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England and Wales begin early release of thousands of prisoners

England and Wales begin early release of thousands of prisoners

Rule Changes

Ministry of Justice admits wrongful releases are more likely; hundreds still untagged

October 20th, 2026: Ministry of Justice admits risk of wrongful releases

Overview

Updated Oct 21

About 650 prisoners left jails in England and Wales on 13 October in the second wave of early releases, taking the total freed so far to roughly 1,350. Prisons held 87,033 people on 12 October, 97.8% of usable capacity, and about 4,500 releases are planned by next summer.

On 20 October the Ministry of Justice said recalculating release dates, and Andy Burnham's late exemptions for about 1,400 offenders, had raised the risk of prisoners being freed in error or held unlawfully. MPs say hundreds of those already out are not tagged, probation staff are balloting on strikes, and three men and a woman freed in the first wave were back in custody within days.

Why it matters

Thousands of prisoners are being released into a probation system that MPs, inspectors and its own staff say cannot track or supervise them.

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Key Indicators

97.8%
Prison capacity reached
Prison population stood at 87,033 on 12 October 2026, 97.8% of useable capacity.
4,500
Prisoners due for early release
Scheduled across monthly waves between October 2026 and June 2027, down from about 6,000 after exemptions.
1,350
Freed in the first two waves
About 700 left on 1 October and about 650 on 13 October, including violent offenders and domestic abusers.
1,400
Offenders exempted
Killers, rapists and child sex abusers removed from eligibility by Andy Burnham's August 2026 review.
100,000
Projected prison population by 2030
Government projections despite the early release scheme.
51,419
Licence recalls year to March 2026
Up 28% from the previous year; about one in ten for committing another offence.

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People Involved

Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
In office; his late exemptions are cited by officials as raising the risk of wrongful releases
 Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
Former Prime Minister
Government introduced the Sentencing Act 2026
MJ
Martin Jones
Independent Inspector of the Probation Service
Has publicly questioned whether the system can cope
VP
Victims of released prisoners
Partners and family members of inmates freed early
Have spoken publicly of fear after release of partners
 Alex Norris
Alex Norris
Justice Secretary of the United Kingdom
Says tagging count for early releases is not yet available
RP
Released prisoners
Inmates freed under the early release scheme
Mixed reactions; some doubt they will stay out of prison
 Claire Waxman
Claire Waxman
Victims' Commissioner for England and Wales
Has questioned government's confidence in early release plan
NT
Nick Timothy
Shadow Justice Secretary
Criticized tagging failures in Commons
 Jake Richards
Jake Richards
Justice Minister
Defended tagging improvements

Organizations Involved

Ministry of Justice (Thailand)
Ministry of Justice (Thailand)
Government ministry
Admitted that recalculating release dates raised the risk of wrongful releases

The UK government department responsible for prisons, courts and sentencing in England and Wales.
HM Prison and Probation Service
HM Prison and Probation Service
Government agency
Says recalculating release dates raised the risk of error

The agency that supervises offenders after release and can recall them to prison for breaches.
UK Parliament
UK Parliament
Legislature
Passed the enabling legislation

Passed the Sentencing Act 2026, which created the current early release scheme.
Seco (Barr Seco)
Seco (Barr Seco)
Wine bar
Denies tagging failures

Serco is the outsourcing company contracted to fit electronic monitoring tags on released prisoners in England and Wales.
NA
Napo
Trade union
Strike ballot opened 19 October after members rejected a 5% pay offer

Probation officers' union in England and Wales.

Timeline

October 2023 June 2027

13 events Latest: October 20th, 2026 · 3 weeks ago Showing 8 of 13
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Final wave of 250 due

    Upcoming Legal

    Most serious fixed-term offenders, serving more than 12 years, leave at half their sentence instead of two-thirds.

  2. Ministry of Justice admits risk of wrongful releases

    Latest Policy

    The department and HM Prison and Probation Service said recalculating release dates, and Andy Burnham's exemptions made weeks after launch, had significantly heightened the risk of releases in error and unlawful detentions.

  3. Watchdog reports AI role in release decisions

    Policy

    The National Audit Office said an AI transcription tool, Justice Transcribe, was speeding probation decisions in the release process. The Institute for Government warned that exemptions and thin spare capacity could leave prisons short of cells again.

  4. Second wave of 650 due

    Legal

    Prisoners serving between 19 months and two years and five months become eligible.

  5. Second wave of early releases begins

    Legal

    About 2,000 prisoners, including domestic abusers and violent offenders, are due for release this month. Another 3,000 follow over the next year.

