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Pakistan's campaign against Imran Khan

Pakistan's campaign against Imran Khan

Force in Play

The Jailing of a Former Prime Minister and His Movement

Overview

Updated Nov 1

Pakistan's Supreme Court ordered the government on Aug 18 to move Imran Khan to Shifa International Hospital for a medical assessment, let his family visit weekly and let him call his two sons twice a week. The government says it complied by sending him to a state-run hospital instead, but the bench said in open court that the order had not been carried out. No court has held a hearing on it since mid-September, Sach Suno reported.

Khan's son Sulaiman said on Oct 29 that no relative had seen or heard from him since August, and blamed army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for ignoring the order. In Lahore, the provincial government told the High Court it had renewed the detention of Khan's three sisters for another 30 days; Noreen Niazi, 70, was moved to a cardiac hospital on Oct 28.

Why it matters

Khan's three-year imprisonment is Pakistan's test of whether a military establishment can keep crushing its largest opposition and still call itself a democracy.

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Key Indicators

30+
Years in prison sentences across multiple cases
14 years Al-Qadir Trust (Jan 2025), 17 years Toshakhana 2 (Dec 2024), plus other convictions
92
National Assembly seats won by PTI-backed independents
Most of any party in Feb 2024 election, yet locked out of government by coalition
12+
Deaths during November 2024 protests
PTI confirms fatalities when supporters marched on Islamabad demanding Khan's release
85
Civilians sentenced by military courts
For attacking army facilities after Khan's arrest; trials condemned by US, UK, EU
1,184
Days in detention as of Nov 1, 2026
Held since August 5, 2023; a UN expert called his solitary confinement torture
75
Days since the Supreme Court ordered his hospital transfer
Ordered to Shifa International on Aug 18, 2026 with weekly family visits and calls to his sons; no contempt hearing reported since mid-September
3
Khan's sisters held under repeated detention orders
Punjab renewed all three for another 30 days on Oct 7; Noreen Niazi was taken to a cardiac hospital on Oct 28

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

August 2018 October 2026

41 events Latest: October 30th, 2026 · 1 week ago Showing 8 of 41
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  1. Khan's Son Says Family Has Had No Contact Since August

    Political

    Sulaiman Khan said in posts on X that nobody in the family had seen or heard from his father since August, repeated his father's account of being tortured, and blamed army chief Asim Munir for ignoring the court order.

  2. Opposition Alliance Suspends Talks Over Khan's Access

    Political

    TTAP, the alliance chaired by Mahmood Khan Achakzai, halted all negotiations until Khan meets his family and doctors. It also demanded the release of his sisters and of detained Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi, the provincial assembly speaker and PTI's provincial president.

  3. Parliament Endorses Emergency Rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

    Political

    The National Assembly and Senate approved the emergency proclamation for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by majority vote, nine days after the federal government imposed it along with governor's rule.

  4. PTI Demands Confidence-Building Measures Before Talks

    Political

    PTI asked the government to reverse what it called unlawful measures, restore its mandate in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and release political prisoners, and to let Khan meet his lawyers and family and be treated by his own physicians.

  5. PTI Seeks Sisters' Release and Restoration of Bushra Bibi Visits

    Political

    PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan approached government authorities asking for the release of Khan's three sisters and the restoration of his meetings with Bushra Bibi, party sources said.

  6. National Strike Called to Demand Khan's Release

    Protest

    The PTI-led TTAP alliance scheduled a national strike for February 8, coinciding with the second anniversary of the 2024 elections, demanding Khan's release and withdrawal of all charges.

  7. Khan Turns 73 Behind Bars

    Political

    Khan marked his 73rd birthday at Adiala Jail; supporters held rallies and prayer gatherings in Lahore and Balochistan.

  8. PTI Withdraws from Negotiations

    Political

    PTI chairman announces withdrawal from talks following Khan's instructions after government refuses to form judicial commission investigating violence.

  9. PTI Presents Charter of Demands in Third Round of Talks

    Political

    Third round of government-PTI negotiations held; PTI demands judicial commissions to investigate May 9, 2023 and November 26, 2024 violence.

  10. Prime Minister Forms Negotiation Committee

    Political

    Shehbaz Sharif forms 8-member committee including Deputy PM Ishaq Dar to hold talks with PTI, offering dialogue to ease political tension.

  11. Khan Defers Civil Disobedience Movement

    Political

    Khan postpones planned December 14 civil disobedience campaign 'for a few days' at party leaders' request.

