow, Rostov and Vladimir regions, reportedly including a Yandex data center and warehouses.
Ukraine Hits Russian Drone Plant in Rostov
Military
Ukrainian forces struck a Roboavia production and storage site near Lenina in Rostov Oblast, the General Staff said. The company builds Sarych surveillance drones and Klin loitering munitions for the Russian military.
In a Financial Times interview, Zelenskyy said Ukraine's patience had run out and the ban on striking Russian refineries was lifted, effectively ending Trump's ceasefire push.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Refineries Without Starlink
Military
Kyiv hit fuel sites inside Russia even as the U.S.-provided Starlink service cut connections with Ukrainian attack drones at speed.
Russia Fires Heaviest Strike in Months at Ukrainian Grid
Military
Russia launched 39 ballistic missiles, including Tsirkon hypersonics, at Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, killing 5, wounding 36 and hitting all three of Ukraine's thermal power plants.
June 2026
U.S. Officials Dispute Spiderweb Damage Toll
Intelligence
Reuters reported U.S. officials put the June 2025 strike toll at up to 20 aircraft hit, about 10 destroyed, below the SBU's claim of 41.
April 2026
Ukraine Sets Monthly Record With 2,000+ Strikes on Russia
Military
Ukraine fired more than 2,000 drones and missiles into Russia in April, a one-month record for the deep-strike campaign Spiderweb pioneered.
January 2026
SBU Foils Russian Copycat Spiderweb Plot in Odesa
Military
Russia's GRU recruited two locals to bomb Ukrainian positions in Odesa with an explosive-laden drone, imitating Spiderweb. SBU counterintelligence detained them days before the planned strike.
Ukraine Strikes Zhutovskaya Oil Depot
Military
SBU drones hit oil depot supplying Russian forces, continuing pattern of deep strikes on logistics infrastructure.
Trump Advisers Meet Russian Envoy in Paris
Diplomacy
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner discuss U.S. peace plan with Kirill Dmitriev. Russia shows little willingness to compromise.
Paris Summit on Ukraine Security Guarantees
Diplomacy
Coalition of the Willing agrees on security guarantees framework. U.S. backs truce monitoring; UK and France pledge troops. Russia rejects European peacekeepers.
SBU Strikes Ammunition Depot and Oil Facility
Military
Overnight drone strikes damage 100th Arsenal ammunition depot and oil facility in central Russia, disrupting military supply chains.
Maliuk Resigns as SBU Chief
Political
Spiderweb architect steps down but stays to run covert ops.
Ukraine Strikes Rosrezerv Oil Depot on New Year's
Military
SBU drones hit oil depot in Yaroslavl region, designed to cut Russian petroleum supply chains.
December 2025
Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting Advances Peace Framework
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy unveils 20-point peace plan after meeting Trump, claiming 90% agreement on deal terms.
August 2025
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit
Diplomacy
Three-hour meeting yields no ceasefire. Trump backs Putin's territorial demands.
June 2025
Russia Controls All of Luhansk
Military
Moscow announces full control of Luhansk oblast in Donbas.
SBU Mines Crimean Bridge
Military
Ukrainian agents plant explosives on underwater bridge supports.
Second Istanbul Peace Talks
Diplomacy
One-hour meeting yields prisoner swap agreement but no ceasefire progress.
Operation Spiderweb Executes
Military
117 drones strike four Russian airfields. The SBU claims 41 strategic bombers destroyed or damaged; U.S. officials later estimated up to 20 hit, about 10 destroyed.
May 2025
First Direct Peace Talks in Three Years
Diplomacy
Ukraine and Russia meet in Istanbul, first direct talks since 2022.
April 2025
Russia Retakes Kursk
Military
Moscow announces Ukrainian forces expelled from Kursk region.
January 2025
Trump Inaugurated
Political
Trump returns to office, raising doubts about continued U.S. military aid.
January 2024
SBU Begins Planning Spiderweb
Planning
Zelenskyy approves covert operation to strike deep inside Russia.
February 2022
Russia Invades Ukraine
Invasion
Putin launches full-scale invasion from Belarus, Crimea, and Donbas fronts.
February 2014
Russia Seizes Crimea
Invasion
Disguised Russian troops occupy Crimea. Conflict spreads to Donbas in April.
Scenarios
1
Ukraine Escalates Deep Strikes, Russia Retaliates Against Kyiv
Likely
Discussed by: CSIS, Chatham House, military analysts
Ukraine replicates Spiderweb against other high-value targets—refineries, ammunition depots, command centers. Russia responds with intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, targeting critical infrastructure. Neither side gains decisive advantage. Attrition grinds on. Trump threatens to cut aid if Ukraine doesn't negotiate. Zelenskyy faces domestic pressure to accept territorial losses. Peace talks resume under U.S. pressure with Ukraine ceding Crimea and parts of Donbas.
