Preliminary results on November 7 left National and Labour nearly tied, with BBC News reporting a low national mood and voters deserting the major parties: Labour 29.36% and National 29.21%. National was projected to win 42 seats and Labour 36 in a 131-seat Parliament, with the National-led bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First holding 67 seats, a one-seat majority. About 399,000 special votes, roughly 14% of the total, remain to be counted before the official result on November 27.
On November 8, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon softened his refusal to work with Opportunity, saying a deal was 'highly unlikely' but that he wanted to build a relationship with leader Qiulae Wong, whose party won seven seats and will negotiate first with the largest party. Former prime minister Helen Clark called the result potentially 'flawed' and urged a review of enrolment and campaign funding laws. At least five electorates have fewer than 500 votes between the leaders, and special votes could change those leads.
Why it matters
The final count will decide whether Luxon's coalition survives and whether Opportunity's tax plans shape the next government.
Questions about this story
Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.
No questions yet — be the first to ask.
Key Indicators
Nov 7, 2026
Election Day
Preliminary results left National and Labour nearly tied; special votes are counted before the official result on November 27.
29.21%
National's preliminary party vote
National won 42 seats in the preliminary count, with Labour on 29.36% and 36 seats.
29.36%
Labour's preliminary party vote
Labour finished narrowly ahead of National in the party vote but behind in projected seats.
5.96%
Opportunity's preliminary party vote
Cleared the 5% threshold and won seven seats, entering Parliament for the first time.
67
Seats projected for National, ACT and New Zealand First
Preliminary count: National 42, ACT 13, New Zealand First 12, a one-seat majority in a 131-seat Parliament.
131
Projected seats in the next Parliament
The projected 131-seat House is 11 more than the current 120-seat Parliament because of overhang seats.
399,000
Special votes outstanding
About 14% of the total vote, including overseas and out-of-electorate ballots, to be counted before November 27.
5
Electorates with fewer than 500 votes between leaders
At least five races had fewer than 500 votes between the leaders; special votes could overturn those leads.
31 events
Latest: 3 days ago
Showing 8 of 31
JK to step
Tap a bar to jump to that date
Jump to
Late 20
National-led coalition takes office
UpcomingElection
Christopher Luxon forms a three-party government with New Zealand First and ACT after the October 2023 election.
November 2026
Luxon softens stance on Opportunity
LatestCoalition
Luxon said working with Opportunity was 'highly unlikely' but that he wanted to build a relationship with Qiulae Wong. He said coalition talks would start after the official result on November 27.
Wong sets out Opportunity's negotiating position
Coalition
Wong said Opportunity would talk to the largest party first and that a coalition, confidence and supply agreement or sitting on the cross benches were all options.
Māori electorate results show stronger support for Labour and Greens
Election
Preliminary results showed Te Pāti Māori leading five Māori electorates and Labour two. Labour and Green party votes rose in seats such as Waiariki and Te Tai Hauāuru.
Wong becomes first Asian leader of a party in Parliament
Election
Preliminary results made Qiulae Wong the first Asian leader of a political party in Parliament. National's Mahesh Muralidhar was set to become the party's first Indian MP to win an electorate seat.
Helen Clark calls election potentially 'flawed'
Governance
Former prime minister Helen Clark called for a review of electoral, campaign funding and voting laws, saying the election could be deemed 'flawed' and that early closure of enrolment disenfranchised many.
At least five electorates too close to call
Election
With about 399,000 special votes outstanding, at least five races had fewer than 500 votes between the leaders. Special votes can overturn leads of a few hundred votes.
Senior National MPs lose seats, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis
Election
Preliminary results showed some senior National MPs, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, out of Parliament as National's party vote fell.
Election Day
Election
New Zealanders vote in the general election under the mixed-member proportional system.
Preliminary results leave National and Labour deadlocked
Election
With 100% of preliminary votes counted, National had 29.21% and Labour 29.36%. National was projected to win 42 seats and Labour 36 in a 131-seat Parliament, with no clear winner.
Opportunity enters Parliament for the first time
Election
Opportunity won 5.96% of the party vote and seven seats. Leader Qiulae Wong told supporters, 'S**t, we did it!' and said the party would talk to the largest party first.