  12. UN Expert Condemns Khan's Detention as Torture

    International

    UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Alice Jill Edwards condemns 23-hour daily solitary confinement as psychological torture, citing lack of natural light, poor ventilation, extreme temperatures.

  13. Khan Threatens Civil Disobedience Starting December 14

    Political

    Khan announces civil disobedience movement if demands unmet, targeting overseas remittances worth $30 billion annually.

  14. Violent Crackdown on Islamabad Protesters

    Violence

    Security forces clear D-Chowk after midnight. At least 12 dead, 110 injured. PTI leaders flee.

  15. PTI Launches 'Final Call' March

    Protest

    Bushra Bibi and CM Gandapur lead thousands toward Islamabad demanding Khan's release.

  16. Shehbaz Sharif Forms Coalition Government

    Political

    PML-N leader becomes PM with 201 votes, excluding PTI despite its electoral plurality.

  17. PTI-Backed Independents Win Most Seats

    Political

    Despite party symbol ban and Khan's jailing, backed candidates win 92 seats. Observers cite rigging.

  18. PTI Supporters Storm Military Sites

    Violence

    Protesters torch army headquarters gate, military commander's mansion. Rs 2.5 billion in damage.

  19. Khan Survives Assassination Attempt

    Violence

    Gunman wounds Khan during protest march; he blames government and military officials.

  20. Khan Ousted in No-Confidence Vote

    Political

    Parliament removes Khan 174-0 after military withdraws support. He claims U.S.-backed conspiracy.

  21. Imran Khan Becomes Prime Minister

    Political

    Khan takes office after PTI wins July election with military backing, promising to root out corruption.

Scenarios

1

Khan Dies or Serves Decades in Prison, PTI Fractures

Possible

Discussed by: Middle East Institute analysts, regional observers concerned about PTI's organizational capacity

At 73, Khan could spend the rest of his life imprisoned if convictions stand. Without his charismatic leadership, PTI might splinter as happened to previous Pakistani opposition movements. The establishment has used this playbook before—neutralize the leader, co-opt or intimidate lieutenants, wait for the movement to exhaust itself. Mass trials of supporters create additional chilling effect. The military accepts short-term international criticism for long-term political stability. Within 3-5 years, PTI becomes another minor opposition party. Khan becomes a footnote rather than a martyr.

2

Sustained Unrest Forces Compromise: Khan Released Under Restrictions

Possible

Discussed by: Al Jazeera, Pakistan analysts examining escalating protest cycle and economic impact

Continued protests damage Pakistan's economy and international reputation at a time when it needs IMF support and foreign investment. The establishment offers a face-saving exit: Khan accepts some convictions in exchange for release with political ban. Similar to Nawaz Sharif's exile deals. Khan remains influential from the sidelines but can't hold office. This buys time but doesn't resolve the underlying crisis—PTI supporters still feel cheated of election victory, and Khan's popularity persists. Unstable equilibrium.

3

Protest Movement Escalates Into Sustained Civil Disobedience

Unlikely

Discussed by: Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, observers of November 2024 violence noting radicalization

Each crackdown makes PTI supporters more determined. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under CM Gandapur becomes a defiant power base, creating a federalism crisis. Youth who've seen military courts try civilians and elections rigged lose faith in institutions. Low-level violence becomes routine—attacks on government buildings, strikes, road blockades. Pakistan faces the sustained unrest that has plagued it during previous political crises, but this time with social media amplifying everything. Economic crisis deepens. Military eventually backs negotiations, but from a weaker position.

4

Appellate Courts Overturn Major Convictions, Khan Walks Free

Uncertain

Discussed by: Legal analysts noting two previous overturned convictions; Khan's lawyers citing weak evidence

Higher courts have already overturned two Khan convictions for lack of evidence. If appellate judges assert independence from political pressure, they could void the Toshakhana and Al-Qadir cases as well. Pakistan's judiciary has oscillated between submission to military pressure and assertions of autonomy. A sufficiently bold bench could rule the prosecution politically motivated and order release. This would trigger a new constitutional crisis—does the military accept the decision or find new charges? But it's the legal path out, and it has precedent.