2
Russia Adapts, Spiderweb-Style Ops Become Ineffective
Possible
Discussed by: Defense analysts, Russian military bloggers
Moscow tightens logistics security, screens civilian trucking, deploys counter-drone systems around strategic sites. The SBU's infiltration playbook stops working. Ukraine shifts back to conventional long-range drones and missiles but faces tighter Western restrictions on deep strikes. Russia continues grinding advances in Donbas. Ukraine's asymmetric edge dulls. By late 2026, territorial losses mount and Ukraine negotiates from weakness.
3
NATO Adopts Spiderweb Tactics, Russia Faces Multi-Front Pressure
Unlikely
Discussed by: NATO military planners, Irregular Warfare Journal
Western militaries study Spiderweb as blueprint for low-cost strategic strikes. NATO increases support for Ukrainian covert ops. Baltic states, Poland, and Moldova quietly enable cross-border infiltration operations. Russia faces drone threats from multiple vectors. Putin escalates rhetoric about NATO aggression but lacks effective countermeasures. Pressure grows for Russia to negotiate seriously. Peace talks yield ceasefire with territorial compromises but Ukraine retains more leverage.
Zelenskyy's 'we're done' ends Trump's ceasefire push. Ukraine keeps striking Russian refineries, ammunition depots and tech infrastructure, flying long-range drones without Starlink after the service cut their connections. Russia answers with heavier strikes on Ukraine's power grid, as on October 13-14, and Europe deepens security ties to fill the U.S. gap. The war grinds through winter with no ceasefire on the table.
A 161 kilometer-per-hour limit remains on Ukraine's military Starshield service, which interceptor drones need to chase Russian jet-powered attack drones. Zelenskyy said the cap, which appeared on October 14, leaves those interceptors unable to catch the jets, though he said Ukraine has other anti-drone defenses. He also says shipments of some U.S. supplies are delayed.
6
November Talks Convene While the Strikes Continue
Possible
Resolves by Nov 30, 2026
Discussed by: CNBC, AP, U.S. and Russian officials
Envoys met in Brussels on November 5 to discuss postwar reconstruction, 2027 funding and security guarantees, with Jared Kushner calling the talks productive. Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. are due to meet in Abu Dhabi days later. The test is whether either government pauses attacks on energy infrastructure before sitting down; Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will keep hitting Russian refineries while Russia hits its grid.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
May-June 1982
Operation Black Buck (British Falklands Raids, 1982)
RAF Vulcan bombers flew 6,600 nautical miles from Ascension Island to bomb Argentine positions in the Falklands—the longest-range strikes in history at the time. Eleven tanker aircraft refueled a single Vulcan in an elaborate relay. The raids cratered Stanley Airfield's runway, preventing Argentine jets from using it.
Then
Runway damaged, Argentine fast jets unable to land.
Now
Demonstrated extreme-range strike capability but strategic impact debated; some analysts call it more symbolic than decisive.
Why this matters now
Both operations prioritized strategic messaging over tactical destruction—showing adversaries nowhere is safe.
2 of 3
July 3-4, 1976
Operation Entebbe (Israeli Hostage Rescue, 1976)
After terrorists hijacked an Air France flight to Uganda, Israeli commandos flew 2,300 miles, raided Entebbe Airport, and rescued 102 hostages in 90 minutes. The raid required covert planning, flawless coordination across time zones, and operational surprise deep in hostile territory.
Then
102 hostages freed; one Israeli commando killed.
Now
Entebbe became template for long-range covert operations and bolstered Israel's global reputation for bold military action.
Why this matters now
Like Spiderweb, Entebbe proved that patient planning and infiltration can achieve strategic surprise thousands of miles from home.
3 of 3
December 7, 1941
Pearl Harbor (Japanese Carrier Strike, 1941)
Japanese carrier aircraft struck the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor without warning, sinking battleships and destroying aircraft. The attack demonstrated the vulnerability of concentrated strategic assets to surprise strikes. It brought the U.S. into WWII and shifted naval doctrine toward carriers.
Then
Crippling damage to U.S. battleship fleet; 2,400 Americans killed.
Now
U.S. entered WWII; Japan ultimately defeated. Strategic surprise changed warfare but didn't guarantee victory.
Why this matters now
Russian military bloggers called Spiderweb 'Russia's Pearl Harbor'—a surprise strike exposing the myth that distance equals safety.