  6. MPs say hundreds of released prisoners not tagged

    Policy

    During an urgent question in the Commons, MPs said stalkers and violent offenders are not being tagged. Serco denies failures; justice minister Jake Richards says there has been improvement since March.

  7. Probation union moves toward strike ballot

    Labor

    Napo holds pre-ballot meeting on strike action over pay and workloads. Formal ballot launches October 19 after rejecting a 5% pay offer.

  8. Justice secretary cannot confirm tagging numbers

    Policy

    Alex Norris told the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg it was 'too soon' to say how many of the 700 prisoners released on October 1 were fitted with electronic monitoring devices.

  9. First 700 prisoners released

    Legal

    Opening wave of ten; prisoners serving up to 19 months leave under electronic tagging and licence conditions.

  10. Three released prisoners back in custody in Humberside

    Legal

    Police said a woman and two men freed on 1 October were arrested days later for burglary, drunk and disorderly behaviour and fraud, and returned to prison.

  11. Burnham narrows the scheme

    Policy

    Cuts expected releases to 4,500 and excludes manslaughter and grooming offenses after public pressure.

  12. Labour starts emergency 40% release

    Policy

    On taking power, Labour found virtually no free cells and released offenders at 40% of sentence.

  13. Conservative government launches early release scheme

    Policy

    Freed more than 10,000 prisoners over the following year to ease crowding.

Scenarios

1

Reoffending spike forces scheme suspension

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: BBC News, victim advocacy groups

A high-profile crime by a released prisoner, or a spike in licence recalls, could push the government to cancel later waves. Recall numbers are already high: 51,419 in the year to March 2026, up 28%. The scheme runs in ten separate waves, so the government could halt it mid-course.

2

Scheme completes but prison population still tops 100,000

Likely Resolves by Jan 1, 2030

Discussed by: Ministry of Justice projections

Government projections show the prison population still rising to roughly 100,000 by 2030 even with early release. If that holds, the scheme has bought time rather than solved the underlying problem. A £7 billion building programme aims to deliver 14,000 extra cells by then.

3

Probation failures force street releases and emergency recalls

Possible Resolves by End of 2026

Discussed by: Martin Jones, HM Inspectorate of Probation, The Guardian

Probation officers in some areas report hostel places are full and fear releasing prisoners straight to the street. Martin Jones, the service's independent inspector, says he is not fully confident the system can manage the influx. If released prisoners lack accommodation or breach conditions, mass recalls could follow.

4

Tagging gap leaves released prisoners unsupervised

Deadline passed (Nov 1, 2026)

Discussed by: The Guardian

The government promised a 'presumption of electronic tagging' for prisoners released early. Three days after the first wave, Justice Secretary Alex Norris said it was 'too soon' to know how many of the 700 were actually tagged. If tagging rates fall short, victims who fear their released abusers get less protection than promised.

5

Probation strike disrupts supervision of released prisoners

Possible Resolves by Nov 30, 2026

Discussed by: Napo union, Ministry of Justice

If Napo members vote for industrial action, supervision of released prisoners could be severely disrupted. The union says workloads are already unsustainable. A strike would likely lead to more breaches going unpunished and could increase reoffending risk.

6

Wrongful releases trigger legal challenge and a court-ordered review

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Ministry of Justice, HM Prison and Probation Service, penal reform groups

The department has said recalculating release dates and late exemptions raised the risk of prisoners being freed by mistake or held past their correct date. Either kind of error can be challenged in court, and a successful challenge would force the service to recheck every release date calculated since October.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 2023 – September 2024

Conservative early release scheme (2023–2024)

Facing full jails, the Conservative government freed more than 10,000 prisoners under a year-long programme. Offenders were released on licence with conditions and could be recalled for breaches.

Then

The scheme eased immediate crowding but did not stop the population from climbing.

Now

It set the precedent for large-scale early release that the current Labour scheme continues.

Why this matters now

The direct predecessor to today's scheme, showing early release alone has not ended the capacity crisis.

July 2024 – September 2024

Labour's emergency 40% release (2024)

On taking office in July 2024, Labour found virtually no free cells across England and Wales. It launched an emergency scheme releasing some offenders at 40% of their sentence rather than 50%.

Then

Averted an immediate shortage of cells that summer.

Now

Led to the permanent Sentencing Act 2026 now in effect.

Why this matters now

The stopgap that evolved into today's permanent early release programme.

Sources

(20)
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BBC News BBC News The Guardian The Independent The Telegraph North Wales Live Channel 4 News The National Wales Online BBC News BBC News The Guardian BBC News BBC News The Guardian The Guardian BBC News The Telegraph BBC News BBC News