October 2026
RNZ-Reid poll: National 24.8%, Labour 30.6%
Poll
National fell below its 2020 election result, while Opportunity rose to 7.2%. The projection gave Labour, the Greens and Opportunity 64 seats and the current coalition 54.
Luxon warns poll could become 'reality'
Campaign
Luxon posted on social media that if the RNZ-Reid poll became reality there would be 'dire consequences for Kiwis'. He broke his usual practice of not commenting on polls.
Electoral Commission refers multiple-voting claims to police
Governance
The commission went to police over claims that people voted 'multiple times', RNZ reported.
1News-Verian poll: National 29%, Labour 27%
Poll
The survey, conducted October 21-25, put National two points ahead of Labour and Opportunity at 6%, down one. RNZ reported the result on October 29.
Advance voting begins
Election
Voting places opened across New Zealand for the November 7 election. Enrolment had closed at midnight the night before.
Enrolment closes for the November 7 election
Election
October 25 was the last day to enrol, the day before advance voting was due to begin.
Overseas voting opens
Election
Voting opened for about 126,000 enrolled voters living abroad.
Luxon repeats Opportunity rule-out, says government cannot be re-elected without it
Campaign
Luxon said he had 'ruled out Opportunity' and did not know how to be clearer, while predicting the party would enter Parliament and that his government could not win on current numbers without it.
1News-Verian poll: National 32%, Labour 27%
Poll
National rose four points and Labour slipped one, with the Greens on 16%, ACT 11%, Opportunity 7% and New Zealand First 8%. On the seat projection, the right bloc needed Opportunity to govern.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll puts Labour narrowly ahead
Poll
Labour 28.7%, National 27.6%, New Zealand First 11.8%, Greens 14.3% and Opportunity 5.4%, with 15% of voters undecided when surveyed October 9-19.
1News-Verian poll has National and Labour level at 28%
Poll
The survey put National and Labour on 28% each, the Greens on 15%, ACT on 10% and New Zealand First on 10%.
First TVNZ leaders' debate between Luxon and Hipkins
Campaign
Moderated by Jack Tame, the debate covered cost of living, trust and racism. Both Luxon and Hipkins ruled out raising GST but stopped short of guaranteeing other taxes would not rise. Both were pressed on extending the $50 weekly boost to the in-work tax credit, set to expire in April 2027.
1News Verian poll shows both blocs tied at 58 seats
Poll
The poll puts National at 29%, Labour at 28% and the Greens at 16%. Both the governing bloc and the Labour-led bloc would take 58 seats in a 124-seat parliament, two short of a majority, leaving the Opportunity Party at 7% with eight projected MPs as the balance of power.
RNZ-Reid poll shows National at 25.9%, its weakest since 2020
Poll
The poll shows National at 25.9% (down 3.2 points), Labour at 30.8% (down 1.4), and the Greens surging to 14.8% (up 4.6). Neither the governing coalition (56 seats) nor the Labour-led bloc (57 seats) would reach the 61 needed for a majority, putting the Opportunity Party (5.5%) in a potential kingmaker role.
Writ Day
Governance
Governor-General issues the formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election. The writ sets the nomination closing date; candidate nominations close October 8.
Labour releases election fiscal plan
Policy
Labour's plan scraps National's Investment Boost and adds a capital gains tax to fund its promises. It keeps the $2.4 billion operating allowance set at Budget 2026 and forecasts a return to surplus in 2028/29.
ACT launches campaign, vows to change Kiwisaver
Campaign
At its campaign launch, ACT promised to scrap tax on Kiwisaver earnings and end Government contributions to the retirement savings scheme.
Parliament dissolved, campaign begins
Governance
Governor-General Cindy Kiro signs the proclamation ending the 54th Parliament, starting the formal campaign.
Curia poll: NZ First surges, coalition on 65 seats
Poll
The Taxpayers' Union Curia survey put National at 28.5% and Labour at 28.2%, with New Zealand First up 3.6 points to 12%. The Coalition would hold 65 seats and the left bloc 55; the pollster saw a 42% chance the Opportunity Party clears the 5% threshold.
Luxon calls election 'very, very tight'
Campaign
Luxon conceded the election was 'very, very tight' with about a month to go, per Politik.
