1
Ninja Theory and Undead Labs find buyers
Likely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Bloomberg, The Game Business
Microsoft says both studios are being sold to undisclosed buyers with deals pending, and that new owners have funded their upcoming games. If those sales close and get announced, this resolves yes. The studios have titles slated for 2027, which gives buyers a reason to move.
2
Arkane Lyon is divested or closed
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Variety, Windows Central
Arkane Lyon, the French studio behind Dishonored, is under review through a required works-council consultation rather than a confirmed sale. That process can end in a sale, a spin-off, or a closure. This resolves yes if Microsoft confirms Arkane Lyon leaves the company by any of those routes.
3
Microsoft completes all 3,200 gaming cuts
Likely
Resolves by Jul 31, 2027
Discussed by: CNBC, Bloomberg
Only 1,600 of the announced 3,200 gaming cuts took effect immediately. Microsoft says the rest come by June 30, 2027. This resolves yes if the company confirms it has carried out the full total, or a number at or above it, within its stated window.
4
Microsoft announces another gaming cut within a year
Uncertain
Resolves by Jul 6, 2027
Discussed by: Forbes (Paul Tassi), industry analysts
This is the fourth major gaming layoff round since the Activision deal closed. Some analysts expect the pattern to continue as Microsoft keeps steering money to AI. This resolves yes if Microsoft announces a further, separate round of gaming layoffs beyond the 3,200 already disclosed.
5
Arkane Lyon merges with MachineGames
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Windows Central, gagadget, vpesports
Jerk Gustafsson now leads both MachineGames and Arkane Lyon. Several outlets read this as preparation for a formal merger rather than a sale or closure. Microsoft has not confirmed it. A merger would resolve Arkane's works-council process without requiring a third-party buyer.