1
Voters approve Proposition A, new map takes effect
Possible
Resolves by Nov 10, 2026
Discussed by: Republican state legislators and Trump allies quoted in The Missouri Times
Missouri voters approve the Republican-drawn map on November 3. The map takes effect 30 days after the election, so it would apply starting with the 2028 cycle. Approval would validate the legislature's redistricting push but wouldn't change the 2026 election, which will use the 2022 districts.
2
Voters reject the map, 2022 districts stay
Uncertain
Resolves by Nov 10, 2026
Discussed by: People Not Politicians and redistricting reform advocates
Missouri voters reject Proposition A. The 2022 map remains in effect, and Republicans lose the extra House seat they had drawn. A rejection would mark the first time voters have overturned a congressional map since 1922 and could encourage similar referendum challenges in other states.
3
U.S. Supreme Court intervenes before the election
Unlikely
Resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Discussed by: Hoskins, per Sedalia Democrat and St. Louis Post-Dispatch coverage
Hoskins files an emergency appeal arguing the state court's ruling makes timely elections impossible under federal law. If the Supreme Court grants a stay, the new map could return for November despite the pending referendum. The court would need to act by early October for the change to be practical.
4
8th Circuit blocks federal TRO, 2022 map returns for November
Possible
Resolves by Sep 22, 2026
Discussed by: People Not Politicians, per STLPR
The 8th Circuit could stay or reverse Clark's order, returning Missouri to the 2022 map for November. The PAC filed an emergency appeal on September 8, arguing the state Supreme Court's ruling is the final word on which map is legal.
5
HB 1 map used for November despite pending referendum
Possible
Resolves by Nov 3, 2026
Discussed by: Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Gov. Mike Kehoe, per Democracy Docket
If Clark's order survives appeal, Missouri will hold the November election under the Republican-drawn map even though voters will also decide its fate as Proposition A. State officials say switching maps between the primary and general election would be unworkable.