1
Court signs off and all 548 sentences become life without parole
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Governor's office, Habeas Corpus Resource Center, ACLU
Four or more justices recommend commutation for the 382 people with multiple felonies, and Newsom issues certificates for them plus the roughly 166 he can act on alone. The death row population converts to life without parole, and the state's death penalty statute remains on the books but unused.
2
Court splits, leaving hundreds of death sentences in place
Uncertain
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Law.com, CalMatters reporting on the court's review
The court has no procedure for a single request covering hundreds of people and is short one justice. It could decline to recommend, recommend only some, or ask the governor to submit individual requests. Any of those outcomes leaves a substantial part of death row under sentence of death.
3
Legislature or voters abolish the death penalty outright
Unlikely
Resolves by Nov 30, 2028
Discussed by: Los Angeles County District Attorney Nathan Hochman
Hochman's objection points to the gap the commutations leave open: the statute survives, so future prosecutors can still seek death sentences. Closing that gap requires a ballot measure or legislation, which would make the commutations permanent as a matter of state law rather than case-by-case clemency.
4
Prosecutors' lawsuit blocks or delays the commutations
Uncertain
Resolves by Jan 5, 2027
Discussed by: Riverside County District Attorney Mike Hestrin, the California District Attorneys Association, the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation
Hestrin says district attorneys are looking at filing a case and hope it reaches the U.S. Supreme Court. Former Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert plans to sue to block the commutations on behalf of crime victims, arguing they were not given sufficient notice. A court could also find that commuting 382 sentences in one blanket request, without individual review, is an abuse of power.
5
The request lapses on January 3 and the death sentences stand
Possible
Resolves by Jan 3, 2027
Discussed by: The Sacramento Bee, reporting on the court's schedule
Newsom leaves office on January 3, and his commutation request does not carry over to the next governor. If the Supreme Court has not recommended commutation by then, the 382 cases it covers stay under sentence of death unless his successor resubmits them.