5

Civil Disobedience Campaign Triggers Economic Crisis

Possible

Discussed by: PTI leadership, economic analysts concerned about remittance boycott impact

Khan activates his threatened civil disobedience movement, calling on overseas Pakistanis to halt the $30 billion annual remittances that prop up Pakistan's fragile economy. Even partial compliance—10-20% reduction—would devastate foreign reserves and currency stability. The government faces a choice: release Khan or watch the economy collapse while seeking another IMF bailout. International lenders pressure both sides to negotiate. This economic leverage could force concessions that street protests couldn't achieve, but risks pushing Pakistan into deeper crisis.

6

KP Takeover Provokes Wider Resistance

Uncertain Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: PTI leaders; PILDAT analyst Aasiya Riaz and LUMS lawyer Hassan Abdullah Niazi quoted by Al Jazeera

The federal takeover of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the only province PTI governed, may radicalize supporters and deepen Pakistan's federalism crisis. PTI plans a court challenge and says its long march to free Khan continues, while the suspended chief minister and cabinet members sit in preventive custody. If courts reject the challenge and the crackdown holds, the opposition's options narrow to protest or submission.

7

Lahore High Court Orders Khan's Sisters Released

Deadline passed (Oct 28, 2026)

Discussed by: PTI lawyers and the petitioners challenging the sisters' detention

Their 30-day orders under the Punjab public order law lapsed on Oct 19 and 20, but the province renewed all three for another 30 days and told the Lahore High Court so on Oct 26. Noreen Niazi, 70, was moved to a cardiac hospital on Oct 28. On Oct 30 the court directed her lawyer to file a separate application for treatment and family meetings, leaving the release question open.

8

Khan Is Moved to Shifa and Sees His Family

Uncertain Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: PTI lawyers and the petitioners who filed contempt pleas over the August order

The Aug 18 order named Shifa International Hospital and set weekly family meetings and twice-weekly calls with Khan's sons. The government took him to the state-run PIMS instead, citing security. If either court enforces the order, Khan gets an outside medical assessment and contact with his family for the first time since August.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1977-1979

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Execution (1979)

Pakistan's elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was overthrown in a 1977 military coup by General Zia-ul-Haq. Zia charged Bhutto with ordering the murder of a political opponent, convicted him in a rushed trial that international observers called a sham, and hanged him in April 1979 despite global appeals for clemency. The military eliminated Pakistan's most popular civilian leader.

Then

Military consolidated power for next 11 years; Bhutto became a martyr.

Now

His daughter Benazir eventually became prime minister; the Bhutto name remains powerful. The execution remains controversial and widely seen as judicial murder.

Why this matters now

Shows Pakistan's pattern of using courts to eliminate popular leaders. Khan's supporters see the same playbook—except this time the leader isn't being hanged, just imprisoned until irrelevant.

1990-2007

Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif Persecution Cycles

For nearly two decades, Pakistan's two main civilian leaders—Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif—alternated between power and persecution. Each was twice elected prime minister, twice ousted on corruption charges, arrested, tried, convicted, and at times exiled. Benazir spent years in jail and exile; Nawaz was overthrown by the military in 1999, convicted, and exiled to Saudi Arabia for a decade. Both faced dozens of corruption cases that appeared and disappeared based on political winds.

Then

Military maintained ultimate control while allowing facade of democracy.

Now

Both parties survived; Benazir was assassinated in 2007 but her PPP endures; Nawaz's PML-N currently governs. The pattern normalized corruption charges as political weapons.

Why this matters now

Khan now experiences the same treatment he once criticized. The difference: social media mobilizes his supporters faster and the military's legitimacy is weaker. But the playbook is identical.

2013-2016

Turkish Military's Failed Erdogan Removal (2013-2016)

Turkey's powerful military and judiciary launched corruption probes in 2013 against Prime Minister (later President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his inner circle, attempting to force him from power. Prosecutors filed charges, allies were arrested, and it appeared the establishment might succeed. But Erdogan had built a mass movement and controlled enough institutions. He weathered the storm, then survived a 2016 coup attempt. He then systematically purged opponents and consolidated authoritarian control.

Then

Erdogan survived both legal persecution and coup attempt.

Now

Turkey transformed from struggling democracy into competitive authoritarianism. Erdogan still rules in 2024, having turned the tables on his opponents.

Why this matters now

Demonstrates that establishment campaigns against popular leaders can fail if the leader maintains mass support and institutions fracture. Also shows the winner often doesn't restore democracy—they centralize power. If Khan eventually prevails, would he show restraint or seek revenge?

Sources

(35)