Scenarios
1
Labour-led bloc forms the next government
Possible
Resolves by Nov 25, 2026
Discussed by: Preliminary results reported by BBC News, November 7
Preliminary results give Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori 64 seats, three short of the 67 held by National, ACT and New Zealand First. Labour would need Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori to govern, and Opportunity says it will talk to the largest party first.
2
Luxon's coalition returns for a second term
Possible
Resolves by Nov 25, 2026
Discussed by: Preliminary results reported by BBC News and The Guardian, November 7
Preliminary results give National 42 seats, ACT 13 and New Zealand First 12, a combined 67 seats in a 131-seat Parliament. That is enough for a narrow majority, though special votes counted before November 27 could change the total.
3
Hung Parliament breaks the two-bloc alignment
Unlikely
Resolves by Nov 25, 2026
Discussed by: RNZ notes the blocs have ruled each other out as coalition partners, which leaves no obvious kingmaker if neither side reaches 61 seats.
With New Zealand First and Labour refusing to work together, and ACT and Te Pāti Māori similarly aligned to opposite blocs, a hung result would force a break in the stated lines of the campaign. Parties would either have to reverse their exclusions and negotiate or face an unstable minority government with the prospect of an early return to the polls.
4
Opportunity Party holds the balance of power
Deadline passed (Nov 7, 2026)
Discussed by: BBC News and The Guardian, November 7
Opportunity won 5.96% and seven seats. Preliminary results give the National-led bloc 67 seats, so Opportunity's leverage depends on special votes eroding that majority or on National reversing its refusal to work with the party.
5
Voter pressure pushes National to soften its line on Opportunity
Possible
Resolves by Nov 20, 2026
Discussed by: 1News Verian poll, published October 6
The Verian poll found 40% of voters think Luxon should reconsider his refusal to work with the Opportunity Party, against 33% who say he should hold firm. If the final result leaves no other route to 62 seats, National may face pressure to drop its 'no new taxes' rule or hand power to Labour.
6
Late deciders hand one bloc a majority
Deadline passed (Nov 7, 2026)
Discussed by: The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted October 9-19
The survey found 15% of voters undecided and about a third making up their minds in the previous few months; half planned to vote on election day rather than early. A swing of that size could turn a near-tied Parliament into a workable majority for one side.
7
Special votes change the shape of Parliament
Possible
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
Discussed by: The Guardian and BBC News, November 7
Hundreds of thousands of special votes, including overseas ballots, are counted before the official result on November 27. They could shift the 67-seat National-led majority or the 64-seat opposition bloc.
8
National and Opportunity agree a confidence-and-supply deal
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Qiulae Wong and Christopher Luxon, November 8
Luxon said a deal was 'highly unlikely' but that he wanted to build a relationship with Wong. Wong said a coalition, confidence and supply agreement or sitting on the cross benches were all options. A deal would likely require National to accept some of Opportunity's tax policies.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1972-1975
Last single-term government ousted (1972-1975)
Labour under Norman Kirk won the 1972 election. Kirk died in office in 1974, Bill Rowling took over, and National's Robert Muldoon won the 1975 election, ending the government after one term.
Then
Muldoon led National for a full decade, until Labour's David Lange won in 1984.
Now
No New Zealand government has been removed after a single three-year term since.
Why this matters now
The 2026 election could end that record, which is why the tight polls matter.
2 of 3
1996
First MMP election makes coalitions the norm (1996)
New Zealand switched from first-past-the-post to mixed-member proportional representation, making it nearly impossible for one party to govern alone. Winston Peters' New Zealand First became the first MMP kingmaker, joining a coalition with National.
Then
Coalition government became the standard in New Zealand politics.
Now
Three decades on, every government is a coalition, and the 2026 race is again a two-bloc fight.
Why this matters now
It explains why a near-tie in seats can still produce stable government through coalitions, and why Peters has again been central to the arithmetic.
3 of 3
2017
The kingmaker election (2017)
National won the most seats in the 2017 election but could not form a government. Winston Peters chose to back Labour's Jacinda Ardern, who became prime minister with Green and New Zealand First support.
Then
A Labour-led government formed despite finishing second in seats.
Now
Established that coalitions, not raw seat counts, decide New Zealand governments.
Why this matters now
Peters is again a pivotal figure, but this time he has ruled out Labour, leaving two aligned blocs.
